A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.
Identifieur interne : 000957 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000956; suivant : 000958A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.
Auteurs : Tian-Mu Chen ; Jia Rui ; Qiu-Peng Wang ; Ze-Yu Zhao ; Jing-An Cui ; Ling YinSource :
- Infectious diseases of poverty [ 2049-9957 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Betacoronavirus (growth & development), Chiroptera (virology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disease Reservoirs (veterinary), Disease Reservoirs (virology), Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Time Factors.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- growth & development : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- veterinary : Disease Reservoirs.
- virology : Chiroptera, Disease Reservoirs.
- Animals, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Time Factors.
Abstract
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
PubMed: 32111262
Links to Exploration step
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sortKey="Wang, Qiu Peng" sort="Wang, Qiu Peng" uniqKey="Wang Q" first="Qiu-Peng" last="Wang">Qiu-Peng Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Ze Yu" sort="Zhao, Ze Yu" uniqKey="Zhao Z" first="Ze-Yu" last="Zhao">Ze-Yu Zhao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cui, Jing An" sort="Cui, Jing An" uniqKey="Cui J" first="Jing-An" last="Cui">Jing-An Cui</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yin, Ling" sort="Yin, Ling" uniqKey="Yin L" first="Ling" last="Yin">Ling Yin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32111262</idno><idno type="pmid">32111262</idno><idno type="doi">10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000957</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000957</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.</title><author><name sortKey="Chen, Tian Mu" sort="Chen, Tian Mu" uniqKey="Chen T" first="Tian-Mu" last="Chen">Tian-Mu Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China. 13698665@qq.com.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rui, Jia" sort="Rui, Jia" uniqKey="Rui J" first="Jia" last="Rui">Jia Rui</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Qiu Peng" sort="Wang, Qiu Peng" uniqKey="Wang Q" first="Qiu-Peng" last="Wang">Qiu-Peng Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Ze Yu" sort="Zhao, Ze Yu" uniqKey="Zhao Z" first="Ze-Yu" last="Zhao">Ze-Yu Zhao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cui, Jing An" sort="Cui, Jing An" uniqKey="Cui J" first="Jing-An" last="Cui">Jing-An Cui</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yin, Ling" sort="Yin, Ling" uniqKey="Yin L" first="Ling" last="Yin">Ling Yin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Infectious diseases of poverty</title><idno type="eISSN">2049-9957</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Betacoronavirus (growth & development)</term><term>Chiroptera (virology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Reservoirs (veterinary)</term><term>Disease Reservoirs (virology)</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="growth & development" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="veterinary" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Reservoirs</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Chiroptera</term><term>Disease Reservoirs</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32111262</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>25</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2049-9957</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month><Day>28</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Infectious diseases of poverty</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Infect Dis Poverty</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>24</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The value of R<sub>0</sub> was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Tian-Mu</ForeName><Initials>TM</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0710-5086</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China. 13698665@qq.com.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rui</LastName><ForeName>Jia</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Qiu-Peng</ForeName><Initials>QP</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhao</LastName><ForeName>Ze-Yu</ForeName><Initials>ZY</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cui</LastName><ForeName>Jing-An</ForeName><Initials>JA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yin</LastName><ForeName>Ling</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>3502Z2020YJ03</GrantID><Agency>Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>28</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Infect Dis Poverty</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101606645</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2049-9957</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000818" MajorTopicYN="N">Animals</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000254" MajorTopicYN="Y">growth & development</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002685" MajorTopicYN="N">Chiroptera</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="Y">virology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004197" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Reservoirs</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000662" MajorTopicYN="N">veterinary</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="N">virology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018562" MajorTopicYN="Y">Disease Transmission, Infectious</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013997" MajorTopicYN="N">Time Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Basic reproduction number</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Next generation matrix</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Novel coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Transmissibility</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>28</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>19</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32111262</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3</ArticleId><ArticleId 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