Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
Identifieur interne : 000510 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000509; suivant : 000511Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures
Auteurs : E. Vynnycky [Royaume-Uni] ; W. J. Edmunds [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Epidemiology and Infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2007.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (), Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs de l'âge, Facteurs temps, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Incidence, Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Nourrisson, Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie), Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Établissements scolaires.
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Royaume-Uni.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs de l'âge, Facteurs temps, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Humains, Incidence, Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Nourrisson, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Établissements scolaires.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control (methods), Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Schools, Time Factors, United Kingdom (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human, United Kingdom.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Schools, Time Factors.
Abstract
Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (
Url:
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268807008369
PubMed: 17445311
PubMed Central: 2870798
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PMC:2870798Le document en format XML
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We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.</p></div></front></TEI><double pmid="17445311"><pmc><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures</title><author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, E" sort="Vynnycky, E" uniqKey="Vynnycky E" first="E." last="Vynnycky">E. Vynnycky</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff001">Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W J" sort="Edmunds, W J" uniqKey="Edmunds W" first="W. J." last="Edmunds">W. J. Edmunds</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff001">Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">17445311</idno><idno type="pmc">2870798</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870798</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2870798</idno><idno type="doi">10.1017/S0950268807008369</idno><date when="2007">2007</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000519</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000519</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000519</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000519</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000E12</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000E12</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures</title><author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, E" sort="Vynnycky, E" uniqKey="Vynnycky E" first="E." last="Vynnycky">E. Vynnycky</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff001">Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W J" sort="Edmunds, W J" uniqKey="Edmunds W" first="W. J." last="Edmunds">W. J. Edmunds</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff001">Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemiology and Infection</title><idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno><idno type="eISSN">1469-4409</idno><imprint><date when="2007">2007</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>SUMMARY</title><p>Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.</p></div></front></TEI></pmc><pubmed><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures.</title><author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, E" sort="Vynnycky, E" uniqKey="Vynnycky E" first="E" last="Vynnycky">E. Vynnycky</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London, UK. emilia.vynnycky@hpa.org.uk</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W J" sort="Edmunds, W J" uniqKey="Edmunds W" first="W J" last="Edmunds">W J Edmunds</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2008">2008</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:17445311</idno><idno type="pmid">17445311</idno><idno type="doi">10.1017/S0950268807008369</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">001B46</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001B46</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">001B46</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">001B46</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">001853</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">001853</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures.</title><author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, E" sort="Vynnycky, E" uniqKey="Vynnycky E" first="E" last="Vynnycky">E. Vynnycky</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London, UK. emilia.vynnycky@hpa.org.uk</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, Colindale, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W J" sort="Edmunds, W J" uniqKey="Edmunds W" first="W J" last="Edmunds">W J Edmunds</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemiology and infection</title><idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno><imprint><date when="2008" type="published">2008</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Age Factors</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (methods)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Infant</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Schools</term><term>Time Factors</term><term>United Kingdom (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses ()</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Facteurs de l'âge</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Grippe humaine ()</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie)</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Établissements scolaires</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term><term>United Kingdom</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Royaume-Uni</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Age Factors</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Infant</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Schools</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Facteurs de l'âge</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Établissements scolaires</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R0 for Asian influenza was about 1.8 and 60-65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2.5 or 3.5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1.8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.</div></front></TEI></pubmed></double></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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