Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS
Identifieur interne : 001134 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 001133; suivant : 001135Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS
Auteurs : K. Glass [Australie] ; N. G. Becker [Australie]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3–23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2–17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268806005863
PubMed: 16476169
PubMed Central: 2870475
Affiliations:
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PMC:2870475Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3–23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2–17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.</p>
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Epidemiol Infect</journal-id>
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<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">K. Glass and N. G. Becker</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running">Reducing international spread of SARS</alt-title>
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Author for correspondence: Dr K. Glass, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Email: <email xlink:href="kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au">kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au</email>
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<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>14</day>
<month>2</month>
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<volume>134</volume>
<issue>5</issue>
<fpage>1092</fpage>
<lpage>1101</lpage>
<history><date date-type="accepted"><day>23</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2005</year>
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<copyright-statement>© Cambridge University Press 2006</copyright-statement>
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<abstract abstract-type="normal"><title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3–23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2–17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.</p>
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