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Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection

Identifieur interne : 000C03 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 000C02; suivant : 000C04

Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection

Auteurs : Kun Lin ; Daniel Yee-Tak Fong ; Biliu Zhu ; Johan Karlberg

Source :

RBID : PMC:2870397

Abstract

SUMMARY

The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.


Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268805005054
PubMed: 16490124
PubMed Central: 2870397

Links to Exploration step

PMC:2870397

Le document en format XML

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<name sortKey="Zhu, Biliu" sort="Zhu, Biliu" uniqKey="Zhu B" first="Biliu" last="Zhu">Biliu Zhu</name>
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<name sortKey="Karlberg, Johan" sort="Karlberg, Johan" uniqKey="Karlberg J" first="Johan" last="Karlberg">Johan Karlberg</name>
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<title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.</p>
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<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Epidemiol Infect</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">HYG</journal-id>
<journal-title>Epidemiology and Infection</journal-title>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0950-2688</issn>
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<article-title>Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">K. Lin and others</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running">Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic</alt-title>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001">1</xref>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003">3</xref>
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Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, PR China</aff>
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Department of Nursing Studies, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China</aff>
<aff id="aff003">
<label>3</label>
Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China</aff>
<author-notes>
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<label>*</label>
Author for correspondence: Dr Lin Kun, Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, 22, Xin Ling Road, Shantou 515031, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China. (Email:
<email xlink:href="klin@stu.edu.cn">klin@stu.edu.cn</email>
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<pub-date pub-type="ppub">
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<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2005</year>
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<volume>134</volume>
<issue>2</issue>
<fpage>223</fpage>
<lpage>230</lpage>
<history>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>15</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2005</year>
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<copyright-statement>© Cambridge University Press 2005</copyright-statement>
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<title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.</p>
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