Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk
Identifieur interne : 000F09 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000F08; suivant : 000F10Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk
Auteurs : Romulus Breban [France] ; Julien Riou [France] ; Arnaud Fontanet [France]Source :
- Lancet (London, England) [ 0140-6736 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.
We retrieved data for MERS-CoV clusters from the WHO summary and subsequent reports, and published descriptions of cases, and took into account 55 of the 64 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV reported as of June 21, 2013, excluding cases notified in the previous 2 weeks. To assess the interhuman transmissibility of MERS-CoV, we used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and compared it to that of prepandemic SARS. We considered two scenarios, depending on the interpretation of the MERS-CoV cluster-size data.
With our most pessimistic scenario (scenario 2), we estimated MERS-CoV R0 to be 0·69 (95% CI 0·50–0·92); by contrast, the R0 for prepandemic SARS-CoV was 0·80 (0·54–1·13). Our optimistic scenario (scenario 1) yielded a MERS-CoV R0 of 0·60 (0·42–0·80). Because of recent implementation of effective contact tracing and isolation procedures, further MERS-CoV transmission data might no longer describe an entire cluster, but only secondary infections directly caused by the index patient. Hence, we calculated that, under scenario 2, eight or more secondary infections caused by the next index patient would translate into a 5% or higher chance that the revised MERS-CoV R0 would exceed 1—ie, that MERS-CoV might have pandemic potential.
Our analysis suggests that MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential. We recommend enhanced surveillance, active contact tracing, and vigorous searches for the MERS-CoV animal hosts and transmission routes to human beings.
Agence Nationale de la Recherche (Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases), and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme project PREDEMICS.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0
PubMed: 23831141
PubMed Central: 7159280
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk</title><author><name sortKey="Breban, Romulus" sort="Breban, Romulus" uniqKey="Breban R" first="Romulus" last="Breban">Romulus Breban</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">23831141</idno><idno type="pmc">7159280</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159280</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7159280</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000F09</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000F09</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000F09</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000F09</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk</title><author><name sortKey="Breban, Romulus" sort="Breban, Romulus" uniqKey="Breban R" first="Romulus" last="Breban">Romulus Breban</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Riou, Julien" sort="Riou, Julien" uniqKey="Riou J" first="Julien" last="Riou">Julien Riou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fontanet, Arnaud" sort="Fontanet, Arnaud" uniqKey="Fontanet A" first="Arnaud" last="Fontanet">Arnaud Fontanet</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="ISSN">0140-6736</idno><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Background</title><p>The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We retrieved data for MERS-CoV clusters from the WHO summary and subsequent reports, and published descriptions of cases, and took into account 55 of the 64 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV reported as of June 21, 2013, excluding cases notified in the previous 2 weeks. To assess the interhuman transmissibility of MERS-CoV, we used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) and compared it to that of prepandemic SARS. We considered two scenarios, depending on the interpretation of the MERS-CoV cluster-size data.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>With our most pessimistic scenario (scenario 2), we estimated MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> to be 0·69 (95% CI 0·50–0·92); by contrast, the R<sub>0</sub> for prepandemic SARS-CoV was 0·80 (0·54–1·13). Our optimistic scenario (scenario 1) yielded a MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> of 0·60 (0·42–0·80). Because of recent implementation of effective contact tracing and isolation procedures, further MERS-CoV transmission data might no longer describe an entire cluster, but only secondary infections directly caused by the index patient. Hence, we calculated that, under scenario 2, eight or more secondary infections caused by the next index patient would translate into a 5% or higher chance that the revised MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> would exceed 1—ie, that MERS-CoV might have pandemic potential.</p></sec><sec><title>Interpretation</title><p>Our analysis suggests that MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential. We recommend enhanced surveillance, active contact tracing, and vigorous searches for the MERS-CoV animal hosts and transmission routes to human beings.</p></sec><sec><title>Funding</title><p>Agence Nationale de la Recherche (Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases), and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme project PREDEMICS.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Peiris, Jsm" uniqKey="Peiris J">JSM Peiris</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, Y" uniqKey="Guan Y">Y Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuen, Ky" uniqKey="Yuen K">KY Yuen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zaki, Am" uniqKey="Zaki A">AM Zaki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bestebroer, Tm" uniqKey="Bestebroer T">TM Bestebroer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Osterhaus, Adme" uniqKey="Osterhaus A">ADME Osterhaus</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fouchier, Ram" uniqKey="Fouchier R">RAM Fouchier</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S Van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="De Graaf, M" uniqKey="De Graaf M">M de Graaf</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lauber, C" uniqKey="Lauber C">C Lauber</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhong, Ns" uniqKey="Zhong N">NS Zhong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zheng, Bj" uniqKey="Zheng B">BJ Zheng</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Ym" uniqKey="Li Y">YM Li</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Xu, R H" uniqKey="Xu R">R-H Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, J F" uniqKey="He J">J-F He</name></author><author><name 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Sayaydeh</name></author><author><name sortKey="Alqasrawi, S" uniqKey="Alqasrawi S">S Alqasrawi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Haddadin, A" uniqKey="Haddadin A">A Haddadin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jaarour, N" uniqKey="Jaarour N">N Jaarour</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Guery, B" uniqKey="Guery B">B Guery</name></author><author><name sortKey="Poissy, J" uniqKey="Poissy J">J Poissy</name></author><author><name sortKey="El Mansouf, L" uniqKey="El Mansouf L">L el Mansouf</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Memish, Za" uniqKey="Memish Z">ZA Memish</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zumla, Ai" uniqKey="Zumla A">AI Zumla</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Hakeem, Rf" uniqKey="Al Hakeem R">RF Al-Hakeem</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Rabeeah, Aa" uniqKey="Al Rabeeah A">AA Al-Rabeeah</name></author><author><name sortKey="Stephens, Gm" uniqKey="Stephens G">GM Stephens</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Assiri, A" uniqKey="Assiri A">A Assiri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgeer, A" uniqKey="Mcgeer A">A McGeer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perl, T" uniqKey="Perl T">T Perl</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Raj, Vs" uniqKey="Raj V">VS Raj</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mou, H" uniqKey="Mou H">H Mou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Smits, Sl" uniqKey="Smits S">SL Smits</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Antia, R" uniqKey="Antia R">R Antia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Regoes, Rr" uniqKey="Regoes R">RR Regoes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Koella, Jc" uniqKey="Koella J">JC Koella</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bergstrom, Ct" uniqKey="Bergstrom C">CT Bergstrom</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Perlman, S" uniqKey="Perlman S">S Perlman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Netland, J" uniqKey="Netland J">J Netland</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Drosten, C" uniqKey="Drosten C">C Drosten</name></author><author><name sortKey="Seilmaier, M" uniqKey="Seilmaier M">M Seilmaier</name></author><author><name sortKey="Corman, Vm" uniqKey="Corman V">VM Corman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Buchholz, U" uniqKey="Buchholz U">U Buchholz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Muller, Ma" uniqKey="Muller M">MA Müller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nitsche, A" uniqKey="Nitsche A">A Nitsche</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Md" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">MD Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chung, Ph" uniqKey="Chung P">PH Chung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsang, T" uniqKey="Tsang T">T Tsang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Danielsson, N" uniqKey="Danielsson N">N Danielsson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Catchpole, M" uniqKey="Catchpole M">M Catchpole</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Lancet</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Lancet</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Lancet (London, England)</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0140-6736</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1474-547X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23831141</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7159280</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S0140-6736(13)61492-0</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au10"><name><surname>Breban</surname><given-names>Romulus</given-names></name><degrees>PhD</degrees><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au20"><name><surname>Riou</surname><given-names>Julien</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au30"><name><surname>Fontanet</surname><given-names>Arnaud</given-names></name><degrees>Prof</degrees><degrees>PhD</degrees><email>fontanet@pasteur.fr</email><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref><xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">*</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>a</label>Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, Paris, France</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>b</label>Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>*</label>Correspondence to: Prof Arnaud Fontanet, Institut Pasteur, Emerging Diseases Epidemiology Unit, 75015 Paris, France <email>fontanet@pasteur.fr</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>5</day><month>7</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub" iso-8601-date="2013-08-30"><season>24-30 August</season><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>5</day><month>7</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>382</volume><issue>9893</issue><fpage>694</fpage><lpage>699</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Elsevier Ltd</copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><related-article related-article-type="article-reference" id="d32e415" ext-link-type="doi" xlink:href="10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61504-4"></related-article><abstract id="ceab10"><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Background</title><p>The new Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection shares many clinical, epidemiological, and virological similarities with that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV. We aimed to estimate virus transmissibility and the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV, and to compare the results with similar findings obtained for prepandemic SARS.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We retrieved data for MERS-CoV clusters from the WHO summary and subsequent reports, and published descriptions of cases, and took into account 55 of the 64 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS-CoV reported as of June 21, 2013, excluding cases notified in the previous 2 weeks. To assess the interhuman transmissibility of MERS-CoV, we used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) and compared it to that of prepandemic SARS. We considered two scenarios, depending on the interpretation of the MERS-CoV cluster-size data.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>With our most pessimistic scenario (scenario 2), we estimated MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> to be 0·69 (95% CI 0·50–0·92); by contrast, the R<sub>0</sub> for prepandemic SARS-CoV was 0·80 (0·54–1·13). Our optimistic scenario (scenario 1) yielded a MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> of 0·60 (0·42–0·80). Because of recent implementation of effective contact tracing and isolation procedures, further MERS-CoV transmission data might no longer describe an entire cluster, but only secondary infections directly caused by the index patient. Hence, we calculated that, under scenario 2, eight or more secondary infections caused by the next index patient would translate into a 5% or higher chance that the revised MERS-CoV R<sub>0</sub> would exceed 1—ie, that MERS-CoV might have pandemic potential.</p></sec><sec><title>Interpretation</title><p>Our analysis suggests that MERS-CoV does not yet have pandemic potential. We recommend enhanced surveillance, active contact tracing, and vigorous searches for the MERS-CoV animal hosts and transmission routes to human beings.</p></sec><sec><title>Funding</title><p>Agence Nationale de la Recherche (Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases), and the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme project PREDEMICS.</p></sec></abstract></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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