Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
Identifieur interne : 004D53 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004D52; suivant : 004D54Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
Auteurs : E. Vynnycky [Royaume-Uni] ; W. J. Edmunds [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2008.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (), Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs de l'âge, Facteurs temps, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Incidence, Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Nourrisson, Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie), Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Établissements scolaires.
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Royaume-Uni.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs de l'âge, Facteurs temps, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Humains, Incidence, Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Nourrisson, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Établissements scolaires.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control (methods), Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Schools, Time Factors, United Kingdom (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human, United Kingdom.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Schools, Time Factors.
Abstract
Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R0 for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.
Url:
- https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/6GQ-6D6T2HHF-C/fulltext.pdf
- http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870798
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807008369
Affiliations:
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R0 for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.</div>
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