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Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection

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Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection

Auteurs : Kun Lin [République populaire de Chine] ; Daniel Yee-Tak Fong [République populaire de Chine] ; Biliu Zhu [République populaire de Chine] ; Johan Karlberg [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2005.

RBID : PMC:2870397

Abstract

SUMMARY

The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870397

DOI: 10.1017/S0950268805005054
PubMed: 16490124
PubMed Central: 2870397

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PMC:2870397

Le document en format XML

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<author><name sortKey="Lin, Kun" sort="Lin, Kun" uniqKey="Lin K" first="Kun" last="Lin">Kun Lin</name>
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<p>The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.</p>
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<pmc article-type="research-article" xml:lang="EN"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
  <front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Epidemiol Infect</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">HYG</journal-id>
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<title-group><article-title>Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">K. Lin and others</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running">Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic</alt-title>
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<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>LIN</surname>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>YEE-TAK FONG</surname>
<given-names>DANIEL</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003">3</xref>
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<given-names>BILIU</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001">1</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>KARLBERG</surname>
<given-names>JOHAN</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003">3</xref>
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<aff id="aff001"><label>1</label>
Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, PR China</aff>
<aff id="aff002"><label>2</label>
Department of Nursing Studies, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China</aff>
<aff id="aff003"><label>3</label>
Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor001"><label>*</label>
Author for correspondence: Dr Lin Kun, Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, 22, Xin Ling Road, Shantou 515031, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China. (Email: <email xlink:href="klin@stu.edu.cn">klin@stu.edu.cn</email>
)</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>4</month>
<year>2006</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>07</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>134</volume>
<issue>2</issue>
<fpage>223</fpage>
<lpage>230</lpage>
<history><date date-type="accepted"><day>15</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2005</year>
</date>
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<copyright-statement>© Cambridge University Press 2005</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2005</copyright-year>
<self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="S0950268805005054a.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract abstract-type="normal"><title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="8"></page-count>
</counts>
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</front>
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Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection

Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection

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Abstract

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