Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk
Identifieur interne : 000A75 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000A74; suivant : 000A76Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk
Auteurs : Romulus Breban [France] ; Julien Riou [France] ; Arnaud Fontanet [France]Source :
- Lancet (London, England) [ 0140-6736 ] ; 2013.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Analyse de regroupements, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Moyen Orient (épidémiologie), Mâle, Pandémies, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (mortalité), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission), Évaluation des risques.
- MESH :
- mortalité : Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- épidémiologie : Moyen Orient, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Analyse de regroupements, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Mâle, Pandémies, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Évaluation des risques.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Middle East.
- mortality : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- transmission : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Cluster Analysis, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pandemics, Risk Assessment, Young Adult.
Abstract
The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.
We retrieved data for MERS-CoV clusters from the WHO summary and subsequent reports, and published descriptions of cases, and took into account 55 of the 64 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV reported as of June 21, 2013, excluding cases notified in the previous 2 weeks. To assess the interhuman transmissibility of MERS-CoV, we used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and compared it to that of prepandemic SARS. We considered two scenarios, depending on the interpretation of the MERS-CoV cluster-size data.
With our most pessimistic scenario (scenario 2), we estimated MERS-CoV R0 to be 0·69 (95% CI 0·50–0·92); by contrast, the R0 for prepandemic SARS-CoV was 0·80 (0·54–1·13). Our optimistic scenario (scenario 1) yielded a MERS-CoV R0 of 0·60 (0·42–0·80). Because of recent implementation of effective contact tracing and isolation procedures, further MERS-CoV transmission data might no longer describe an entire cluster, but only secondary infections directly caused by the index patient. Hence, we calculated that, under scenario 2, eight or more secondary infections caused by the next index patient would translate into a 5% or higher chance that the revised MERS-CoV R0 would exceed 1—ie, that MERS-CoV might have pandemic potential.
Our analysis suggests that MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential. We recommend enhanced surveillance, active contact tracing, and vigorous searches for the MERS-CoV animal hosts and transmission routes to human beings.
Agence Nationale de la Recherche (Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases), and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme project PREDEMICS.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0
PubMed: 23831141
PubMed Central: 7159280
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wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="ISSN">0140-6736</idno><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Middle East (epidemiology)</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (mortality)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission)</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Analyse de regroupements</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Moyen Orient (épidémiologie)</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (mortalité)</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission)</term><term>Évaluation des risques</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Moyen Orient</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Analyse de regroupements</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Évaluation des risques</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Background</title><p>The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We retrieved data for MERS-CoV clusters from the WHO summary and subsequent reports, and published descriptions of cases, and took into account 55 of the 64 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV reported as of June 21, 2013, excluding cases notified in the previous 2 weeks. To assess the interhuman transmissibility of MERS-CoV, we used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) and compared it to that of prepandemic SARS. We considered two scenarios, depending on the interpretation of the MERS-CoV cluster-size data.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>With our most pessimistic scenario (scenario 2), we estimated MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> to be 0·69 (95% CI 0·50–0·92); by contrast, the R<sub>0</sub> for prepandemic SARS-CoV was 0·80 (0·54–1·13). Our optimistic scenario (scenario 1) yielded a MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> of 0·60 (0·42–0·80). Because of recent implementation of effective contact tracing and isolation procedures, further MERS-CoV transmission data might no longer describe an entire cluster, but only secondary infections directly caused by the index patient. Hence, we calculated that, under scenario 2, eight or more secondary infections caused by the next index patient would translate into a 5% or higher chance that the revised MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> would exceed 1—ie, that MERS-CoV might have pandemic potential.</p></sec><sec><title>Interpretation</title><p>Our analysis suggests that MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential. We recommend enhanced surveillance, active contact tracing, and vigorous searches for the MERS-CoV animal hosts and transmission routes to human beings.</p></sec><sec><title>Funding</title><p>Agence Nationale de la Recherche (Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases), and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme project PREDEMICS.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Peiris, Jsm" uniqKey="Peiris J">JSM Peiris</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, Y" uniqKey="Guan Y">Y Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuen, Ky" uniqKey="Yuen K">KY Yuen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zaki, Am" uniqKey="Zaki A">AM Zaki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bestebroer, Tm" uniqKey="Bestebroer T">TM 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France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">23831141</idno><idno type="pmc">7159280</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159280</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7159280</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000F09</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000F09</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000F09</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000F09</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">001218</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001218</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk</title><author><name sortKey="Breban, Romulus" sort="Breban, Romulus" uniqKey="Breban R" first="Romulus" last="Breban">Romulus Breban</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="ISSN">0140-6736</idno><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Background</title><p>The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We retrieved data for MERS-CoV clusters from the WHO summary and subsequent reports, and published descriptions of cases, and took into account 55 of the 64 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV reported as of June 21, 2013, excluding cases notified in the previous 2 weeks. To assess the interhuman transmissibility of MERS-CoV, we used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) and compared it to that of prepandemic SARS. We considered two scenarios, depending on the interpretation of the MERS-CoV cluster-size data.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>With our most pessimistic scenario (scenario 2), we estimated MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> to be 0·69 (95% CI 0·50–0·92); by contrast, the R<sub>0</sub> for prepandemic SARS-CoV was 0·80 (0·54–1·13). Our optimistic scenario (scenario 1) yielded a MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> of 0·60 (0·42–0·80). Because of recent implementation of effective contact tracing and isolation procedures, further MERS-CoV transmission data might no longer describe an entire cluster, but only secondary infections directly caused by the index patient. Hence, we calculated that, under scenario 2, eight or more secondary infections caused by the next index patient would translate into a 5% or higher chance that the revised MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> would exceed 1—ie, that MERS-CoV might have pandemic potential.</p></sec><sec><title>Interpretation</title><p>Our analysis suggests that MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential. We recommend enhanced surveillance, active contact tracing, and vigorous searches for the MERS-CoV animal hosts and transmission routes to human beings.</p></sec><sec><title>Funding</title><p>Agence Nationale de la Recherche (Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases), and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme project PREDEMICS.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Peiris, Jsm" uniqKey="Peiris J">JSM Peiris</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, Y" uniqKey="Guan Y">Y Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuen, Ky" uniqKey="Yuen K">KY Yuen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zaki, Am" uniqKey="Zaki A">AM Zaki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bestebroer, Tm" uniqKey="Bestebroer T">TM 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xml:lang="en">Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.</title><author><name sortKey="Breban, Romulus" sort="Breban, Romulus" uniqKey="Breban R" first="Romulus" last="Breban">Romulus Breban</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:23831141</idno><idno type="pmid">23831141</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">001C64</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001C64</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">001C64</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">001C64</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">001B26</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">001B26</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.</title><author><name sortKey="Breban, Romulus" sort="Breban, Romulus" uniqKey="Breban R" first="Romulus" last="Breban">Romulus Breban</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2013" type="published">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Middle East (epidemiology)</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (mortality)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission)</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Analyse de regroupements</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Moyen Orient (épidémiologie)</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (mortalité)</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission)</term><term>Évaluation des risques</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Moyen Orient</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Analyse de regroupements</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Évaluation des risques</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.</div></front></TEI></pubmed></double></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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