Multiple Contributory Factors to the Age Distribution of Disease Cases: A Modeling Study in the Context of Influenza A(H3N2v)
Identifieur interne : 001798 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001797; suivant : 001799Multiple Contributory Factors to the Age Distribution of Disease Cases: A Modeling Study in the Context of Influenza A(H3N2v)
Auteurs : Manoj Gambhir [États-Unis, Royaume-Uni] ; David L. Swerdlow [États-Unis] ; Lyn Finelli [États-Unis] ; Maria D. Van Kerkhove [Royaume-Uni] ; Matthew Biggerstaff [États-Unis] ; Simon Cauchemez [Royaume-Uni] ; Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Clinical infectious diseases [ 1058-4838 ] ; 2013.
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- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Homme.
English descriptors
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Abstract
Background. In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults. Methods. We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution. Results and Conclusions. Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.
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Swerdlow</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Modeling Unit, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1><s2>Atlanta, Georgia</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Finelli, Lyn" sort="Finelli, Lyn" uniqKey="Finelli L" first="Lyn" last="Finelli">Lyn Finelli</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1><s2>Atlanta, Georgia</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" sort="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M" first="Maria D." last="Van Kerkhove">Maria D. Van Kerkhove</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London</s1><s3>GBR</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:noRegion>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, Matthew" sort="Biggerstaff, Matthew" uniqKey="Biggerstaff M" first="Matthew" last="Biggerstaff">Matthew Biggerstaff</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</s1><s2>Atlanta, Georgia</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London</s1><s3>GBR</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:noRegion>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London</s1><s3>GBR</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:noRegion>MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Clinical infectious diseases</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Clin. infect. dis.</title><idno type="ISSN">1058-4838</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Clinical infectious diseases</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Clin. infect. dis.</title><idno type="ISSN">1058-4838</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Age distribution</term><term>Case study</term><term>Human</term><term>Influenza A</term><term>Modeling</term><term>Multiple</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe A</term><term>Multiple</term><term>Classe âge</term><term>Etude cas</term><term>Modélisation</term><term>Homme</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Homme</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background. In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults. Methods. We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution. Results and Conclusions. Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)"><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name></region><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, Matthew" sort="Biggerstaff, Matthew" uniqKey="Biggerstaff M" first="Matthew" last="Biggerstaff">Matthew Biggerstaff</name><name sortKey="Finelli, Lyn" sort="Finelli, Lyn" uniqKey="Finelli L" first="Lyn" last="Finelli">Lyn Finelli</name><name sortKey="Swerdlow, David L" sort="Swerdlow, David L" uniqKey="Swerdlow D" first="David L." last="Swerdlow">David L. Swerdlow</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M." last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" sort="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M" first="Maria D." last="Van Kerkhove">Maria D. Van Kerkhove</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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