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Multiple Contributory Factors to the Age Distribution of Disease Cases: A Modeling Study in the Context of Influenza A(H3N2v)

Identifieur interne : 001B93 ( PascalFrancis/Curation ); précédent : 001B92; suivant : 001B94

Multiple Contributory Factors to the Age Distribution of Disease Cases: A Modeling Study in the Context of Influenza A(H3N2v)

Auteurs : Manoj Gambhir [États-Unis, Royaume-Uni] ; David L. Swerdlow [États-Unis] ; Lyn Finelli [États-Unis] ; Maria D. Van Kerkhove [Royaume-Uni] ; Matthew Biggerstaff [États-Unis] ; Simon Cauchemez [Royaume-Uni] ; Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni]

Source :

RBID : Pascal:13-0281409

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Background. In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults. Methods. We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution. Results and Conclusions. Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.
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A11 03  1    @1 FINELLI (Lyn)
A11 04  1    @1 VAN KERKHOVE (Maria D.)
A11 05  1    @1 BIGGERSTAFF (Matthew)
A11 06  1    @1 CAUCHEMEZ (Simon)
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A14 03      @1 Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention @2 Atlanta, Georgia @3 USA @Z 3 aut. @Z 5 aut.
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C01 01    ENG  @0 Background. In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults. Methods. We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution. Results and Conclusions. Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.
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C07 02  X  SPA  @0 Infección
N21       @1 266
N44 01      @1 OTO
N82       @1 OTO

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Pascal:13-0281409

Le document en format XML

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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background. In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults. Methods. We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution. Results and Conclusions. Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.</div>
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<s0>Múltiple</s0>
<s5>07</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="FRE">
<s0>Classe âge</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="ENG">
<s0>Age distribution</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="03" i2="X" l="SPA">
<s0>Clase edad</s0>
<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="FRE">
<s0>Etude cas</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="ENG">
<s0>Case study</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="04" i2="X" l="SPA">
<s0>Estudio caso</s0>
<s5>09</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="FRE">
<s0>Modélisation</s0>
<s5>13</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="ENG">
<s0>Modeling</s0>
<s5>13</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="05" i2="X" l="SPA">
<s0>Modelización</s0>
<s5>13</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="FRE">
<s0>Homme</s0>
<s5>30</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="ENG">
<s0>Human</s0>
<s5>30</s5>
</fC03>
<fC03 i1="06" i2="X" l="SPA">
<s0>Hombre</s0>
<s5>30</s5>
</fC03>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE">
<s0>Virose</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="ENG">
<s0>Viral disease</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="SPA">
<s0>Virosis</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="FRE">
<s0>Infection</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="ENG">
<s0>Infection</s0>
</fC07>
<fC07 i1="02" i2="X" l="SPA">
<s0>Infección</s0>
</fC07>
<fN21>
<s1>266</s1>
</fN21>
<fN44 i1="01">
<s1>OTO</s1>
</fN44>
<fN82>
<s1>OTO</s1>
</fN82>
</pA>
</standard>
</inist>
</record>

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