The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea.
Identifieur interne : 001103 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 001102; suivant : 001104The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea.
Auteurs : Darae Jeong [Corée du Sud] ; Chang Hyeong Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Yongho Choi [Corée du Sud] ; Junseok Kim [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Physica A [ 0378-4371 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R 0 , k , ω n for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters β (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R 0 , k , ω n , the parameters n , k , and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072
PubMed: 32288098
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:math>
for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters <mml:math><mml:mi>β</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
(contact rate) and <mml:math><mml:mi>γ</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
(removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:math>
, the parameters <mml:math><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
, <mml:math><mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
, and <mml:math><mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.</div>
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<Abstract><AbstractText>In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:math>
for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters <mml:math><mml:mi>β</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
(contact rate) and <mml:math><mml:mi>γ</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
(removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:math>
, the parameters <mml:math><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
, <mml:math><mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
, and <mml:math><mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation>
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