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The Nature of Southeast Asian Security Challenges

Identifieur interne : 001775 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001774; suivant : 001776

The Nature of Southeast Asian Security Challenges

Auteurs : Jürgen Rüland

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:82DE8EE0D3F1253539CA139EC67174E1C841B86C

Abstract

The article argues that there has been a convergence of security challenges in Southeast Asia and the OECD world since the end of the Cold War, but this has not been matched by a convergence of security cultures. Interstate wars and military conflicts, absent in the OECD world since the end of World War II, have also subsided in Southeast Asia, while non-conventional security threats - such as international terrorism, organized crime, irregular migration, environmental degradation and pandemics - have increased in both worlds. However, despite incipient institution-building, Southeast Asian security policies still differ markedly from those of the OECD world. Power and state-centric approaches and a strong reliance on national sovereignty impair collective action.

Url:
DOI: 10.1177/0967010605060453

Links to Exploration step

ISTEX:82DE8EE0D3F1253539CA139EC67174E1C841B86C

Le document en format XML

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<meta-value> The Nature of Southeast Asian Security Challenges JÜRGEN RÜLAND* University of Freiburg, Germany The article argues that there has been a convergence of security challenges in Southeast Asia and the OECD world since the end of the Cold War, but this has not been matched by a convergence of security cultures. Interstate wars and military conflicts, absent in the OECD world since the end of World War II, have also subsided in Southeast Asia, while non-conventional security threats ­ such as international terrorism, organized crime, irregular migration, envi- ronmental degradation and pandemics ­ have increased in both worlds. However, despite incipient institution-building, Southeast Asian security policies still differ markedly from those of the OECD world. Power and state-centric approaches and a strong reliance on national sovereignty impair collective action. Keywords Security · Southeast Asia · conventional and non-conventional security threats · international terrorism · regime-building Introduction T HE MAIN ARGUMENT of this article is that, since the end of the Cold War, there has been a convergence of security challenges in Southeast Asia and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop- ment (OECD) world, although differences in scope and approaches to tackling the challenges remain. This means that in Southeast Asia ­ as in the OECD world ­ interstate wars and other conventional security threats, such as territorial disputes and arms races, have subsided, while the region is increasingly confronted with non-conventional security risks emanating from international terrorism and organized crime, separatism and piracy, irregular migration, poverty, environmental issues, energy shortages, economic crises, pandemics such as HIV/AIDS and SARS, and natural disasters such as the devastating tsunami that hit the coastal areas of Sumatra, Malaysia, Thailand and Burma/Myanmar on 26 December 2004. Some of these new security © 2005 PRIO, www.prio.no SAGE Publications, http://sdi.sagepub.com Vol. 36(4): 545­563, DOI: 10.1177/0967010605060453 issues are closely intertwined and hence both aggravate the risks and impede solutions. The increasing similarities of security challenges may be explained mainly by the ambiguities of globalization. Like their counterparts in the OECD world, even if for different reasons, Southeast Asian governments unequivocally prioritize economic development, as do adjacent regional great powers, such as China, India and Japan. They pursue policies promot- ing economic growth that, they believe, will attract investors and capital, stimulate technological progress, save or create jobs, strengthen their political legitimacy, and in the end possibly also provide resources for enhancing mili- tary power. These objectives can be best pursued in a peaceful international environment, one free from armed conflict and a modicum of tensions. The flipside of Southeast Asia's growing integration into the world economy is an increasing interdependence that gives rise to many of the border-crossing pathologies of globalization mentioned above. These pathologies call for new cooperative security approaches to which, however, Southeast Asian governments subscribe only hesitantly. To argue that there is a convergence of 'security culture' may thus be premature.1 Conventional Security Threats It is one of the great achievements of the OECD world that, after World War II, conflicts among its members were no longer settled by force. Military threats were looming only from outside the region and were largely a result of the superpower rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. With the end of the Cold War, the OECD world was also freed from the ten- sions and risks arising from that confrontation. Nuclear and conventional disarmament ­ such as the Strategic Arms Reductions Talks (START), the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty ­ greatly contributed to a decline of OECD defence budgets from 2.34% of GDP in 1990 to 1.79% of GDP between 1990 and 2004, along with a reduction of troop strength from 6.3 million to 4.6 million in the same period.2 In Southeast Asia, long before the end of the Cold War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) developed a set of shared norms empha- sizing peaceful conflict resolution that became known as the ASEAN Way. With the enlargement of ASEAN in the 1990s, when the former Soviet allies in Indochina became members, the likelihood of interstate wars within Southeast Asia has greatly diminished. Invasions such as that of Cambodia by Vietnam in 1979 are now increasingly remote. The same may be said 546 Security Dialogue vol. 36, no. 4, December 2005 1 For such a position, see Dosch (2003). 2 Calculated from the SIPRI Database; available at http://first.sipri.org (accessed 30 August 2005). about border wars, like those between Thailand and Laos in 1984 and 1987. Yet, unlike in the OECD world, occasional border skirmishes persist. A flash- point in this respect is the Thai­Burmese border, where incursions of Burmese troops on Thai territory, usually in hot pursuit of ethnic rebels, have repeatedly provoked armed clashes. The worst of these incidents occurred in February 2001, which saw a series of events that included heavy exchanges of artillery fire and left scores of Burmese troops dead (Haacke, 2003a: 210). Fiery nationalistic demagoguery reviving or keeping alive primordial stereo- types has occasionally also caused tensions ­ for example, at the height of the Asian financial crisis, between Indonesia and Malaysia, on the one hand, and Singapore, on the other ­ or has even led to riots, as in Phnom Penh, where in early 2003 a mob attacked and ransacked Thai property. In the end, how- ever, in all these instances reason and peaceful mechanisms of dispute settlement prevailed. With a view to Southeast Asia's wider security environment, the con- frontation fed first by the bipolar and later the tripolar great-power rivalry between the United States, the Soviet Union and China also receded. The Soviet Union ­ and, after its collapse in 1991, Russia ­ ended its military presence in Indochina and stopped supporting the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia. At the same time, Hanoi sought to improve its relations with China, with whom it was locked in violent border incidents throughout the 1980s and with whose navy it clashed in the Spratlys in 1988. However, unlike in Europe, the ideological underpinnings of interstate conflict did not entirely disappear, as China, Vietnam and Laos still adhere to a nominally socialist political order. While, as we know from regime theory, ideological conflict is the type most resistant to mediation and resolution, the pragmatic economic-liberalization policies pursued by these countries have relegated ideological issues to a backseat. Yet, unlike in the OECD world since the 1975 Helsinki Accord of the Conference of Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), territorial dis- putes and conflicting claims in maritime areas still linger in Southeast Asia. Most of them have not been resolved, but rather bracketed. The still most contested issue is the demarcation of maritime borders in the Spratly archi- pelago of the South China Sea, where at least six littoral states ­ China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei ­ have claims.3 The South China Sea is believed to be rich in natural gas and oil, although there are conflicting estimates of the size of the deposits (Calder, 1996). As early as 1992, ASEAN's Manila Declaration sought to oblige all claimants to abstain from provocative actions (Tønnesson, 2002: 591). However, ASEAN's policy of restraint initially fell on deaf ears in China. In February 1992, China had passed a law on the territorial sea and the contiguous zone on which it based Jürgen Rüland Southeast Asian Security Challenges 547 3 On the claims in the South China, see Valencia (1996); Tønnesson (2002); Umbach (2002). its 'U-shaped claim' covering almost the entire South China Sea. In 1995, China occupied Mischief Reef, which was claimed by the Philippines as part of their Kalayaan islands, and in 1998 it reinforced the structures that had been established there in 1995. While Beijing proposed joint develop- ment of the resources, it refused to enter into multilateral negotiations, insisting on bilateral talks that would have given it an edge over its neigh- bours. However, the increased US military presence in the region after 11 September 2001 and the USA's obvious commitment to backing its allies ­ as displayed in the Taiwan crisis of 1996 ­ have convinced the Chinese that an accommodation with ASEAN is a less costly option than unilateral pursuit of claims (Buszynski, 2003: 353). Thus, in 2002, Beijing signed a declaration on conduct in the South China Sea (Lee Lai To, 2003: 28; Limaye, 2004: 88). Although the declaration falls short of ASEAN's expectations because it is not a formal code of conduct, it denounces the use of force. It is the first multilateral declaration on the South China Sea signed by China, giving some credence to the latter's 'New Security Concept' (Buszynski, 2003: 354) that marked at least a rhetorical shift toward notions of shared security. In October 2003, China was the first non-ASEAN state to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), thus explicitly recognizing ASEAN norms of peaceful conflict resolution. Yet, despite a growing proclivity of littorals to refer disputes over maritime zones to international institutions for settle- ment, such conflicts may still erupt into gunboat policy, as the recent naval standoff between Malaysian and Indonesian forces near Ambalat in the Sulawesi Sea demonstrates. Remaining Asian hot spots that may trigger interstate wars ­ such as Taiwan, the Korean peninsula and Kashmir ­ are located outside the region. Even if they explode into armed conflicts, their effects on Southeast Asia will most likely be of a more indirect nature. They may cause an increase in the presence of external powers and lead to a militarization of the region, but it is unlikely that they will draw it into hostilities. Countries closely aligned with the USA, such as Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand, have con- sciously sought to improve their ties to Beijing in an attempt to dispel Chinese suspicions that they are part of a US strategy of containing China. This means that, even if pressured to take sides in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, they will do their utmost to evade such a decision and comply with their commitments towards the USA to the least possible extent.4 The Anti-Secession Law passed by the People's Congress in March 2005, which explicitly included the use of force to prevent Taiwanese inde- pendence, must also be seen in this context. While the law is primarily designed to contain moves by the Taiwanese government towards inde- pendence of the island republic, it also seeks to discourage Southeast Asian neighbours and the USA from supporting such a policy. 548 Security Dialogue vol. 36, no. 4, December 2005 4 A point made at a Euro-ASEAN security workshop held in Berlin on 12­13 December 2004. Apart from the declining likelihood of interstate wars in the region, the con- vergence argument is also supported by the fact that, like much of the OECD world (except for Japan and South Korea), Southeast Asia is mainly threat- ened by nuclear proliferation outside the region. In the region, the danger of state-sponsored horizontal proliferation is marginal. While ASEAN has con- vincingly shown its intention to comply with the non-proliferation norm by establishing a Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ) in 1995, risks persist due to the fact that adjacent nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan have so far not acceded to the convention or, like North Korea, have abrogated their commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. All ten Southeast Asian countries have also signed the Convention on the Pro- hibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxic Weapons and their Destruction ­ nine as parties, Burma/Myanmar as a signatory ­ and have also signed the Convention on Chemical Weapons.5 Less evident is the convergence argument in the area of conventional armaments. While, after the end of the Cold War, the OECD world experi- enced a process of arms reduction and declining defence budgets, Southeast Asia was widely perceived as engaging in a veritable spree of weapons buy- ing. Some of the weapons no longer used in the West found their way to the region, as the German federal government's sale of the German Democratic Republic's navy to Indonesia in 1994 shows. This led some observers to warn of an unfolding arms race, motivated partly by substantial increases in Chinese and Indian defence spending and partly by the scramble for resource-rich maritime zones. Others were less alarmist and spoke of a process of arms modernization and an adjustment of defence capabilities to the increased economic potentials. Yet, although the increases in defence spending were also driven by domestic factors, such as rent-seeking activi- ties in the military, the growing military expenditures were substantial in absolute terms; and, as arms modernization pursued the objective of power projection, the concern of observers could not entirely be dismissed. For the outside observer, it was particularly disturbing that, in most countries, mili- tary modernization was widely accepted by the public as a symbol of nation- al strength and prestige. Unlike within most OECD countries, there was, with the exception of some members of the local and transnational NGO community, no pacifist movement pushing for disarmament. However, the Asian financial crisis marked a watershed in the military buildup, as most Southeast Asian countries shelved expensive arms-acquisi- tion programmes, bringing the region back in line with trends in most of the OECD world. Defence expenses are again on the rise following the events of 11 September 2001, but only Singapore exceeds the levels reached in the mid- Jürgen Rüland Southeast Asian Security Challenges 549 5 See http://disarmament.un.org:8080/wmd/bwc/fifth/documents.htm and http://disarmament.un.org: 8080/wmd/bwc/pdf/vinS4.pdf (accessed 20 February 2005). 1990s in absolute as well as in relative terms. In favour of the convergence argument is the fact that, from the mid-1990s onward, the situation was not uniform in the OECD world either. The military technology revolution pushed by the US government markedly drove up US defence expenditures. Under the Bush administration and following 9/11, the defence expendi- tures of the USA have increased by leaps and bounds ­ from $323 billion in 2001 to $455 billion in 2004 ­ and have reached unprecedented levels, in contrast to developments within Japan and the EU.6 Unlike the OECD, Southeast Asia witnessed an increasing penetration of external forces. While the OECD world is characterized by US dominance, it is important to note that this dominance is nonetheless exercised by an OECD member. In Southeast Asia, ever since the inauguration of its concept of a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) in 1971, ASEAN has sought to reduce external influences and to avoid becoming a theatre for great-power rivalries (Hänggi, 1992). While ASEAN indeed successfully emancipated itself from the influence of external powers in the 1990s ­ sym- bolized by the closure or downsizing of US and Russian bases in the region ­ and was on the way to becoming a 'manager of regional affairs' (Haacke, 2003a: 8), the more recent past has seen a reversal of this trend. It would, however, be wrong to attribute this change entirely to the repercussions of 9/11. External influences on the region already began to increase with the Asian financial crisis, which painfully exposed the weakness of regional institutions and left crisis management to the international financial organi- zations dominated by the West ­ in particular, the USA. The crisis virtually paralyzed ASEAN and engulfed the grouping in acrimonious disputes over its principles of cooperation. ASEAN was thus unable to act in the East Timor crisis and grudgingly had to leave the latter's resolution to a UN inter- vention led by Australia, the self-styled deputy sheriff of the USA. Even prior to 9/11, the USA negotiated visiting rights and logistic support for its navy with Singapore and concluded a Visiting Forces Agreement with the Philippines in 1998. The events of 11 September 2001 undoubtedly intensified external interest in the region. The USA designated the region a 'second front' and elevated its security priority to a level unprecedented for the post-Cold War period (Wagener, 2002). Southeast Asia's renewed security priority for the USA became most visible in joint military exercises and the stationing of US troops in the Philippines; the conclusion of a Mutual Logistics Support Agreement with Manila in November 2002 (Haacke, 2003b: 118); the stepping-up of military exercises with Thailand; talks with Vietnam about the use of the former Soviet base of Cam Ranh Bay (Buszynski, 2003: 353); closer intelligence cooperation with ASEAN governments; the increased 550 Security Dialogue vol. 36, no. 4, December 2005 6 SIPRI Database; available at http://first.sipri.org (accessed 30 August 2005). presence of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the region; and the deployment of additional aircraft carriers from the Atlantic to the Western Pacific (Cruz de Castro, 2004). For their part, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines provided logistical support for US military operations in Afghanistan and sent troops to Iraq in 2003. On Washington's request, several ASEAN countries also signed the Container Security Initiative (CSI), empowering US customs officials to inspect US-bound cargo containers at their port of shipping (Haacke, 2003b: 117). In October 2002, US President George W. Bush launched the Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative (EAI), with the offer of bilateral Free Trade Agreements between the USA and ASEAN member-countries. Thailand and the Philippines were declared 'non-NATO US allies', giving them increased access to US military hardware and intelli- gence (Limaye, 2004: 85; Morrison, 2004: 156). After the Bali bombing in October 2002, in which 88 Australians were killed, Australia declared that it might also resort to pre-emptive strikes to stem terrorist attacks on its terri- tory, a policy statement that, though not naming concrete targets, could only be directed against neighbouring Southeast Asian countries. The increased US presence in the region triggered balancing moves by Asian great powers and ASEAN itself. However, in the light of US dominance, these moves steered clear of power balancing and concentrated mainly on institu- tional or 'soft' balancing. They are directed not only against the USA, but also against each other. Chinese efforts to conclude a Free Trade Agreement with ASEAN, though originating prior to 11 September 2001, must be seen in this light, along with Japanese and Indian overtures to establish comprehensive economic partnerships with ASEAN (Stubbs, 2004: 9). India also sought to foster institutional networking with Southeast Asia by helping to revitalize the Bangladesh India Myanmar Sri Lanka Thailand Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), and it temporarily participated in naval patrols with the USA in the Strait of Malacca (Wain, 2004a; Young & Valencia, 2003: 277). ASEAN was highly receptive to most of these moves, as they were seen as chances to engage the region's great powers and to balance US dominance. This also refutes Kang's (2003, 2003/04) claims that Asian countries are bandwagoning China, and comes much closer to the position set out by Acharya (2003/04: 153), who has described ASEAN's attitude toward China as 'double-binding'. Non-Conventional Security Risks As in the OECD world, non-conventional security threats have increasingly replaced interstate confrontations in Southeast Asia (Tellis, 2004: 34). Non- conventional security threats may be characterized by three features. First, they tend to be of a transnational nature; second, governments are challenged Jürgen Rüland Southeast Asian Security Challenges 551 by non-state actors; and, third, non-state actors often rely on asymmetric strategies, such as terrorism, guerrilla warfare and informal activities (Münkler, 2002: 49). The non-statist nature of many non-conventional secur- ity threats also explains why they are jeopardizing human security to a greater extent than national security. While international terrorism has become a top priority on the security agenda of OECD countries since 9/11, the same has also been the case in Southeast Asia. The terrorist threat has been dramatically highlighted by the bombings in Madrid (March 2004) and London (July 2005), as well as in Bali (October 2002), Jakarta (August 2003 and September 2004) and the Philippines (February 2003 and February 2004). Although terrorism is a new type of threat neither for Southeast Asia nor for the OECD world, the chal- lenge is its increasingly transnational organization and the fact that it is often directed against 'soft' targets and civilians, inflicts unacceptable harm, and threatens the credibility of governments to protect their populations (Tellis, 2004: 41). Its rise, spread and efficiency as a type of asymmetric warfare is facilitated by new communication technologies, the increasingly free flow of people, the use of global business networks and globalized traditional channels of remittances, such as the hawala system (Abuza, 2003: 183; Tellis, 2004: 41). After 9/11, Southeast Asia came into the focus of US anti-terrorism strate- gists. Catching their attention was the Islamic revival in the region that began in the 1980s and gained momentum in the 1990s, as well as the region's complex geography and porous borders, weak states, Islamic rebel- lions and ethnic strife. Of great concern for security planners is the spectre of a combination of nuclear proliferation risks and international terrorism. This would add a non-conventional dimension to a conventional security prob- lem that so far was rather marginal in Southeast Asia. Yet, fears are rife that fissile material may fall into the hands of terrorists, enabling them to con- struct a 'dirty bomb'. Such concerns were heightened by reports that, in June 2003, police had arrested a Thai national attempting to sell a quantity of caesium-137, a radioactive material used in nuclear plants (Crispin, 2003). In early 2004 a Malaysian firm was accused of shipping nuclear equipment to Libya (Sipress & Nakashima, 2004). While the Malaysian government vehemently denied turning a blind eye to nuclear proliferation, concerns about nuclear terrorism were spurred by the fact that Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam operate research reactors.7 Although these reactors are under the supervision of the International Atomic and Energy Agency (IAEA), only Indonesia and the Philippines are parties to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (Roston, 2002). 552 Security Dialogue vol. 36, no. 4, December 2005 7 World Nuclear Association Information and Issue Briefs, ' Asia's Nuclear Energy Growth', November 2003; available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf47.htm (accessed 4 January 2005). This raises fears that, owing to lax security controls, fissile material may be leaked out of the reactors. A more sober analysis, however, suggests that the threat perceptions circu- lating in the security communities of the USA, Singapore and Malaysia may be exaggerated. This is not to belittle real threats and the close connections Southeast Asian Islamists entertain throughout the region and with Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, a closer look reveals that, despite their transnational links, terrorist activities are mainly home-grown and draw inspiration from previous rebellions ­ such as, in Indonesia, the millenarianist Darul Islam movement of the 1950s. Although evidence of links between al-Qaeda and local terrorist groups like Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Kumpulan Mujahedin Malaysia (KMM) and Abu Sayyaf exists, the cohesion and intensity of these links is difficult to gauge. Views portraying Southeast Asia as a launching pad and haven for international terrorism (Desker, 2002: 390) seem to be as much off the mark as categorizing the Mindanao Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Abu Sayyaf as 'associate groups of al-Qaeda' (Gunaratna, 2002: xxi). Some of the evidence cited by the proponents of the 'second front' hypothesis comes from rather dubious sources. Recent assessments of the renewed Muslim unrest in the south of Thailand also doubt that al-Qaeda has a hand in it (Bünte, 2004: 451).8 Southeast Asia's label as a second front is thus an inappropriate description of the security risks in the region. While the risks caused by transnational terrorist networks are undeniable, it should also be taken into account that, despite the Islamic revivalism, Southeast Asian Islam is still highly diverse and on the whole more tolerant than Middle Eastern brands. Even the rise of Salafist and other puritanical Wahhabi versions of Islam in Indonesia and Malaysia should not automati- cally be mistaken as evidence for the diffusion of a terrorist ideology in the region (ICG, 2004c). Although in Indonesia the number of Islamic boarding schools (pesantren) has reached 14,000, of which 4,000 may have Islamist leanings, only a small minority of them entertain links to terrorist circles (ICG, 2003). So far, Islamist terrorists constitute a small, albeit dangerous, radical fringe. Recent elections in Indonesia and Malaysia have not indicated a worrying advance of Islamists, despite the gains of the Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) in Indonesia, which received a surprising 7.34% of the vote in the April 2004 parliamentary elections. Broadly speaking, however, the cleavage structure in Indonesian society has remained virtually unchanged since 1955, when the first and only free elections until 1999 were held. Moreover, after initial silence, the two large Islamic socio-religious organiza- tions, the Muhammadiyah and the Nahdlatul Ulama, have repeatedly spoken out against Islamist agitation and thwarted moves to include the Jürgen Rüland Southeast Asian Security Challenges 553 8 See also Crispin (2004a,b); Schottmann (2004). Jakarta Charter (which would subject all Indonesian Muslims to Islamic law or shariah) in the amended constitution (Desker, 2002: 388). In Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago, literal Islam is only a thin veneer cast over an adat- based syncretist culture (McKenna, 1998). The security risks caused by international terrorism in Southeast Asia have also been viewed in bleak terms because of the initial denial of the problem and inactivity by some governments in the region. Especially Indonesia, but also Thailand and the Philippines, were often blamed for their allegedly lacklustre efforts to fight international terrorism. While in some cases official denial of the problem may have been a tactical move to avoid retaliatory actions by the terrorists, in Indonesia's case the problem was real. However, since the Bali bombing, Indonesia has passed an Anti-Terrorism Law and seriously stepped up its activities against terrorists. Most of the nearly 200 JI terrorists apprehended so far have been captured in Indonesia (ICG, 2003; Smith, 2003: 467; Abuza, 2003: 169). Although far from working smoothly, various anti-terrorism pacts have intensified and improved intel- ligence-sharing among ASEAN countries and with the USA, and contributed to the capturing of key al-Qaeda and JI figures in the region (McBeth & Greenlees, 2004). Separatism as a security risk still exists, but overall ­ despite the recent out- burst of violence in southern Thailand ­ seems to be on the decline. As in the European periphery, there was an upsurge of separatism and ethno-religious violence in Southeast Asia in the 1990s. Most affected by communal strife was Indonesia, which was seen by observers to be disintegrating and even likened to a 'failing state'.9 Separatist rebellions raged in East Timor, Aceh and West Papua, violent communal conflicts in Kalimantan, the Moluccas and Central Sulawesi. These caused thousands of deaths and displaced hundreds of thousands. Most of these conflicts have now given way to a fragile peace, comparable to the situation in Northern Ireland, the Basque region, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. The Malino peace agreements ended endemic violence in Central Sulawesi and the Moluccas, although hostilities still occasionally flare up (ICG, 2004a,b). In East and Central Kalimantan, ethnic strife between Dayaks and Madurese only came to an end after the latter had left the area. East Timor became independent in 2002. The devastating tsunami destroying much of the province of Aceh and killing over 160,000 has significantly increased the chances for a durable settlement of a long-festering secessionist insurgency. In the peace accord, brokered by an NGO led by former Finnish president Martti Athisaari and signed in Helsinki on 15 August 2005, both sides made major concessions (Rusli, 2005). Separatism is likewise declining in Burma/Myanmar, but ­ despite a peace agreement concluded with one of the insurgent groups, the 554 Security Dialogue vol. 36, no. 4, December 2005 9 Among the many contributions on this issue see, for example, Wanandi (2002); Thayer (2001). Mindanao National Liberation Front (MNLF) in 1996 ­ it is continuing in the Philippine south and newly flaring up in southern Thailand. Another serious concern of anti-terrorism experts are links between terror- ism, separatism, ethnic strife, piracy and organized crime. In fact, links between separatism and terrorism do exist, as the training of JI members in camps of the MILF suggests (McBeth, 2002). They also exist in areas of ethno- religious strife, such as Central Sulawesi, but are less clear in the Moluccas and do not seem to exist in Aceh. Former Laskar Jihad leader Ja'afar Umar Thalib is said to be critical of Osama bin Laden and dissolved the organiza- tion after the Bali bombing (Smith, 2003: 458). Front Pembela Islam mobi- lized jihadis for fighting against the USA in Afghanistan and was involved in violence against Christians, but it is difficult to find evidence for ties with al-Qaeda. Even more speculative are suspected links between international terrorism, separatism and piracy. Although piracy is rapidly on the rise in Southeast Asian waters (Young & Valencia, 2003: 271), there is so far only weak evidence for links between separatist groups such as Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM), piracy and al-Qaeda. A more visible relationship exists between separatism and international crime. In Aceh, both separatist forces and the government troops fighting them are engaged in arms-smuggling, drug-trafficking, illegal logging, pro- tection rackets and money-laundering. Most Southeast Asian states are thus still on the blacklist of the OECD's Finance Action Task Force (FATF) (Abuza, 2003: 188). Here is also a link to international terrorism, as terrorist cells may make use of poorly supervised banking systems in their attempt to get access to funds for the purchase of arms and explosives. These risks also exist in the OECD world, although more effective monitoring and enforce- ment help to contain them. Fragile democratization also poses security risks. These are certainly greater in Southeast Asia than in the OECD world. One reason is that democracy is deeply embedded in most OECD societies, and even in Eastern Europe's new democracies it is less fragile than in Southeast Asia. Although democratiza- tion has made considerable headway since the Philippine people's power revolt in 1986, there are still several semi-democratic, nominally socialist and overtly authoritarian regimes in the region. Moreover, even the countries that have experienced democratic transition are often disparagingly categorized as 'defective democracies' (Merkel, 1999; Croissant, 2002). Human rights violations, the privatization of force by warlords, political repression, dis- crimination against minorities and endemic corruption are major impedi- ments to human security and socio-economic reform in these polities. As they encourage veto players, including elements in the military and the bureau- cracy, representatives of the ancien régime, separatists and religious fanatics, to oppose the new rules of the political game, they jeopardize democratic consolidation. The same holds true for overly stringent anti-terrorism laws Jürgen Rüland Southeast Asian Security Challenges 555 and counter-insurgency measures, which in the first place strengthen the security sector (McBeth, 2003; Buckman, 2003; Vatikiotis, 2004). While popular demands for a strong hand may thrive under conditions of political turbulence, terrorist threats and sluggish economic growth, the fears of many Indonesian NGOs and democracy activists that a president with a military background signifies a reversal of democratization are nevertheless exaggerated. However, the slow progress in democratization should not obscure the fact that, even in the area of human security, there is a con- vergence of the OECD world and Southeast Asia. The severe human rights violations committed by US security personnel in the infamous Abu Ghraib prison in Baghdad and in Guantánamo Bay, and by British soldiers in Southern Iraq, as well as the curtailment of civil rights in the wake of 9/11 are hardly more justifiable than the human rights violations by Southeast Asia's authoritarian regimes criticized by the USA and other Western nations. Convergent are also security problems related to international migration. In many Western countries, it is increasingly evident that the integration of migrant communities has not been a success story. Tensions and violent incidents are on the rise even in the Netherlands, which has long been regarded as a model of a multicultural society. Migratory problems have also dramatically increased in Southeast Asia. At present there are ­ conserva- tively estimated ­ about seven to eight million migrants in the region. Indonesia also has become a transit country for migrants from the Middle East en route to Australia. As much of this migration is irregular, especially from Indonesia to Malaysia, periodic expulsions of illegal migrants by Malaysia have strained mutual relations. Many of the migrants are smuggled into the country by dubious syndicates, leaving the migrant workers exposed to the whims of their employers and the authorities in the receiving countries. Other non-conventional security problems transcending borders are envi- ronmental problems such as haze, loss of biodiversity and climate change. These are caused by illegal logging and swidden agriculture and in the past mainly originated from Indonesia. They have contributed not only to a marked increase of respiratory ailments in neighbouring countries but also to enormous economic losses. Tourist arrivals have been adversely affected by the recent SARS pandemic, while HIV/AIDS infections are still on the rise in Burma/Myanmar and Indochinese countries.10 These security challenges are certainly more acute in Southeast Asia than in the OECD world, where international cooperation and more effective government responses have kept pandemics and environmental problems better in check. Economic crises, while not sparing the OECD world ­ as the crisis of the European Monetary System of 1992­93 indicates ­ are considerably more 556 Security Dialogue vol. 36, no. 4, December 2005 10 On HIV/AIDS in the Asia-Pacific region, see ICG (2002); Vatikiotis & Crispin (2004). serious in Southeast Asia. The Asian currency crisis of 1997­98 and its socio- economic consequences can probably only be compared with the Great Depression in the 1930s. While Southeast Asian countries have made steps to reform their corporate sectors and banking systems, have established a financial surveillance system and participated in the Chiang Mai Initiative (a system of bilateral swaps for countries facing liquidity problems), many of the domestic problems believed to have spurred the crisis still prevail. Despite the establishment of an ASEAN Task Force on Social Safety Nets, social security nets as manifestations of human security are still in their infancy and much weaker than in many OECD countries, where the neo- liberal logic of economic globalization has induced governments to curtail social welfare programs. All this does not bode well for the prevention of future crises, which may become a recurrent characteristic of Southeast Asian economies. Southeast Asian Responses to Security Challenges Southeast Asia's security challenges may converge with security issues in the OECD world, but the way they are handled differs. Military security in the North Atlantic is provided by NATO, which for much of its existence was a collective defence pact but in recent years is also increasingly assuming func- tions of a collective security system. NATO is paralleled by institutions of common and human security, such as the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which, however, is increasingly marginal- ized by US unilateralism. ASEAN, on the other hand, has never been a secu- rity pact, although some ASEAN member-countries still are or have been members of security alliances. Thailand and the Philippines were members of the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), which was dissolved in 1977; Malaysia and Singapore are members of the Five Powers Defence Arrangements (together with the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand); the Philippines has a bilateral defence pact with the USA; and, between 1995 and 1999, Indonesia had a security agreement with Australia. The ASEAN grouping mainly relied on national security based on the doc- trine of 'national resilience' and its regional extension, 'regional resilience'. From the 1980s onward, there was a gradual shift from national security to 'comprehensive security', and in the 1990s even toward 'cooperative security'. Creeping moves toward 'cooperative security' occurred mainly in the area of conventional military security and, more recently, to some extent in the war against terror. Yet, scepticism about the degree of regional anti- terrorism cooperation is justified (Stubbs, 2004: 4), and it is far-fetched to believe that the fight against international terrorism becomes a unifying fac- Jürgen Rüland Southeast Asian Security Challenges 557 tor for ASEAN. Nevertheless, manifestations of these (hesitant) shifts toward 'cooperative security' are the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) formed in 1994; the (limited) confidence-building measures adopted by the ARF; ASEAN Plus Three (APT); numerous Track Two forums, such as the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP) and the ASEAN Institutes for Security and International Studies (ASEAN-ISIS); the still-vague concept of an ASEAN Security Community (ASC); and various declarations against international terrorism. But, as all these mechanisms adhere largely to the so- called 'ASEAN Way' of cooperation, with its strong emphasis on national sovereignty and non-interference in the domestic affairs of fellow members (Garofano, 2002: 520; Emmers, 2003: 430), strong realist notions of security informed by the concept of (power) balancing are still predominant in the Southeast Asian security discourse. Mechanisms of cooperative security, such as the ASEAN High Council and the Troika, have never been used to settle disputes (Hund, 2002: 111). Whether the recently concluded Treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, which was signed by eight ASEAN countries, has more tangible effects remains to be seen. While, in the OECD world, security is increasingly viewed as a common good and non-conventional security challenges are tackled by regime- building, there is little progress in this direction in Southeast Asia. This holds particularly true for problems such as international migration, environmen- tal degradation and ­ to a lesser extent ­ pandemics (Cotton, 1999). Except for the emergence of epistemic communities and Track Two meetings, these issues still tend to be handled nationally. Even when ASEAN ministerial meetings do tackle them, they hardly go beyond non-binding declarations that may at best be considered 'proto-regimes' (Aggarwal, 1993), emphasiz- ing certain common principles but usually not transcending this early stage of regime-building. Separatism, too, even if it has border-crossing conse- quences, has always been seen as a threat that should be handled nationally, and preferably by military force. Although there was mediation by Indonesia and Malaysia in the Moro conflict and some Philippine and Thai involve- ment in Aceh, ASEAN countries are averse to multilateral mediation. However, the Aceh Peace Accord of 15 August 2005 is a noteworthy departure from previous nationalist policies, as Indonesia accepts sizeable monitoring teams from ASEAN and the EU. But, in general, governments ­ and, to an even greater extent, the security sector ­ usually fail to recognize the highly complex nature of these conflicts and the cognitive processes underlying them. The conflicts are usually shaped by previous interactions, socio-economic disparities, experiences of political and cultural discrimina- tion, and single traumatic incidents that are revitalized by the collective memory whenever inter-ethnic relations deteriorate. The disregard for human security in the region was in a most tragic way highlighted by the tsunami of 26 December 2004. Unlike Pacific littorals, 558 Security Dialogue vol. 36, no. 4, December 2005 Indian Ocean rim countries have so far failed to establish a tsunami early- warning system that could have notified local authorities of the impending danger and saved tens of thousands of lives. This lack of regional coopera- tion is even more deplorable since the Andaman Sea region is well known as a high-risk area and seaquakes with devastating consequences had been predicted since the late 1980s. National sovereignty is thus still the most essential value in the Southeast Asian security discourse, even though it came under pressure in the after- math of the Asian financial crisis. However, Thai and Philippine moves towards 'flexible engagement' did not find acceptance among the majority of ASEAN governments. More recently, Indonesia also saw turned down its calls for an ASEAN peacekeeping force (Wain, 2004b,c), and a regional human rights mechanism is still missing (Tay & Sukma, 2003: 122). This shows the thorny path towards human security, the type of security that is closest to the liberal pole on the realism­liberalism continuum of security concepts. However, with the disastrous flood in December 2004, the concepts of human and cooperative security may have got a boost. Encouraging for moves toward human security are also pronouncements in the Vientiane Action Programme (2004­2010), agreed upon by ASEAN at its Vientiane Summit in December 2004, which identifies peace, stability, democracy and prosperity as major values supporting the ASC. The inclusion of democracy in the ASEAN catalogue of shared norms is unprecedented, as is the con- demnation of 'unconstitutional and undemocratic changes of government' in the ASEAN Security Community Plan of Action, likewise agreed in Vientiane.11 Conclusion In sum, the above analysis suggests that while security challenges converge in the countries of the OECD and Southeast Asia, security culture does not. On the one hand, recent developments and the concomitant institutional buildup suggest that Southeast Asian governments increasingly recognize the interdependent nature of security and, as a corollary, the need for more cooperation. On the other hand, however, it is evident that realist views of security are still deeply ingrained in the collective memory of the public and the security communities by socialization and historical experience. These cognitive barriers impede the development of regional security institutions with the same degrees of 'thickness' and robustness found in the OECD Jürgen Rüland Southeast Asian Security Challenges 559 11 The Vientiane Action Programme (VAP) 2004­2010 is available at www.aseansec.org/VAP-10th% 20ASEAN%20Summit.pdf ); see also Suryodiningrat (2004). world. Even where proto-regimes have been built, they are often used as an institutional arena for enhancing national influence. Balancing moves, occa- sional brinkmanship, the flaring-up of nationalist sentiment and unresolved non-conventional security challenges will thus continue to characterize Southeast Asian security for the more immediate future. * Jürgen Rüland is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Political Science at the University of Freiburg, and Director of the Arnold-Bergstraesser Institute, Freiburg. Among his recent publications are Parliaments and Political Change in Asia (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies; co-authored with Clemens Jürgenmeyer, Michael L. Nelson & Patrick Ziegenhain), Interregionalism and International Relations (RoutledgeCurzon; co- edited with Heiner Hänggi & Ralf Roloff), and American Third World Policies After the End of the Cold War (M. E. Sharp; co-edited with Theodor Hanf & Eva Manske). The present article is a revised version of a paper presented at the Third Europe-Southeast Asia Forum, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, 13­15 December 2004. 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</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-wrap>
</article-meta>
</front>
<back>
<notes>
<p>
<list list-type="order">
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>1</sup>
For such a position, see Dosch (2003).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>2</sup>
Calculated from the SIPRI Database; available at http://first.sipri.org (accessed 30 August 2005).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>3</sup>
On the claims in the South China, see Valencia (1996); Tønnesson (2002); Umbach (2002).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>4</sup>
A point made at a Euro-ASEAN security workshop held in Berlin on 12-13 December 2004.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>5</sup>
See http://disarmament.un.org:8080/wmd/bwc/fifth/documents.htm and http://disarmament.un.org:8080/wmd/bwc/pdf/vinS4.pdf (accessed 20 February 2005).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>6</sup>
SIPRI Database; available at http://first.sipri.org (accessed 30 August 2005).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>7</sup>
World Nuclear Association Information and Issue Briefs, ‘ Asia’s Nuclear Energy Growth’, November 2003; available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf47.htm (accessed 4 January 2005).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>8</sup>
See also Crispin (2004a, b); Schottmann (2004).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>9</sup>
Among the many contributions on this issue see, for example, Wanandi (2002); Thayer (2001).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>10</sup>
On HIV/AIDS in the Asia-Pacific region, see ICG (2002); Vatikiotis & Crispin (2004).</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<sup>11</sup>
The Vientiane Action Programme (VAP) 2004-2010 is available at www.aseansec.org/VAP-10th%20ASEAN%20Summit.pdf); see also Suryodiningrat (2004).</p>
</list-item>
</list>
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<title>The Nature of Southeast Asian Security Challenges</title>
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<titleInfo type="alternative" lang="en" contentType="CDATA">
<title>The Nature of Southeast Asian Security Challenges</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Jürgen</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Rüland</namePart>
<affiliation>University of Freiburg, Germany</affiliation>
</name>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
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<publisher>Sage Publications</publisher>
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<placeTerm type="text">Sage CA: Thousand Oaks, CA</placeTerm>
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<dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2005-12</dateIssued>
<copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2005</copyrightDate>
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<abstract lang="en">The article argues that there has been a convergence of security challenges in Southeast Asia and the OECD world since the end of the Cold War, but this has not been matched by a convergence of security cultures. Interstate wars and military conflicts, absent in the OECD world since the end of World War II, have also subsided in Southeast Asia, while non-conventional security threats - such as international terrorism, organized crime, irregular migration, environmental degradation and pandemics - have increased in both worlds. However, despite incipient institution-building, Southeast Asian security policies still differ markedly from those of the OECD world. Power and state-centric approaches and a strong reliance on national sovereignty impair collective action.</abstract>
<subject>
<genre>keywords</genre>
<topic>Security</topic>
<topic>Southeast Asia</topic>
<topic>conventional and non-conventional security threats</topic>
<topic>international terrorism</topic>
<topic>regime-building</topic>
</subject>
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<title>Security Dialogue</title>
</titleInfo>
<genre type="journal">journal</genre>
<identifier type="ISSN">0967-0106</identifier>
<identifier type="eISSN">1460-3640</identifier>
<identifier type="PublisherID">SDI</identifier>
<identifier type="PublisherID-hwp">spsdi</identifier>
<part>
<date>2005</date>
<detail type="volume">
<caption>vol.</caption>
<number>36</number>
</detail>
<detail type="issue">
<caption>no.</caption>
<number>4</number>
</detail>
<extent unit="pages">
<start>545</start>
<end>563</end>
</extent>
</part>
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<identifier type="istex">82DE8EE0D3F1253539CA139EC67174E1C841B86C</identifier>
<identifier type="DOI">10.1177/0967010605060453</identifier>
<identifier type="ArticleID">10.1177_0967010605060453</identifier>
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