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The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Identifieur interne : 006158 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 006157; suivant : 006159

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Auteurs : Rustom Antia [États-Unis] ; Roland R. Regoes [États-Unis] ; Jacob C. Koella [France] ; Carl T. Bergstrom [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:B2ECA2C749C5053BC902B2C0A301F073D95FB8B3

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English descriptors


Url:
DOI: 10.1038/nature02104

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ISTEX:B2ECA2C749C5053BC902B2C0A301F073D95FB8B3

Le document en format XML

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<term>Communicable Diseases (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Communicable Diseases (genetics)</term>
<term>Communicable Diseases (transmission)</term>
<term>Ecosystem</term>
<term>Emerging disease</term>
<term>Evolution</term>
<term>Host-Parasite Interactions</term>
<term>Human</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infection</term>
<term>Models, Biological</term>
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<term>Stochastic Processes</term>
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<term>Maladies transmissibles (transmission)</term>
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<term>Mutation (génétique)</term>
<term>Probabilité</term>
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<term>Écosystème</term>
<term>Évolution biologique</term>
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<term>Communicable Diseases</term>
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<term>Emerging disease</term>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population' and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission
<sup>2</sup>
. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R
<sub>0</sub>
, should exceed one, where R
<sub>0</sub>
is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population
<sup>3</sup>
. However, an increase in R
<sub>0</sub>
, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R
<sub>0</sub>
> 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.</div>
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