Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.
Identifieur interne : 000099 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000098; suivant : 000100Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.
Auteurs : Kun Su ; Liang Xu ; Guanqiao Li ; Xiaowen Ruan ; Xian Li ; Pan Deng ; Xinmi Li ; Qin Li ; Xianxian Chen ; Yu Xiong ; Shaofeng Lu ; Li Qi ; Chaobo Shen ; Wenge Tang ; Rong Rong ; Boran Hong ; Yi Ning ; Dongyan Long ; Jiaying Xu ; Xuanling Shi ; Zhihong Yang ; Qi Zhang ; Ziqi Zhuang ; Linqi Zhang ; Jing Xiao ; Yafei LiSource :
- EBioMedicine [ 2352-3964 ] ; 2019.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- methods : Forecasting, Population Surveillance.
- Algorithms, Humans, Models, Statistical, Pandemics.
Abstract
Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.08.024
PubMed: 31477561
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:31477561Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.</title><author><name sortKey="Su, Kun" sort="Su, Kun" uniqKey="Su K" first="Kun" last="Su">Kun Su</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China; Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Liang" sort="Xu, Liang" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Liang" last="Xu">Liang Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Guanqiao" sort="Li, Guanqiao" uniqKey="Li G" first="Guanqiao" last="Li">Guanqiao Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ruan, Xiaowen" sort="Ruan, Xiaowen" uniqKey="Ruan X" first="Xiaowen" last="Ruan">Xiaowen Ruan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xian" sort="Li, Xian" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xian" last="Li">Xian Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deng, Pan" sort="Deng, Pan" uniqKey="Deng P" first="Pan" last="Deng">Pan Deng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xinmi" sort="Li, Xinmi" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xinmi" last="Li">Xinmi Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Qin" sort="Li, Qin" uniqKey="Li Q" first="Qin" last="Li">Qin Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xianxian" sort="Chen, Xianxian" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xianxian" last="Chen">Xianxian Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiong, Yu" sort="Xiong, Yu" uniqKey="Xiong Y" first="Yu" last="Xiong">Yu Xiong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Shaofeng" sort="Lu, Shaofeng" uniqKey="Lu S" first="Shaofeng" last="Lu">Shaofeng Lu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qi, Li" sort="Qi, Li" uniqKey="Qi L" first="Li" last="Qi">Li Qi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, Chaobo" sort="Shen, Chaobo" uniqKey="Shen C" first="Chaobo" last="Shen">Chaobo Shen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tang, Wenge" sort="Tang, Wenge" uniqKey="Tang W" first="Wenge" last="Tang">Wenge Tang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rong, Rong" sort="Rong, Rong" uniqKey="Rong R" first="Rong" last="Rong">Rong Rong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Boran" sort="Hong, Boran" uniqKey="Hong B" first="Boran" last="Hong">Boran Hong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ning, Yi" sort="Ning, Yi" uniqKey="Ning Y" first="Yi" last="Ning">Yi Ning</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Meinian Institute of Health, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Long, Dongyan" sort="Long, Dongyan" uniqKey="Long D" first="Dongyan" last="Long">Dongyan Long</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Jiaying" sort="Xu, Jiaying" uniqKey="Xu J" first="Jiaying" last="Xu">Jiaying Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shi, Xuanling" sort="Shi, Xuanling" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xuanling" last="Shi">Xuanling Shi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Zhihong" sort="Yang, Zhihong" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Zhihong" last="Yang">Zhihong Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Qi" sort="Zhang, Qi" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qi" last="Zhang">Qi Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Ziqi" sort="Zhuang, Ziqi" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Ziqi" last="Zhuang">Ziqi Zhuang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Linqi" sort="Zhang, Linqi" uniqKey="Zhang L" first="Linqi" last="Zhang">Linqi Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: zhanglinqi@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Jing" sort="Xiao, Jing" uniqKey="Xiao J" first="Jing" last="Xiao">Jing Xiao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: xiaojing661@pingan.com.cn.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Yafei" sort="Li, Yafei" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yafei" last="Li">Yafei Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: liyafei2008@hotmail.com.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2019">2019</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:31477561</idno><idno type="pmid">31477561</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.08.024</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000099</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000099</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.</title><author><name sortKey="Su, Kun" sort="Su, Kun" uniqKey="Su K" first="Kun" last="Su">Kun Su</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China; Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Liang" sort="Xu, Liang" uniqKey="Xu L" first="Liang" last="Xu">Liang Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Guanqiao" sort="Li, Guanqiao" uniqKey="Li G" first="Guanqiao" last="Li">Guanqiao Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ruan, Xiaowen" sort="Ruan, Xiaowen" uniqKey="Ruan X" first="Xiaowen" last="Ruan">Xiaowen Ruan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xian" sort="Li, Xian" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xian" last="Li">Xian Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deng, Pan" sort="Deng, Pan" uniqKey="Deng P" first="Pan" last="Deng">Pan Deng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Xinmi" sort="Li, Xinmi" uniqKey="Li X" first="Xinmi" last="Li">Xinmi Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Qin" sort="Li, Qin" uniqKey="Li Q" first="Qin" last="Li">Qin Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xianxian" sort="Chen, Xianxian" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xianxian" last="Chen">Xianxian Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiong, Yu" sort="Xiong, Yu" uniqKey="Xiong Y" first="Yu" last="Xiong">Yu Xiong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Shaofeng" sort="Lu, Shaofeng" uniqKey="Lu S" first="Shaofeng" last="Lu">Shaofeng Lu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qi, Li" sort="Qi, Li" uniqKey="Qi L" first="Li" last="Qi">Li Qi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, Chaobo" sort="Shen, Chaobo" uniqKey="Shen C" first="Chaobo" last="Shen">Chaobo Shen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tang, Wenge" sort="Tang, Wenge" uniqKey="Tang W" first="Wenge" last="Tang">Wenge Tang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rong, Rong" sort="Rong, Rong" uniqKey="Rong R" first="Rong" last="Rong">Rong Rong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Boran" sort="Hong, Boran" uniqKey="Hong B" first="Boran" last="Hong">Boran Hong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ning, Yi" sort="Ning, Yi" uniqKey="Ning Y" first="Yi" last="Ning">Yi Ning</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Meinian Institute of Health, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Long, Dongyan" sort="Long, Dongyan" uniqKey="Long D" first="Dongyan" last="Long">Dongyan Long</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Jiaying" sort="Xu, Jiaying" uniqKey="Xu J" first="Jiaying" last="Xu">Jiaying Xu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shi, Xuanling" sort="Shi, Xuanling" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xuanling" last="Shi">Xuanling Shi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Zhihong" sort="Yang, Zhihong" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Zhihong" last="Yang">Zhihong Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Qi" sort="Zhang, Qi" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qi" last="Zhang">Qi Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Ziqi" sort="Zhuang, Ziqi" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Ziqi" last="Zhuang">Ziqi Zhuang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Linqi" sort="Zhang, Linqi" uniqKey="Zhang L" first="Linqi" last="Zhang">Linqi Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: zhanglinqi@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Jing" sort="Xiao, Jing" uniqKey="Xiao J" first="Jing" last="Xiao">Jing Xiao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: xiaojing661@pingan.com.cn.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Yafei" sort="Li, Yafei" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yafei" last="Li">Yafei Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: liyafei2008@hotmail.com.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">EBioMedicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2352-3964</idno><imprint><date when="2019" type="published">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Algorithms</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Forecasting (methods)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Population Surveillance (methods)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Forecasting</term><term>Population Surveillance</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Algorithms</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Pandemics</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">31477561</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>04</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>04</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2352-3964</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>47</Volume><PubDate><Year>2019</Year><Month>Sep</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>EBioMedicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>EBioMedicine</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>284-292</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S2352-3964(19)30546-8</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.08.024</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Multi-source electronic data, including historical percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%), weather data, Baidu search index and Sina Weibo data of Chongqing, China, were collected and integrated into an innovative Self-adaptive AI Model (SAAIM), which was constructed by integrating Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and XGBoost model using a self-adaptive weight adjustment mechanism. SAAIM was applied to ILI% forecast in Chongqing from 2017 to 2018, of which the performance was compared with three previously available models on forecasting.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FINDINGS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">ILI% showed an irregular seasonal trend from 2012 to 2018 in Chongqing. Compared with three reference models, SAAIM achieved the best performance on forecasting ILI% of Chongqing with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11·9%, 7·5%, and 11·9% during the periods of the year 2014-2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively. Among the three categories of source data, historical influenza activity contributed the most to the forecast accuracy by decreasing the MAPE by 19·6%, 43·1%, and 11·1%, followed by weather information (MAPE reduced by 3·3%, 17·1%, and 2·2%), and Internet-related public sentiment data (MAPE reduced by 1·1%, 0·9%, and 1·3%).</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Accurate influenza forecast in areas with irregular seasonal influenza trends can be made by SAAIM with multi-source electronic data.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Su</LastName><ForeName>Kun</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China; Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName><ForeName>Liang</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Guanqiao</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ruan</LastName><ForeName>Xiaowen</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Xian</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Deng</LastName><ForeName>Pan</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Xinmi</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Qin</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Xianxian</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xiong</LastName><ForeName>Yu</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lu</LastName><ForeName>Shaofeng</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Qi</LastName><ForeName>Li</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shen</LastName><ForeName>Chaobo</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tang</LastName><ForeName>Wenge</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rong</LastName><ForeName>Rong</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hong</LastName><ForeName>Boran</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ning</LastName><ForeName>Yi</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Meinian Institute of Health, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Long</LastName><ForeName>Dongyan</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName><ForeName>Jiaying</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shi</LastName><ForeName>Xuanling</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Zhihong</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Qi</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhuang</LastName><ForeName>Ziqi</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Linqi</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: zhanglinqi@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xiao</LastName><ForeName>Jing</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: xiaojing661@pingan.com.cn.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Yafei</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: liyafei2008@hotmail.com.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2019</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>30</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Netherlands</Country><MedlineTA>EBioMedicine</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101647039</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2352-3964</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000465" MajorTopicYN="N">Algorithms</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="Y">Forecasting</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000379" 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