Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
Identifieur interne : 000E12 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000E11; suivant : 000E13Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
Auteurs : E. Vynnycky [Royaume-Uni] ; W. J. Edmunds [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2007.
Abstract
Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807008369
PubMed: 17445311
PubMed Central: 2870798
Affiliations:
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.</p>
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<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">E. Vynnycky and W. J. Edmunds</alt-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="right-running">Influenza pandemics and school closures</alt-title>
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<given-names>E.</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref>
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<aff id="aff001">Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London, UK</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor001"><label>*</label>
Author for correspondence: Dr E. Vynnycky, Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, 61 Colindale Avenue, Colindale, London NW9 5HT, UK. (Email: <email xlink:href="emilia.vynnycky@hpa.org.uk">emilia.vynnycky@hpa.org.uk</email>
)</corresp>
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<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>2</month>
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<volume>136</volume>
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<year>2007</year>
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<copyright-statement>Cambridge University Press</copyright-statement>
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<abstract><title>SUMMARY</title>
<p>Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.</p>
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