Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS
Identifieur interne : 000C02 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C01; suivant : 000C03Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS
Auteurs : K. Glass [Australie] ; N. G. Becker [Australie]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3–23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2–17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268806005863
PubMed: 16476169
PubMed Central: 2870475
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Epidemiol Infect</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">HYG</journal-id><journal-title>Epidemiology and Infection</journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">0950-2688</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1469-4409</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Cambridge University Press</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Cambridge, UK</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">16476169</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2870475</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1017/S0950268806005863</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pii">S0950268806005863</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">00586</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">K. Glass and N. G. Becker</alt-title><alt-title alt-title-type="right-running">Reducing international spread of SARS</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>GLASS</surname><given-names>K.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>BECKER</surname><given-names>N. G.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff001">National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor001"><label>*</label>Author for correspondence: Dr K. Glass, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Email: <email xlink:href="kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au">kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>10</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>14</day><month>2</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><volume>134</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>1092</fpage><lpage>1101</lpage><history><date date-type="accepted"><day>23</day><month>11</month><year>2005</year></date></history><copyright-statement>© Cambridge University Press 2006</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2006</copyright-year><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="S0950268806005863a.pdf"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="normal"><title>SUMMARY</title><p>Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3–23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2–17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.</p></abstract><counts><page-count count="10"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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