Transmission and control of an emerging influenza pandemic in a small-world airline network
Identifieur interne : 000900 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000899; suivant : 000901Transmission and control of an emerging influenza pandemic in a small-world airline network
Auteurs : Chaug-Ing Hsu ; Hsien-Hung ShihSource :
- Accident; Analysis and Prevention [ 0001-4575 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
The avian influenza virus H5N1 and the 2009 swine flu H1N1 are potentially serious pandemic threats to human health, and air travel readily facilitates the spread of infectious diseases. However, past studies have not yet incorporated the effects of air travel on the transmission of influenza in the construction of mathematical epidemic models. Therefore, this paper focused on the human-to-human transmission of influenza, and investigated the effects of air travel activities on an influenza pandemic in a small-world network. These activities of air travel include passengers’ consolidation, conveyance and distribution in airports and flights. Dynamic transmission models were developed to assess the expected burdens of the pandemic, with and without control measures. This study also investigated how the small-world properties of an air transportation network facilitate the spread of influenza around the globe. The results show that, as soon as the influenza is spread to the top 50 global airports, the transmission is greatly accelerated. Under the constraint of limited resources, a strategy that first applies control measures to the top 50 airports after day 13 and then soon afterwards to all other airports may result in remarkable containment effectiveness. As the infectiousness of the disease increases, it will expand the scale of the pandemic, and move the start time of the pandemic ahead.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.004
PubMed: 19887149
PubMed Central: 7124216
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Transmission and control of an emerging influenza pandemic in a small-world airline network</title><author><name sortKey="Hsu, Chaug Ing" sort="Hsu, Chaug Ing" uniqKey="Hsu C" first="Chaug-Ing" last="Hsu">Chaug-Ing Hsu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shih, Hsien Hung" sort="Shih, Hsien Hung" uniqKey="Shih H" first="Hsien-Hung" last="Shih">Hsien-Hung Shih</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">19887149</idno><idno type="pmc">7124216</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124216</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7124216</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.004</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000900</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000900</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000900</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000900</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Transmission and control of an emerging influenza pandemic in a small-world airline network</title><author><name sortKey="Hsu, Chaug Ing" sort="Hsu, Chaug Ing" uniqKey="Hsu C" first="Chaug-Ing" last="Hsu">Chaug-Ing Hsu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shih, Hsien Hung" sort="Shih, Hsien Hung" uniqKey="Shih H" first="Hsien-Hung" last="Shih">Hsien-Hung Shih</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Accident; Analysis and Prevention</title><idno type="ISSN">0001-4575</idno><idno type="eISSN">1879-2057</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The avian influenza virus H5N1 and the 2009 swine flu H1N1 are potentially serious pandemic threats to human health, and air travel readily facilitates the spread of infectious diseases. However, past studies have not yet incorporated the effects of air travel on the transmission of influenza in the construction of mathematical epidemic models. Therefore, this paper focused on the human-to-human transmission of influenza, and investigated the effects of air travel activities on an influenza pandemic in a small-world network. These activities of air travel include passengers’ consolidation, conveyance and distribution in airports and flights. Dynamic transmission models were developed to assess the expected burdens of the pandemic, with and without control measures. This study also investigated how the small-world properties of an air transportation network facilitate the spread of influenza around the globe. The results show that, as soon as the influenza is spread to the top 50 global airports, the transmission is greatly accelerated. Under the constraint of limited resources, a strategy that first applies control measures to the top 50 airports after day 13 and then soon afterwards to all other airports may result in remarkable containment effectiveness. As the infectiousness of the disease increases, it will expand the scale of the pandemic, and move the start time of the pandemic ahead.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Allen, L J S" uniqKey="Allen L">L.J.S. Allen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burgin, A M" uniqKey="Burgin A">A.M. Burgin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bell, D M" uniqKey="Bell D">D.M. Bell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Capua, I" uniqKey="Capua I">I. Capua</name></author><author><name sortKey="Alexander, D J" uniqKey="Alexander D">D.J. Alexander</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Centers For Disease Control And Prevention" uniqKey="Centers For Disease Control And Prevention">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Colizza, V" uniqKey="Colizza V">V. Colizza</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Colizza, V" uniqKey="Colizza V">V. Colizza</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Daley, D J" uniqKey="Daley D">D.J. Daley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gani, J" uniqKey="Gani J">J. Gani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, N M" uniqKey="Ferguson N">N.M. Ferguson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Frauenthal, J C" uniqKey="Frauenthal J">J.C. Frauenthal</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsu, C I" uniqKey="Hsu C">C.I. Hsu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shih, H H" uniqKey="Shih H">H.H. Shih</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Industrial Technology Research Institute" uniqKey="Industrial Technology Research Institute">Industrial Technology Research Institute</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="King, C C" uniqKey="King C">C.C. King</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kuperman, M" uniqKey="Kuperman M">M. Kuperman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Abramson, G" uniqKey="Abramson G">G. Abramson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ligon, B L" uniqKey="Ligon B">B.L. Ligon</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Massad, E" uniqKey="Massad E">E. Massad</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Meijer, A" uniqKey="Meijer A">A. Meijer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mendez, V" uniqKey="Mendez V">V. Méndez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fort, J" uniqKey="Fort J">J. Fort</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Olsen, S J" uniqKey="Olsen S">S.J. Olsen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Saram Ki, J" uniqKey="Saram Ki J">J. Saramäki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kaski, K" uniqKey="Kaski K">K. Kaski</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Small, M" uniqKey="Small M">M. Small</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tse, C K" uniqKey="Tse C">C.K. Tse</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Watts, D J" uniqKey="Watts D">D.J. Watts</name></author><author><name sortKey="Strogatz, S H" uniqKey="Strogatz S">S.H. Strogatz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhang, J Y" uniqKey="Zhang J">J.Y. Zhang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Accid Anal Prev</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Accid Anal Prev</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Accident; Analysis and Prevention</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0001-4575</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1879-2057</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">19887149</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7124216</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0001-4575(09)00171-7</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.004</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Transmission and control of an emerging influenza pandemic in a small-world airline network</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hsu</surname><given-names>Chaug-Ing</given-names></name><email>cihsu@mail.nctu.edu.tw</email><xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Shih</surname><given-names>Hsien-Hung</given-names></name><email>u9132523.tem91g@nctu.edu.tw</email></contrib></contrib-group><aff>Department of Transportation Technology and Management, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta Hsueh Road, Hsinchu 30010, Taiwan, ROC</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author. Tel.: +886 3 5731672; fax: +886 3 5720844. <email>cihsu@mail.nctu.edu.tw</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>28</day><month>7</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>1</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>7</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><volume>42</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>93</fpage><lpage>100</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>24</day><month>3</month><year>2009</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>19</day><month>6</month><year>2009</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>12</day><month>7</month><year>2009</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2009</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Elsevier Ltd</copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>The avian influenza virus H5N1 and the 2009 swine flu H1N1 are potentially serious pandemic threats to human health, and air travel readily facilitates the spread of infectious diseases. However, past studies have not yet incorporated the effects of air travel on the transmission of influenza in the construction of mathematical epidemic models. Therefore, this paper focused on the human-to-human transmission of influenza, and investigated the effects of air travel activities on an influenza pandemic in a small-world network. These activities of air travel include passengers’ consolidation, conveyance and distribution in airports and flights. Dynamic transmission models were developed to assess the expected burdens of the pandemic, with and without control measures. This study also investigated how the small-world properties of an air transportation network facilitate the spread of influenza around the globe. The results show that, as soon as the influenza is spread to the top 50 global airports, the transmission is greatly accelerated. Under the constraint of limited resources, a strategy that first applies control measures to the top 50 airports after day 13 and then soon afterwards to all other airports may result in remarkable containment effectiveness. As the infectiousness of the disease increases, it will expand the scale of the pandemic, and move the start time of the pandemic ahead.</p></abstract><kwd-group><title>Keywords</title><kwd>Dynamic model</kwd><kwd>Epidemic</kwd><kwd>Air travel</kwd><kwd>Connectivity</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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