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The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea.

Identifieur interne : 001103 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 001102; suivant : 001104

The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea.

Auteurs : Darae Jeong [Corée du Sud] ; Chang Hyeong Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Yongho Choi [Corée du Sud] ; Junseok Kim [Corée du Sud]

Source :

Physica A [ 0378-4371 ] ; 2016.

RBID : pubmed:32288098

Abstract

In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters β (contact rate) and γ (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In R0,k,ωn , the parameters n , k , and w denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072
PubMed: 32288098

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:math>
 for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters <mml:math><mml:mi>β</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
 (contact rate) and <mml:math><mml:mi>γ</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
 (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
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</mml:math>
 , the parameters <mml:math><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
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</mml:math>
 denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.</div>
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<Abstract><AbstractText>In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
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<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
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 for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters <mml:math><mml:mi>β</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
 (contact rate) and <mml:math><mml:mi>γ</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
 (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler's method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In <mml:math><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
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<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
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 , and <mml:math><mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
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 denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.</AbstractText>
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The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea.

The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea.

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Abstract

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