Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.
Identifieur interne : 001C64 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 001C63; suivant : 001C65Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.
Auteurs : Romulus Breban ; Julien Riou ; Arnaud FontanetSource :
- Lancet (London, England) [ 1474-547X ] ; 2013.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Middle East.
- mortality : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- transmission : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Cluster Analysis, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pandemics, Risk Assessment, Young Adult.
Abstract
The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0
PubMed: 23831141
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:23831141Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.</title><author><name sortKey="Breban, Romulus" sort="Breban, Romulus" uniqKey="Breban R" first="Romulus" last="Breban">Romulus Breban</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:23831141</idno><idno type="pmid">23831141</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">001C64</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">001C64</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.</title><author><name sortKey="Breban, Romulus" sort="Breban, Romulus" uniqKey="Breban R" first="Romulus" last="Breban">Romulus Breban</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2013" type="published">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Middle East (epidemiology)</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (mortality)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission)</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cluster Analysis</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk Assessment</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">23831141</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2013</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>09</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>17</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1474-547X</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>382</Volume><Issue>9893</Issue><PubDate><Year>2013</Year><Month>Aug</Month><Day>24</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Lancet (London, England)</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Lancet</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>694-9</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0140-6736(13)61492-0</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We retrieved data for MERS-CoV clusters from the WHO summary and subsequent reports, and published descriptions of cases, and took into account 55 of the 64 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV reported as of June 21, 2013, excluding cases notified in the previous 2 weeks. To assess the interhuman transmissibility of MERS-CoV, we used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and compared it to that of prepandemic SARS. We considered two scenarios, depending on the interpretation of the MERS-CoV cluster-size data.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">With our most pessimistic scenario (scenario 2), we estimated MERS-CoV R0 to be 0·69 (95% CI 0·50-0·92); by contrast, the R0 for prepandemic SARS-CoV was 0·80 (0·54-1·13). Our optimistic scenario (scenario 1) yielded a MERS-CoV R0 of 0·60 (0·42-0·80). Because of recent implementation of effective contact tracing and isolation procedures, further MERS-CoV transmission data might no longer describe an entire cluster, but only secondary infections directly caused by the index patient. Hence, we calculated that, under scenario 2, eight or more secondary infections caused by the next index patient would translate into a 5% or higher chance that the revised MERS-CoV R0 would exceed 1--ie, that MERS-CoV might have pandemic potential.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Our analysis suggests that MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential. We recommend enhanced surveillance, active contact tracing, and vigorous searches for the MERS-CoV animal hosts and transmission routes to human beings.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FUNDING" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Agence Nationale de la Recherche (Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases), and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme project PREDEMICS.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Breban</LastName><ForeName>Romulus</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Riou</LastName><ForeName>Julien</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fontanet</LastName><ForeName>Arnaud</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D003160">Comparative Study</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2013</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>05</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Lancet</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>2985213R</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0140-6736</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>AIM</CitationSubset><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="CommentIn"><RefSource>Lancet. 2013 Aug 24;382(9893):662-4</RefSource><PMID Version="1">23831143</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000369" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged, 80 and over</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016000" MajorTopicYN="N">Cluster Analysis</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008877" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Middle East</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="Y">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018570" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk Assessment</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D045169" MajorTopicYN="N">Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2013</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>9</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2013</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>9</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2013</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>10</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23831141</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0140-6736(13)61492-0</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7159280</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2013 Sep;13(9):745-51</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23782859</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Science. 2005 Sep 16;309(5742):1822-3</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16166506</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Science. 2004 Mar 12;303(5664):1666-9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">14752165</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2013 Mar 14;18(11):20427</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23517868</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2012 Nov 8;367(19):1814-20</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23075143</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2013 Jun 29;381(9885):2265-72</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23727167</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Nature. 2013 Mar 14;495(7440):251-4</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23486063</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>East Mediterr Health J. 2013;19 Suppl 1:S12-8</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23888790</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Jun;10(6):1030-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15207054</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Nature. 2003 Dec 11;426(6967):658-61</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">14668863</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2012 Sep 27;17(39):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23041021</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2013 Aug 1;369(5):407-16</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23782161</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2013 Jun 13;18(24):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23787162</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2013 Feb 21;18(8):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23449231</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Sep;10(9):1653-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15498170</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Feb 15;102(7):2430-5</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15695582</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Nat Med. 2004 Dec;10(12 Suppl):S88-97</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15577937</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>PLoS Comput Biol. 2013;9(5):e1002993</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23658504</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2013 Jun 27;368(26):2487-94</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23718156</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>mBio. 2012 Nov 20;3(6):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23170002</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2003 Oct 25;362(9393):1353-8</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">14585636</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Nat Rev Microbiol. 2009 Jun;7(6):439-50</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19430490</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/MersV1/Data/PubMed/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001C64 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 001C64 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= MersV1
|flux= PubMed
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:23831141
|texte= Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:23831141" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Corpus/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a MersV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |