The effects of past SARS experience and proximity on declines in numbers of travelers to the Republic of Korea during the 2015 MERS outbreak: A retrospective study
Identifieur interne : 002222 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 002221; suivant : 002223The effects of past SARS experience and proximity on declines in numbers of travelers to the Republic of Korea during the 2015 MERS outbreak: A retrospective study
Auteurs : Heesoo Joo [États-Unis] ; Ronald E. Henry [États-Unis] ; Yeon-Kyeng Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Andre D. Berro [États-Unis] ; Brian A. Maskery [États-Unis]Source :
- Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease [ 1477-8939 ] ; 2019.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Republic of Korea.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- statistics & numerical data : Travel.
- Humans, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Regression Analysis, Retrospective Studies.
Abstract
The experience of previous sizable outbreaks may affect travelers’ decisions to travel to an area with an ongoing outbreak.
We estimated changes in monthly numbers of visitors to the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2015 compared to projected values by selected areas. We tested whether areas’ experience of a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases or distance to the ROK had a significant effect on travel to the ROK during the MERS outbreak using t-tests and regression models.
The percentage changes in visitors from areas with a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases decreased more than the percentage changes in visitors from their counterparts in June (52.4% vs. 23.3%) and July (60.0% vs. 31.4%) during the 2015 MERS outbreak. The percentage changes in visitors from the close and intermediate categories decreased more than the far category. The results from regression models and sensitivity analyses demonstrated that areas with ≥100 SARS cases and closer proximity to the ROK had significantly larger percentage decreases in traveler volumes during the outbreak.
During the 2015 MERS outbreak, areas with a previous sizable SARS outbreak and areas near the ROK showed greater decreases in percentage changes in visitors to the ROK.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.05.009
PubMed: 31102656
PubMed Central: 6688921
Affiliations:
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PMC:6688921Le document en format XML
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<term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term>
<term>Regression Analysis</term>
<term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Retrospective Studies</term>
<term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology)</term>
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<term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie)</term>
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<term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term>
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<term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term>
<term>Regression Analysis</term>
<term>Retrospective Studies</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>The experience of previous sizable outbreaks may affect travelers’ decisions to travel to an area with an ongoing outbreak.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>We estimated changes in monthly numbers of visitors to the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2015 compared to projected values by selected areas. We tested whether areas’ experience of a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases or distance to the ROK had a significant effect on travel to the ROK during the MERS outbreak using t-tests and regression models.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>The percentage changes in visitors from areas with a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases decreased more than the percentage changes in visitors from their counterparts in June (52.4% vs. 23.3%) and July (60.0% vs. 31.4%) during the 2015 MERS outbreak. The percentage changes in visitors from the close and intermediate categories decreased more than the far category. The results from regression models and sensitivity analyses demonstrated that areas with ≥100 SARS cases and closer proximity to the ROK had significantly larger percentage decreases in traveler volumes during the outbreak.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>During the 2015 MERS outbreak, areas with a previous sizable SARS outbreak and areas near the ROK showed greater decreases in percentage changes in visitors to the ROK.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Korea Centers For Disease Control And Prevention" uniqKey="Korea Centers For Disease Control And Prevention">Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ryu, S" uniqKey="Ryu S">S. Ryu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kim, J J" uniqKey="Kim J">J.J. Kim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cowling, B J" uniqKey="Cowling B">B.J. Cowling</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kim, C" uniqKey="Kim C">C. Kim</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Korea Ministry For Health Welfare And Family Affairs" uniqKey="Korea Ministry For Health Welfare And Family Affairs">Korea Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Skowronski, D M" uniqKey="Skowronski D">D.M. Skowronski</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Petric, M" uniqKey="Petric M">M. Petric</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Daly, P" uniqKey="Daly P">P. Daly</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Parker, R A" uniqKey="Parker R">R.A. Parker</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bryce, E" uniqKey="Bryce E">E. Bryce</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Doyle, P W" uniqKey="Doyle P">P.W. Doyle</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Noble, M A" uniqKey="Noble M">M.A. Noble</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Roscoe, D L" uniqKey="Roscoe D">D.L. Roscoe</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tomblin, J" uniqKey="Tomblin J">J. Tomblin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, T C" uniqKey="Yang T">T.C. Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Krajden, M" uniqKey="Krajden M">M. Krajden</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Patrick, D M" uniqKey="Patrick D">D.M. Patrick</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pourbohloul, B" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B">B. Pourbohloul</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Goh, S H" uniqKey="Goh S">S.H. Goh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bowie, W R" uniqKey="Bowie W">W.R. Bowie</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Booth, T F" uniqKey="Booth T">T.F. Booth</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tweed, S A" uniqKey="Tweed S">S.A. Tweed</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Perry, T L" uniqKey="Perry T">T.L. Perry</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcgeer, A" uniqKey="Mcgeer A">A. McGeer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Brunham, R C" uniqKey="Brunham R">R.C. Brunham</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li>
</region>
</list>
<tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)"><name sortKey="Joo, Heesoo" sort="Joo, Heesoo" uniqKey="Joo H" first="Heesoo" last="Joo">Heesoo Joo</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Berro, Andre D" sort="Berro, Andre D" uniqKey="Berro A" first="Andre D." last="Berro">Andre D. Berro</name>
<name sortKey="Henry, Ronald E" sort="Henry, Ronald E" uniqKey="Henry R" first="Ronald E." last="Henry">Ronald E. Henry</name>
<name sortKey="Maskery, Brian A" sort="Maskery, Brian A" uniqKey="Maskery B" first="Brian A." last="Maskery">Brian A. Maskery</name>
</country>
<country name="Corée du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lee, Yeon Kyeng" sort="Lee, Yeon Kyeng" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yeon-Kyeng" last="Lee">Yeon-Kyeng Lee</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
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