Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
Identifieur interne : 001265 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 001264; suivant : 001266Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence
Auteurs : J. O. Lloyd-Smith [États-Unis] ; S. J. Schreiber [États-Unis] ; P. E. Kopp [Royaume-Uni] ; W. M. Getz [États-Unis]Source :
- Nature [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2005.
Abstract
From Typhoid Mary to SARS, it has long been known that some people spread disease more than others. But for diseases transmitted via casual contact, contagiousness arises from a plethora of social and physiological factors, so epidemiologists have tended to rely on population averages to assess a disease's potential to spread. A new analysis of outbreak data shows that individual differences in infectiousness exert powerful influences on the epidemiology of ten deadly diseases. SARS and measles (and perhaps avian influenza) show strong tendencies towards ‘superspreading events’ that can ignite explosive epidemics — but this same volatility makes outbreaks more likely to fizzle out. Smallpox and pneumonic plague, two potential bioterrorism agents, show steadier growth but still differ markedly from the traditional average-based view. These findings are relevant to how emerging diseases are detected and controlled.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature04153) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/nature04153
PubMed: 16292310
PubMed Central: 7094981
Affiliations:
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PMC:7094981Le document en format XML
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<p id="Par1">From Typhoid Mary to SARS, it has long been known that some people spread disease more than others. But for diseases transmitted via casual contact, contagiousness arises from a plethora of social and physiological factors, so epidemiologists have tended to rely on population averages to assess a disease's potential to spread. A new analysis of outbreak data shows that individual differences in infectiousness exert powerful influences on the epidemiology of ten deadly diseases. SARS and measles (and perhaps avian influenza) show strong tendencies towards ‘superspreading events’ that can ignite explosive epidemics — but this same volatility makes outbreaks more likely to fizzle out. Smallpox and pneumonic plague, two potential bioterrorism agents, show steadier growth but still differ markedly from the traditional average-based view. These findings are relevant to how emerging diseases are detected and controlled.</p>
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<p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature04153) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p>
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