The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases
Identifieur interne : 000925 ( PascalFrancis/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000924; suivant : 000926The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases
Auteurs : Rustom Antia [États-Unis] ; Roland R. Regoes [États-Unis] ; Jacob C. Koella [France] ; Carl T. Bergstrom [États-Unis]Source :
- Nature : (London) [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2003.
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- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Homme.
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Abstract
It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population' and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission2. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R0, should exceed one, where R0 is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population3. However, an increase in R0, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R0 > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.
Affiliations:
- France, États-Unis
- Washington (État), Île-de-France
- Paris, Seattle
- Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie, Université de Washington
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Bergstrom</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Department of Biology, University of Washington</s1><s2>Seattle, Washington 98195</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno><idno type="inist">04-0302322</idno><date when="2003">2003</date><idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 04-0302322 INIST</idno><idno type="RBID">Pascal:04-0302322</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">000885</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Curation">000105</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Checkpoint">000925</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PascalFrancis" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000925</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases</title><author><name sortKey="Antia, Rustom" sort="Antia, Rustom" uniqKey="Antia R" first="Rustom" last="Antia">Rustom Antia</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biology, Emory University</s1><s2>Atlanta, Georgia 30322</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Atlanta, Georgia 30322</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Regoes, Roland R" sort="Regoes, Roland R" uniqKey="Regoes R" first="Roland R." last="Regoes">Roland R. Regoes</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biology, Emory University</s1><s2>Atlanta, Georgia 30322</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Atlanta, Georgia 30322</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Koella, Jacob C" sort="Koella, Jacob C" uniqKey="Koella J" first="Jacob C." last="Koella">Jacob C. Koella</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire de Parasitologie Evolutive, Université Pierre et Marie Curie</s1><s2>75252 Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><placeName><region type="region" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bergstrom, Carl T" sort="Bergstrom, Carl T" uniqKey="Bergstrom C" first="Carl T." last="Bergstrom">Carl T. Bergstrom</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Department of Biology, University of Washington</s1><s2>Seattle, Washington 98195</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement><region type="state">Washington (État)</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Nature : (London)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Nature : (Lond.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno><imprint><date when="2003">2003</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Nature : (London)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Nature : (Lond.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Emerging disease</term><term>Evolution</term><term>Human</term><term>Infection</term><term>Review</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Maladie émergente</term><term>Infection</term><term>Evolution</term><term>Article synthèse</term><term>Homme</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Homme</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population' and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission<sup>2</sup>. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R<sub>0</sub>, should exceed one, where R<sub>0</sub> is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population<sup>3</sup>. However, an increase in R<sub>0</sub>, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R<sub>0</sub> > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.</div></front></TEI><inist><standard h6="B"><pA><fA01 i1="01" i2="1"><s0>0028-0836</s0></fA01><fA02 i1="01"><s0>NATUAS</s0></fA02><fA03 i2="1"><s0>Nature : (Lond.)</s0></fA03><fA05><s2>426</s2></fA05><fA06><s2>6967</s2></fA06><fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases</s1></fA08><fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>ANTIA (Rustom)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>REGOES (Roland R.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>KOELLA (Jacob C.)</s1></fA11><fA11 i1="04" i2="1"><s1>BERGSTROM (Carl T.)</s1></fA11><fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Biology, Emory University</s1><s2>Atlanta, Georgia 30322</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire de Parasitologie Evolutive, Université Pierre et Marie Curie</s1><s2>75252 Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA14 i1="03"><s1>Department of Biology, University of Washington</s1><s2>Seattle, Washington 98195</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></fA14><fA20><s1>658-661</s1></fA20><fA21><s1>2003</s1></fA21><fA23 i1="01"><s0>ENG</s0></fA23><fA43 i1="01"><s1>INIST</s1><s2>142</s2><s5>354000115831770210</s5></fA43><fA44><s0>0000</s0><s1>© 2004 INIST-CNRS. 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Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R<sub>0</sub>, should exceed one, where R<sub>0</sub> is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population<sup>3</sup>. However, an increase in R<sub>0</sub>, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. 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Bergstrom</name><name sortKey="Regoes, Roland R" sort="Regoes, Roland R" uniqKey="Regoes R" first="Roland R." last="Regoes">Roland R. Regoes</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Koella, Jacob C" sort="Koella, Jacob C" uniqKey="Koella J" first="Jacob C." last="Koella">Jacob C. Koella</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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