On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach
Identifieur interne : 000407 ( Istex/Curation ); précédent : 000406; suivant : 000408On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach
Auteurs : Yacov Y. HaimesSource :
- Risk Analysis [ 0272-4332 ] ; 2009-12.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
The premise of this article is that risk to a system, as well as its vulnerability and resilience, can be understood, defined, and quantified most effectively through a systems‐based philosophical and methodological approach, and by recognizing the central role of the system states in this process. A universally agreed‐upon definition of risk has been difficult to develop; one reason is that the concept is multidimensional and nuanced. It requires an understanding that risk to a system is inherently and fundamentally a function of the initiating event, the states of the system and of its environment, and the time frame. In defining risk, this article posits that: (a) the performance capabilities of a system are a function of its state vector; (b) a system's vulnerability and resilience vectors are each a function of the input (e.g., initiating event), its time of occurrence, and the states of the system; (c) the consequences are a function of the specificity and time of the event, the vector of the states, the vulnerability, and the resilience of the system; (d) the states of a system are time‐dependent and commonly fraught with variability uncertainties and knowledge uncertainties; and (e) risk is a measure of the probability and severity of consequences. The above implies that modeling must evaluate consequences for each risk scenario as functions of the threat (initiating event), the vulnerability and resilience of the system, and the time of the event. This fundamentally complex modeling and analysis process cannot be performed correctly and effectively without relying on the states of the system being studied.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01310.x
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000407
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:9DC31A5B666222023EF75F31BE1347E6CF48C571Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach</title>
<author><name sortKey="Haimes, Yacov Y" sort="Haimes, Yacov Y" uniqKey="Haimes Y" first="Yacov Y." last="Haimes">Yacov Y. Haimes</name>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno>
<idno type="RBID">ISTEX:9DC31A5B666222023EF75F31BE1347E6CF48C571</idno>
<date when="2009" year="2009">2009</date>
<idno type="doi">10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01310.x</idno>
<idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/document/9DC31A5B666222023EF75F31BE1347E6CF48C571/fulltext/pdf</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000407</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">000407</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach</title>
<author><name sortKey="Haimes, Yacov Y" sort="Haimes, Yacov Y" uniqKey="Haimes Y" first="Yacov Y." last="Haimes">Yacov Y. Haimes</name>
</author>
</analytic>
<monogr></monogr>
<series><title level="j">Risk Analysis</title>
<title level="j" type="sub">An International Journal</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1539-6924</idno>
<imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Inc</publisher>
<pubPlace>Malden, USA</pubPlace>
<date type="published" when="2009-12">2009-12</date>
<biblScope unit="volume">29</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue">12</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" from="1647">1647</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" to="1654">1654</biblScope>
</imprint>
<idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno>
</series>
<idno type="istex">9DC31A5B666222023EF75F31BE1347E6CF48C571</idno>
<idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01310.x</idno>
<idno type="ArticleID">RISA1310</idno>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0272-4332</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Definition of risk</term>
<term>resilience</term>
<term>state variables</term>
<term>systems approach</term>
<term>threat</term>
<term>time frame</term>
<term>vulnerability</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
<langUsage><language ident="en">en</language>
</langUsage>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The premise of this article is that risk to a system, as well as its vulnerability and resilience, can be understood, defined, and quantified most effectively through a systems‐based philosophical and methodological approach, and by recognizing the central role of the system states in this process. A universally agreed‐upon definition of risk has been difficult to develop; one reason is that the concept is multidimensional and nuanced. It requires an understanding that risk to a system is inherently and fundamentally a function of the initiating event, the states of the system and of its environment, and the time frame. In defining risk, this article posits that: (a) the performance capabilities of a system are a function of its state vector; (b) a system's vulnerability and resilience vectors are each a function of the input (e.g., initiating event), its time of occurrence, and the states of the system; (c) the consequences are a function of the specificity and time of the event, the vector of the states, the vulnerability, and the resilience of the system; (d) the states of a system are time‐dependent and commonly fraught with variability uncertainties and knowledge uncertainties; and (e) risk is a measure of the probability and severity of consequences. The above implies that modeling must evaluate consequences for each risk scenario as functions of the threat (initiating event), the vulnerability and resilience of the system, and the time of the event. This fundamentally complex modeling and analysis process cannot be performed correctly and effectively without relying on the states of the system being studied.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Ticri/CIDE/explor/CyberinfraV1/Data/Istex/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000407 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Istex/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 000407 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Ticri/CIDE |area= CyberinfraV1 |flux= Istex |étape= Curation |type= RBID |clé= ISTEX:9DC31A5B666222023EF75F31BE1347E6CF48C571 |texte= On the Complex Definition of Risk: A Systems‐Based Approach }}
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.25. | ![]() |