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Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

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Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

Auteurs : E. Vynnycky [Royaume-Uni] ; W. J. Edmunds [Royaume-Uni]

Source :

Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2008.

RBID : ISTEX:9338A20EEA9C3C279578F406072107FE644E1B06

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control (methods), Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Schools, Time Factors, United Kingdom (epidemiology).
MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human, United Kingdom.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Schools, Time Factors.

Abstract

Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R0 for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.

Url:

DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807008369

Affiliations:

Le document en format XML

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Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

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