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Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.

Identifieur interne : 000148 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000147; suivant : 000149

Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.

Auteurs : Kun Su [République populaire de Chine] ; Liang Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Guanqiao Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaowen Ruan [République populaire de Chine] ; Xian Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Pan Deng [République populaire de Chine] ; Xinmi Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Qin Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Xianxian Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Yu Xiong [République populaire de Chine] ; Shaofeng Lu [République populaire de Chine] ; Li Qi [République populaire de Chine] ; Chaobo Shen [République populaire de Chine] ; Wenge Tang [République populaire de Chine] ; Rong Rong [République populaire de Chine] ; Boran Hong [République populaire de Chine] ; Yi Ning [République populaire de Chine] ; Dongyan Long [République populaire de Chine] ; Jiaying Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xuanling Shi [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhihong Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Qi Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Ziqi Zhuang [République populaire de Chine] ; Linqi Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jing Xiao [République populaire de Chine] ; Yafei Li [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:31477561

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English descriptors

Abstract

Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.08.024
PubMed: 31477561


Affiliations:


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pubmed:31477561

Le document en format XML

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<wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea>
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<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Qi, Li" sort="Qi, Li" uniqKey="Qi L" first="Li" last="Qi">Li Qi</name>
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<wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea>
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<nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<nlm:affiliation>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion>
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<name sortKey="Rong, Rong" sort="Rong, Rong" uniqKey="Rong R" first="Rong" last="Rong">Rong Rong</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion>
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<name sortKey="Hong, Boran" sort="Hong, Boran" uniqKey="Hong B" first="Boran" last="Hong">Boran Hong</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Ning, Yi" sort="Ning, Yi" uniqKey="Ning Y" first="Yi" last="Ning">Yi Ning</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Meinian Institute of Health, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation>
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<wicri:regionArea>Meinian Institute of Health, Beijing</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement>
</placeName>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Long, Dongyan" sort="Long, Dongyan" uniqKey="Long D" first="Dongyan" last="Long">Dongyan Long</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Xu, Jiaying" sort="Xu, Jiaying" uniqKey="Xu J" first="Jiaying" last="Xu">Jiaying Xu</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Shi, Xuanling" sort="Shi, Xuanling" uniqKey="Shi X" first="Xuanling" last="Shi">Xuanling Shi</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Yang, Zhihong" sort="Yang, Zhihong" uniqKey="Yang Z" first="Zhihong" last="Yang">Zhihong Yang</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Zhang, Qi" sort="Zhang, Qi" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qi" last="Zhang">Qi Zhang</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement>
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<nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement>
<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Zhang, Linqi" sort="Zhang, Linqi" uniqKey="Zhang L" first="Linqi" last="Zhang">Linqi Zhang</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: zhanglinqi@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Comprehensive AIDS Research Center and Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing</wicri:regionArea>
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<settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Xiao, Jing" sort="Xiao, Jing" uniqKey="Xiao J" first="Jing" last="Xiao">Jing Xiao</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: xiaojing661@pingan.com.cn.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Ping An Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd, Shenzhen</wicri:regionArea>
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<region type="province">Guangdong</region>
</placeName>
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<name sortKey="Li, Yafei" sort="Li, Yafei" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yafei" last="Li">Yafei Li</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: liyafei2008@hotmail.com.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Chongqing</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
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<series>
<title level="j">EBioMedicine</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2352-3964</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2019" type="published">2019</date>
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<term>Humans</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
<term>Population Surveillance (methods)</term>
</keywords>
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<term>Algorithmes</term>
<term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Prévision ()</term>
<term>Surveillance de la population ()</term>
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<term>China</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en">
<term>Forecasting</term>
<term>Population Surveillance</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Chine</term>
<term>Grippe humaine</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en">
<term>Algorithms</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
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<term>Algorithmes</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
<term>Prévision</term>
<term>Surveillance de la population</term>
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<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.</div>
</front>
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<MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM">
<PMID Version="1">31477561</PMID>
<DateCompleted>
<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>02</Month>
<Day>04</Day>
</DateCompleted>
<DateRevised>
<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>02</Month>
<Day>04</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Print-Electronic">
<Journal>
<ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2352-3964</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet">
<Volume>47</Volume>
<PubDate>
<Year>2019</Year>
<Month>Sep</Month>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>EBioMedicine</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>EBioMedicine</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination>
<MedlinePgn>284-292</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S2352-3964(19)30546-8</ELocationID>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ebiom.2019.08.024</ELocationID>
<Abstract>
<AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Early detection of influenza activity followed by timely response is a critical component of preparedness for seasonal influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic. However, most relevant studies were conducted at the regional or national level with regular seasonal influenza trends. There are few feasible strategies to forecast influenza activity at the local level with irregular trends.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Multi-source electronic data, including historical percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%), weather data, Baidu search index and Sina Weibo data of Chongqing, China, were collected and integrated into an innovative Self-adaptive AI Model (SAAIM), which was constructed by integrating Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and XGBoost model using a self-adaptive weight adjustment mechanism. SAAIM was applied to ILI% forecast in Chongqing from 2017 to 2018, of which the performance was compared with three previously available models on forecasting.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="FINDINGS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">ILI% showed an irregular seasonal trend from 2012 to 2018 in Chongqing. Compared with three reference models, SAAIM achieved the best performance on forecasting ILI% of Chongqing with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11·9%, 7·5%, and 11·9% during the periods of the year 2014-2016, 2017, and 2018 respectively. Among the three categories of source data, historical influenza activity contributed the most to the forecast accuracy by decreasing the MAPE by 19·6%, 43·1%, and 11·1%, followed by weather information (MAPE reduced by 3·3%, 17·1%, and 2·2%), and Internet-related public sentiment data (MAPE reduced by 1·1%, 0·9%, and 1·3%).</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Accurate influenza forecast in areas with irregular seasonal influenza trends can be made by SAAIM with multi-source electronic data.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation>
</Abstract>
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<Author ValidYN="Y">
<LastName>Su</LastName>
<ForeName>Kun</ForeName>
<Initials>K</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, People's Republic of China; Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Xu</LastName>
<ForeName>Liang</ForeName>
<Initials>L</Initials>
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<LastName>Li</LastName>
<ForeName>Guanqiao</ForeName>
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<LastName>Ruan</LastName>
<ForeName>Xiaowen</ForeName>
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<LastName>Zhuang</LastName>
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</AffiliationInfo>
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