Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China
Identifieur interne : 000345 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000344; suivant : 000346Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China
Auteurs : Kun Su [République populaire de Chine] ; Liang Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Guanqiao Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaowen Ruan [République populaire de Chine] ; Xian Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Pan Deng [République populaire de Chine] ; Xinmi Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Qin Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Xianxian Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Yu Xiong [République populaire de Chine] ; Shaofeng Lu [République populaire de Chine] ; Li Qi [République populaire de Chine] ; Chaobo Shen [République populaire de Chine] ; Wenge Tang [République populaire de Chine] ; Rong Rong [République populaire de Chine] ; Boran Hong [République populaire de Chine] ; Yi Ning [République populaire de Chine] ; Dongyan Long [République populaire de Chine] ; Jiaying Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xuanling Shi [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhihong Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Qi Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Ziqi Zhuang [République populaire de Chine] ; Linqi Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jing Xiao [République populaire de Chine] ; Yafei Li [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- EBioMedicine [ 2352-3964 ] ; 2019.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- épidémiologie : Chine, Grippe humaine.
- Algorithmes, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Pandémies, Prévision, Surveillance de la population.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- methods : Forecasting, Population Surveillance.
- Algorithms, Humans, Models, Statistical, Pandemics.
Abstract
Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.
Multi-source electronic data, including historical percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%), weather data, Baidu search index and Sina Weibo data of Chongqing, China, were collected and integrated into an innovative Self-adaptive AI Model (SAAIM), which was constructed by integrating Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and XGBoost model using a self-adaptive weight adjustment mechanism. SAAIM was applied to ILI% forecast in Chongqing from 2017 to 2018, of which the performance was compared with three previously available models on forecasting.
ILI% showed an irregular seasonal trend from 2012 to 2018 in Chongqing. Compared with three reference models, SAAIM achieved the best performance on forecasting ILI% of Chongqing with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11·9%, 7·5%, and 11·9% during the periods of the year 2014–2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively. Among the three categories of source data, historical influenza activity contributed the most to the forecast accuracy by decreasing the MAPE by 19·6%, 43·1%, and 11·1%, followed by weather information (MAPE reduced by 3·3%, 17·1%, and 2·2%), and Internet-related public sentiment data (MAPE reduced by 1·1%, 0·9%, and 1·3%).
Accurate influenza forecast in areas with irregular seasonal influenza trends can be made by SAAIM with multi-source electronic data.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.08.024
PubMed: 31477561
PubMed Central: 6796527
Affiliations:
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China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Jiaying" sort="Xu, Jiaying" uniqKey="Xu J" first="Jiaying" last="Xu">Jiaying Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shi, Xuanling" sort="Shi, Xuanling" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xuanling" last="Shi">Xuanling Shi</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Zhihong" sort="Yang, Zhihong" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Zhihong" last="Yang">Zhihong Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, 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Zhuang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Linqi" sort="Zhang, Linqi" uniqKey="Zhang L" first="Linqi" last="Zhang">Linqi Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Jing" sort="Xiao, Jing" uniqKey="Xiao J" first="Jing" last="Xiao">Jing Xiao</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Yafei" sort="Li, Yafei" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yafei" last="Li">Yafei Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">31477561</idno><idno type="pmc">6796527</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6796527</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:6796527</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.08.024</idno><date when="2019">2019</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000A01</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000A01</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000A01</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000A01</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000073</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" 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activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China</title><author><name sortKey="Su, Kun" sort="Su, Kun" uniqKey="Su K" first="Kun" last="Su">Kun Su</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Liang" sort="Xu, Liang" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Liang" last="Xu">Liang Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Guanqiao" sort="Li, Guanqiao" uniqKey="Li G" first="Guanqiao" last="Li">Guanqiao Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ruan, Xiaowen" sort="Ruan, Xiaowen" uniqKey="Ruan X" first="Xiaowen" last="Ruan">Xiaowen Ruan</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xian" sort="Li, Xian" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xian" last="Li">Xian Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deng, Pan" sort="Deng, Pan" uniqKey="Deng P" first="Pan" last="Deng">Pan Deng</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xinmi" sort="Li, Xinmi" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xinmi" last="Li">Xinmi Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Qin" sort="Li, Qin" uniqKey="Li Q" first="Qin" last="Li">Qin Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xianxian" sort="Chen, Xianxian" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xianxian" last="Chen">Xianxian Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiong, Yu" sort="Xiong, Yu" uniqKey="Xiong Y" first="Yu" last="Xiong">Yu Xiong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Shaofeng" sort="Lu, Shaofeng" uniqKey="Lu S" first="Shaofeng" last="Lu">Shaofeng Lu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qi, Li" sort="Qi, Li" uniqKey="Qi L" first="Li" last="Qi">Li Qi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, Chaobo" sort="Shen, Chaobo" uniqKey="Shen C" first="Chaobo" last="Shen">Chaobo Shen</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tang, Wenge" sort="Tang, Wenge" uniqKey="Tang W" first="Wenge" last="Tang">Wenge Tang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rong, Rong" sort="Rong, Rong" uniqKey="Rong R" first="Rong" last="Rong">Rong Rong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0010">Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Boran" sort="Hong, Boran" uniqKey="Hong B" first="Boran" last="Hong">Boran Hong</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ning, Yi" sort="Ning, Yi" uniqKey="Ning Y" first="Yi" last="Ning">Yi Ning</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0025">Meinian Institute of Health, Beijing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Meinian Institute of Health, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Long, Dongyan" sort="Long, Dongyan" uniqKey="Long D" first="Dongyan" last="Long">Dongyan Long</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Jiaying" sort="Xu, Jiaying" uniqKey="Xu J" first="Jiaying" last="Xu">Jiaying Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shi, Xuanling" sort="Shi, Xuanling" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xuanling" last="Shi">Xuanling Shi</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Zhihong" sort="Yang, Zhihong" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Zhihong" last="Yang">Zhihong Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Qi" sort="Zhang, Qi" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qi" last="Zhang">Qi Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Ziqi" sort="Zhuang, Ziqi" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Ziqi" last="Zhuang">Ziqi Zhuang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Linqi" sort="Zhang, Linqi" uniqKey="Zhang L" first="Linqi" last="Zhang">Linqi Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0020">Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Jing" sort="Xiao, Jing" uniqKey="Xiao J" first="Jing" last="Xiao">Jing Xiao</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="af0015">Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Yafei" sort="Li, Yafei" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yafei" last="Li">Yafei Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af0005">Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">EBioMedicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2352-3964</idno><imprint><date when="2019">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Algorithms</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Forecasting (methods)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Population Surveillance (methods)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Algorithmes</term><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Prévision ()</term><term>Surveillance de la population ()</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Forecasting</term><term>Population Surveillance</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Algorithms</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Pandemics</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Algorithmes</term><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Prévision</term><term>Surveillance de la population</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Multi-source electronic data, including historical percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%), weather data, Baidu search index and Sina Weibo data of Chongqing, China, were collected and integrated into an innovative Self-adaptive AI Model (SAAIM), which was constructed by integrating Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and XGBoost model using a self-adaptive weight adjustment mechanism. SAAIM was applied to ILI% forecast in Chongqing from 2017 to 2018, of which the performance was compared with three previously available models on forecasting.</p></sec><sec><title>Findings</title><p>ILI% showed an irregular seasonal trend from 2012 to 2018 in Chongqing. Compared with three reference models, SAAIM achieved the best performance on forecasting ILI% of Chongqing with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11·9%, 7·5%, and 11·9% during the periods of the year 2014–2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively. Among the three categories of source data, historical influenza activity contributed the most to the forecast accuracy by decreasing the MAPE by 19·6%, 43·1%, and 11·1%, followed by weather information (MAPE reduced by 3·3%, 17·1%, and 2·2%), and Internet-related public sentiment data (MAPE reduced by 1·1%, 0·9%, and 1·3%).</p></sec><sec><title>Interpretation</title><p>Accurate influenza forecast in areas with irregular seasonal influenza trends can be made by SAAIM with multi-source electronic data.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dawood, F S" uniqKey="Dawood F">F.S. Dawood</name></author><author><name sortKey="Iuliano, A D" uniqKey="Iuliano A">A.D. 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