A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.
Identifieur interne : 000957 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000956; suivant : 000958A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.
Auteurs : Tian-Mu Chen ; Jia Rui ; Qiu-Peng Wang ; Ze-Yu Zhao ; Jing-An Cui ; Ling YinSource :
- Infectious diseases of poverty [ 2049-9957 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Betacoronavirus (growth & development), Chiroptera (virology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disease Reservoirs (veterinary), Disease Reservoirs (virology), Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Time Factors.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- growth & development : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- veterinary : Disease Reservoirs.
- virology : Chiroptera, Disease Reservoirs.
- Animals, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Time Factors.
Abstract
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
PubMed: 32111262
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32111262Le document en format XML
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<author><name sortKey="Yin, Ling" sort="Yin, Ling" uniqKey="Yin L" first="Ling" last="Yin">Ling Yin</name>
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<series><title level="j">Infectious diseases of poverty</title>
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<term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term>
<term>Disease Reservoirs (veterinary)</term>
<term>Disease Reservoirs (virology)</term>
<term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term>
<term>Humans</term>
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<term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term>
<term>Time Factors</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</div>
</front>
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<pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32111262</PMID>
<DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>03</Month>
<Day>18</Day>
</DateCompleted>
<DateRevised><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>03</Month>
<Day>25</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2049-9957</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>9</Volume>
<Issue>1</Issue>
<PubDate><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>Feb</Month>
<Day>28</Day>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>Infectious diseases of poverty</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Infect Dis Poverty</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>24</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3</ELocationID>
<Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>
) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The value of R<sub>0</sub>
was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName>
<ForeName>Tian-Mu</ForeName>
<Initials>TM</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0710-5086</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang'an Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China. 13698665@qq.com.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rui</LastName>
<ForeName>Jia</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
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</AffiliationInfo>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName>
<ForeName>Qiu-Peng</ForeName>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhao</LastName>
<ForeName>Ze-Yu</ForeName>
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</AffiliationInfo>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cui</LastName>
<ForeName>Jing-An</ForeName>
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<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yin</LastName>
<ForeName>Ling</ForeName>
<Initials>L</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<Language>eng</Language>
<GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>3502Z2020YJ03</GrantID>
<Agency>Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program</Agency>
<Country></Country>
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<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Next generation matrix</Keyword>
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