The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea
Identifieur interne : 002768 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 002767; suivant : 002769The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number R0,k,ωn for MERS-CoV in South Korea
Auteurs : Darae Jeong [Corée du Sud] ; Chang Hyeong Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Yongho Choi [Corée du Sud] ; Junseok Kim [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Physica a [ 0378-4371 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.01.072
PubMed: 32288098
PubMed Central: 7126530
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for MERS-CoV in South Korea</title>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si7.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
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for MERS-CoV in South Korea</title>
<author><name sortKey="Jeong, Darae" sort="Jeong, Darae" uniqKey="Jeong D" first="Darae" last="Jeong">Darae Jeong</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Choi, Yongho" sort="Choi, Yongho" uniqKey="Choi Y" first="Yongho" last="Choi">Yongho Choi</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Kim, Junseok" sort="Kim, Junseok" uniqKey="Kim J" first="Junseok" last="Kim">Junseok Kim</name>
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<series><title level="j">Physica a</title>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" altimg="si7.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" altimg="si31.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>β</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
(contact rate) and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" altimg="si32.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>γ</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
(removed rate). We use the explicit Euler’s method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" altimg="si7.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
<mml:mo>,</mml:mo>
<mml:mi>ω</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:msubsup>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
, the parameters <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" altimg="si23.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>n</mml:mi>
</mml:math>
</inline-formula>
, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" altimg="si35.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>k</mml:mi>
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</inline-formula>
, and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" altimg="si36.gif" display="inline" overflow="scroll"><mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
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</inline-formula>
denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.</p>
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