Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
Identifieur interne : 004858 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 004857; suivant : 004859Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
Auteurs : J. O. Lloyd-Smith [États-Unis] ; S. J. Schreiber [États-Unis] ; P. E. Kopp [Royaume-Uni] ; W. M. Getz [États-Unis]Source :
- Nature [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2005.
Abstract
From Typhoid Mary to SARS, it has long been known that some people spread disease more than others. But for diseases transmitted via casual contact, contagiousness arises from a plethora of social and physiological factors, so epidemiologists have tended to rely on population averages to assess a disease's potential to spread. A new analysis of outbreak data shows that individual differences in infectiousness exert powerful influences on the epidemiology of ten deadly diseases. SARS and measles (and perhaps avian influenza) show strong tendencies towards ‘superspreading events’ that can ignite explosive epidemics — but this same volatility makes outbreaks more likely to fizzle out. Smallpox and pneumonic plague, two potential bioterrorism agents, show steadier growth but still differ markedly from the traditional average-based view. These findings are relevant to how emerging diseases are detected and controlled.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature04153) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/nature04153
PubMed: 16292310
PubMed Central: 7094981
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000449
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000449
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 001219
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 001265
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 001265
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 001265
Links to Exploration step
PMC:7094981Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence</title><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, J O" sort="Lloyd Smith, J O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J" first="J. O." last="Lloyd-Smith">J. O. Lloyd-Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.47840.3f</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2181 7878</institution-id><institution>Department of Environmental Science,</institution><institution>Policy and Management, University of California,</institution></institution-wrap>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.47840.3f</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2181 7878</institution-id><institution>Biophysics Graduate Group,</institution><institution>University of California,</institution></institution-wrap>California 94720-3200 Berkeley, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>California 94720-3200 Berkeley</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schreiber, S J" sort="Schreiber, S J" uniqKey="Schreiber S" first="S. J." last="Schreiber">S. J. Schreiber</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.264889.9</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 1940 3051</institution-id><institution>Department of Mathematics,</institution><institution>The College of William and Mary,</institution></institution-wrap>Virginia 23187-8975 Williamsburg, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Virginia 23187-8975 Williamsburg</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kopp, P E" sort="Kopp, P E" uniqKey="Kopp P" first="P. E." last="Kopp">P. E. Kopp</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff4"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9481.4</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 0412 8669</institution-id><institution>Centre for Mathematics,</institution><institution>University of Hull,</institution></institution-wrap>HU6 7RX Hull, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>HU6 7RX Hull</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Getz, W M" sort="Getz, W M" uniqKey="Getz W" first="W. M." last="Getz">W. M. Getz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.47840.3f</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2181 7878</institution-id><institution>Department of Environmental Science,</institution><institution>Policy and Management, University of California,</institution></institution-wrap>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">16292310</idno><idno type="pmc">7094981</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094981</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7094981</idno><idno type="doi">10.1038/nature04153</idno><date when="2005">2005</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000449</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000449</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000449</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000449</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">001219</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001219</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001265</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001265</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001265</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0028-0836:2005:Lloyd Smith J:superspreading:and:the</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">004858</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence</title><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, J O" sort="Lloyd Smith, J O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J" first="J. O." last="Lloyd-Smith">J. O. Lloyd-Smith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.47840.3f</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2181 7878</institution-id><institution>Department of Environmental Science,</institution><institution>Policy and Management, University of California,</institution></institution-wrap>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.47840.3f</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2181 7878</institution-id><institution>Biophysics Graduate Group,</institution><institution>University of California,</institution></institution-wrap>California 94720-3200 Berkeley, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>California 94720-3200 Berkeley</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schreiber, S J" sort="Schreiber, S J" uniqKey="Schreiber S" first="S. J." last="Schreiber">S. J. Schreiber</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.264889.9</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 1940 3051</institution-id><institution>Department of Mathematics,</institution><institution>The College of William and Mary,</institution></institution-wrap>Virginia 23187-8975 Williamsburg, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Virginia 23187-8975 Williamsburg</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kopp, P E" sort="Kopp, P E" uniqKey="Kopp P" first="P. E." last="Kopp">P. E. Kopp</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff4"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9481.4</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 0412 8669</institution-id><institution>Centre for Mathematics,</institution><institution>University of Hull,</institution></institution-wrap>HU6 7RX Hull, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>HU6 7RX Hull</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Getz, W M" sort="Getz, W M" uniqKey="Getz W" first="W. M." last="Getz">W. M. Getz</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.47840.3f</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2181 7878</institution-id><institution>Department of Environmental Science,</institution><institution>Policy and Management, University of California,</institution></institution-wrap>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>140 Mulford Hall, California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>California 94720-3114 Berkeley</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Nature</title><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno><idno type="eISSN">1476-4687</idno><imprint><date when="2005">2005</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Coughs and sneezes...</title><p id="Par1">From Typhoid Mary to SARS, it has long been known that some people spread disease more than others. But for diseases transmitted via casual contact, contagiousness arises from a plethora of social and physiological factors, so epidemiologists have tended to rely on population averages to assess a disease's potential to spread. A new analysis of outbreak data shows that individual differences in infectiousness exert powerful influences on the epidemiology of ten deadly diseases. SARS and measles (and perhaps avian influenza) show strong tendencies towards ‘superspreading events’ that can ignite explosive epidemics — but this same volatility makes outbreaks more likely to fizzle out. Smallpox and pneumonic plague, two potential bioterrorism agents, show steadier growth but still differ markedly from the traditional average-based view. These findings are relevant to how emerging diseases are detected and controlled.</p><sec><title>Supplementary information</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature04153) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Levin, Sa" uniqKey="Levin S">SA Levin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grenfell, B" uniqKey="Grenfell B">B Grenfell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hastings, A" uniqKey="Hastings A">A Hastings</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perelson, As" uniqKey="Perelson A">AS Perelson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Becker, Ng" uniqKey="Becker N">NG Becker</name></author><author><name sortKey="Britton, T" uniqKey="Britton T">T Britton</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="May, Rm" uniqKey="May R">RM May</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O Diekmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Jap" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">JAP Heesterbeek</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Leo, Ys" uniqKey="Leo Y">YS Leo</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shen, Z" uniqKey="Shen Z">Z Shen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dye, C" uniqKey="Dye C">C Dye</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gay, N" uniqKey="Gay N">N Gay</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bauch, Ct" uniqKey="Bauch C">CT Bauch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coffee, M" uniqKey="Coffee M">M Coffee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Galvani, Ap" uniqKey="Galvani A">AP Galvani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Koopman, J" uniqKey="Koopman J">J Koopman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="May, Rm" uniqKey="May R">RM May</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Woolhouse, Mej" uniqKey="Woolhouse M">MEJ Woolhouse</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Getz, Wm" uniqKey="Getz W">WM Getz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Westerhoff, Hv" uniqKey="Westerhoff H">HV Westerhoff</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gani, R" uniqKey="Gani R">R Gani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leach, S" uniqKey="Leach S">S Leach</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Becker, N" uniqKey="Becker N">N Becker</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marschner, I" uniqKey="Marschner I">I Marschner</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Becker, N" uniqKey="Becker N">N Becker</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bailey, Ntj" uniqKey="Bailey N">NTJ Bailey</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Keeling, Mj" uniqKey="Keeling M">MJ Keeling</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grenfell, Bt" uniqKey="Grenfell B">BT Grenfell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lloyd, Al" uniqKey="Lloyd A">AL Lloyd</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Meyers, La" uniqKey="Meyers L">LA Meyers</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pourbohloul, B" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B">B Pourbohloul</name></author><author><name sortKey="Newman, Mej" uniqKey="Newman M">MEJ Newman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Skowronski, Dm" uniqKey="Skowronski D">DM Skowronski</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brunham, Rc" uniqKey="Brunham R">RC Brunham</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Boswell, Mt" uniqKey="Boswell M">MT Boswell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Patil, Gp" uniqKey="Patil G">GP Patil</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Burnham, Kp" uniqKey="Burnham K">KP Burnham</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Dr" uniqKey="Anderson D">DR Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Galvani, Ap" uniqKey="Galvani A">AP Galvani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Getz, Wm" uniqKey="Getz W">WM Getz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P Teunis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ha, Ld" uniqKey="Ha L">LD Ha</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Park, Bj" uniqKey="Park B">BJ Park</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghani, Ac" uniqKey="Ghani A">AC Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Farrington, Cp" uniqKey="Farrington C">CP Farrington</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kanaan, Mn" uniqKey="Kanaan M">MN Kanaan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gay, Nj" uniqKey="Gay N">NJ Gay</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Main/Merge
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 004858 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Merge/biblio.hfd -nk 004858 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= SrasV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Merge
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:7094981
|texte= Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Merge/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:16292310" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Merge/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SrasV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |