SrasV1, Main, Merge, bibRecord, 006663

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Identifieur interne : 006663 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 006662; suivant : 006664

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Auteurs : Rustom Antia [États-Unis] ; Roland R. Regoes [États-Unis] ; Jacob C. Koella [France] ; Carl T. Bergstrom [États-Unis]

Source :

Nature [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2003-12-11.

RBID : ISTEX:B2ECA2C749C5053BC902B2C0A301F073D95FB8B3

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Animaux, Humains, Interactions hôte-parasite, Maladies transmissibles (génétique), Maladies transmissibles (transmission), Maladies transmissibles (épidémiologie), Modèles biologiques, Mutation (génétique), Probabilité, Processus stochastiques, Écosystème, Évolution biologique.
MESH :
- génétique : Maladies transmissibles, Mutation.
- épidémiologie : Maladies transmissibles.
- Animaux, Humains, Interactions hôte-parasite, Modèles biologiques, Probabilité, Processus stochastiques, Écosystème, Évolution biologique.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Animals, Biological Evolution, Communicable Diseases (epidemiology), Communicable Diseases (genetics), Communicable Diseases (transmission), Ecosystem, Host-Parasite Interactions, Humans, Models, Biological, Mutation (genetics), Probability, Stochastic Processes.
MESH :
- epidemiology : Communicable Diseases.
- genetics : Communicable Diseases, Mutation.
- transmission : Communicable Diseases.
- Animals, Biological Evolution, Ecosystem, Host-Parasite Interactions, Humans, Models, Biological, Probability, Stochastic Processes.

Url:

DOI: 10.1038/nature02104

Links to Exploration step

ISTEX:B2ECA2C749C5053BC902B2C0A301F073D95FB8B3

Le document en format XML

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<term>Stochastic Processes</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR1">1</xref>
</sup>
 and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR2">2</xref>
</sup>
. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, should exceed one, where <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR3">3</xref>
</sup>
. However, an increase in <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.</p>
<sec><title>Supplementary information</title>
<p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature02104) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

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