The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea
Identifieur interne : 000F93 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000F92; suivant : 000F94The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea
Auteurs : Darae Jeong [Corée du Sud] ; Chang Hyeong Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Yongho Choi [Corée du Sud] ; Junseok Kim [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Physica a [ 0378-4371 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072
PubMed: 32288098
PubMed Central: 7126530
Affiliations:
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si7.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>ω</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:math></inline-formula> for MERS-CoV in South Korea</title><author><name sortKey="Jeong, Darae" sort="Jeong, Darae" uniqKey="Jeong D" first="Darae" last="Jeong">Darae Jeong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af000005">Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713, Republic of Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de 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uniqKey="Jeong D" first="Darae" last="Jeong">Darae Jeong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af000005">Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713, Republic of Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Chang Hyeong" sort="Lee, Chang Hyeong" uniqKey="Lee C" first="Chang Hyeong" last="Lee">Chang Hyeong Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af000010">Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan 689-798, Republic of Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan 689-798</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ulsan 689-798</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Choi, Yongho" sort="Choi, Yongho" uniqKey="Choi Y" first="Yongho" last="Choi">Yongho Choi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af000005">Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713, Republic of Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kim, Junseok" sort="Kim, Junseok" uniqKey="Kim J" first="Junseok" last="Kim">Junseok Kim</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af000005">Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713, Republic of Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Korea University, Seoul 136-713</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Physica a</title><idno type="ISSN">0378-4371</idno><idno type="eISSN">0378-4371</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" altimg="si7.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>ω</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:math></inline-formula> for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" altimg="si31.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>β</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (contact rate) and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" altimg="si32.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>γ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler’s method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" altimg="si7.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>k</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mi>ω</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:math></inline-formula>, the parameters <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" altimg="si23.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" altimg="si35.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" altimg="si36.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>w</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhang, X" uniqKey="Zhang X">X. Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ge, B" uniqKey="Ge B">B. Ge</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Q" uniqKey="Wang Q">Q. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jiang, J" uniqKey="Jiang J">J. Jiang</name></author><author><name sortKey="You, H" uniqKey="You H">H. You</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Y" uniqKey="Chen Y">Y. Chen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cowling, B J" uniqKey="Cowling B">B.J. Cowling</name></author><author><name sortKey="Park, M" uniqKey="Park M">M. Park</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fang, V J" uniqKey="Fang V">V.J. 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Viboud</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li></country><region><li>Région capitale de Séoul</li></region><settlement><li>Séoul</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Corée du Sud"><region name="Région capitale de Séoul"><name sortKey="Jeong, Darae" sort="Jeong, Darae" uniqKey="Jeong D" first="Darae" last="Jeong">Darae Jeong</name></region><name sortKey="Choi, Yongho" sort="Choi, Yongho" uniqKey="Choi Y" first="Yongho" last="Choi">Yongho Choi</name><name sortKey="Kim, Junseok" sort="Kim, Junseok" uniqKey="Kim J" first="Junseok" last="Kim">Junseok Kim</name><name sortKey="Lee, Chang Hyeong" sort="Lee, Chang Hyeong" uniqKey="Lee C" first="Chang Hyeong" last="Lee">Chang Hyeong Lee</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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