SrasV1, Main, Merge, bibRecord, 006874

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Identifieur interne : 006874 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 006873; suivant : 006875

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Auteurs : Rustom Antia [États-Unis] ; Roland R. Regoes [États-Unis] ; Jacob C. Koella [France] ; Carl T. Bergstrom [États-Unis]

Source :

Nature : (London) [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2003.

RBID : Pascal:04-0302322

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Maladie émergente, Infection, Evolution, Article synthèse, Homme.
Wicri :
- topic : Homme.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Emerging disease, Evolution, Human, Infection, Review.

Abstract

It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population' and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission². Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R₀, should exceed one, where R₀ is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population³. However, an increase in R₀, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R₀ > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.

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Pascal:04-0302322

Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population' and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission<sup>2</sup>
. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R<sub>0</sub>
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 is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population<sup>3</sup>
. However, an increase in R<sub>0</sub>
, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R<sub>0</sub>
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The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

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