A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
Identifieur interne : 000C66 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 000C65; suivant : 000C67A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
Auteurs : Tian-Mu Chen ; Jia Rui ; Qiu-Peng Wang ; Ze-Yu Zhao ; Jing-An Cui [République populaire de Chine] ; Ling YinSource :
- Infectious Diseases of Poverty [ 2095-5162 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Animaux, Chiroptera (virologie), Facteurs temps, Humains, Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes (médecine vétérinaire), Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes (virologie), Transmission de maladie infectieuse.
- MESH :
- médecine vétérinaire : Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes.
- virologie : Chiroptera, Réservoirs d'agents pathogènes.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Animaux, Facteurs temps, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Transmission de maladie infectieuse.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Betacoronavirus (growth & development), Chiroptera (virology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disease Reservoirs (veterinary), Disease Reservoirs (virology), Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Time Factors.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- growth & development : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- veterinary : Disease Reservoirs.
- virology : Chiroptera, Disease Reservoirs.
- Animals, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Time Factors.
Abstract
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (
The value of
Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
PubMed: 32111262
PubMed Central: 7047374
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PMC:7047374Le document en format XML
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<term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p id="Par1">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p id="Par2">In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p id="Par3">The value of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p id="Par4">Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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