A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
Identifieur interne : 000213 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000212; suivant : 000214A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus
Auteurs : Tian-Mu Chen ; Jia Rui ; Qiu-Peng Wang ; Ze-Yu Zhao ; Jing-An Cui [République populaire de Chine] ; Ling YinSource :
- Infectious Diseases of Poverty [ 2095-5162 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (
The value of
Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3
PubMed: 32111262
PubMed Central: 7047374
Affiliations:
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus</title>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p id="Par1">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p id="Par2">In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p id="Par3">The value of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p id="Par4">Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Infect Dis Poverty</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Infect Dis Poverty</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Infectious Diseases of Poverty</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">2095-5162</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">2049-9957</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>BioMed Central</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32111262</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7047374</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">640</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0710-5086</contrib-id>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Tian-Mu</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>13698665@qq.com</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rui</surname>
<given-names>Jia</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>ruijia5345@qq.com</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Qiu-Peng</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>qpwang9610@163.com</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhao</surname>
<given-names>Ze-Yu</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>381597586@qq.com</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cui</surname>
<given-names>Jing-An</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>cuijingan@bucea.edu.cn</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yin</surname>
<given-names>Ling</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>yinling@siat.ac.cn</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="Aff1"><label>1</label>
<institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.12955.3a</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2264 7233</institution-id>
<institution>State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health,</institution>
<institution>Xiamen University,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, Xiamen, Fujian Province People’s Republic of China</aff>
<aff id="Aff2"><label>2</label>
<institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.411629.9</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0000 8646 3057</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Mathematics, School of Science,</institution>
<institution>Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Beijing, People’s Republic of China</aff>
<aff id="Aff3"><label>3</label>
<institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.458489.c</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 0483 7922</institution-id>
<institution>Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Shenzhen, Guangdong Province People’s Republic of China</aff>
</contrib-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>28</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<elocation-id>24</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>28</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>18</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>© The Author(s) 2020</copyright-statement>
<license license-type="OpenAccess"><license-p><bold>Open Access</bold>
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link>
. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/</ext-link>
) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract id="Abs1"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p id="Par1">As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p id="Par2">In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p id="Par3">The value of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p id="Par4">Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group xml:lang="en"><title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Novel coronavirus</kwd>
<kwd>Mathematical model</kwd>
<kwd>Basic reproduction number</kwd>
<kwd>Next generation matrix</kwd>
<kwd>Transmissibility</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><award-group><funding-source><institution> Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program</institution>
</funding-source>
<award-id>3502Z2020YJ03</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>issue-copyright-statement</meta-name>
<meta-value>© The Author(s) 2020</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
<affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Chen, Tian Mu" sort="Chen, Tian Mu" uniqKey="Chen T" first="Tian-Mu" last="Chen">Tian-Mu Chen</name>
<name sortKey="Rui, Jia" sort="Rui, Jia" uniqKey="Rui J" first="Jia" last="Rui">Jia Rui</name>
<name sortKey="Wang, Qiu Peng" sort="Wang, Qiu Peng" uniqKey="Wang Q" first="Qiu-Peng" last="Wang">Qiu-Peng Wang</name>
<name sortKey="Yin, Ling" sort="Yin, Ling" uniqKey="Yin L" first="Ling" last="Yin">Ling Yin</name>
<name sortKey="Zhao, Ze Yu" sort="Zhao, Ze Yu" uniqKey="Zhao Z" first="Ze-Yu" last="Zhao">Ze-Yu Zhao</name>
</noCountry>
<country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Cui, Jing An" sort="Cui, Jing An" uniqKey="Cui J" first="Jing-An" last="Cui">Jing-An Cui</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
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