Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
Identifieur interne : 000821 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000820; suivant : 000822Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
Auteurs : Benjamin F. Maier [Allemagne] ; Dirk Brockmann [Allemagne]Source :
- Science (New York, N.y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both, quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases.
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DOI: 10.1126/science.abb4557
PubMed: 32269067
PubMed Central: 7164388
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed
COVID-19 cases in China</title><author><name sortKey="Maier, Benjamin F" sort="Maier, Benjamin F" uniqKey="Maier B" first="Benjamin F." last="Maier">Benjamin F. Maier</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brockmann, Dirk" sort="Brockmann, Dirk" uniqKey="Brockmann D" first="Dirk" last="Brockmann">Dirk Brockmann</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32269067</idno><idno type="pmc">7164388</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164388</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7164388</idno><idno type="doi">10.1126/science.abb4557</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000821</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000821</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000821</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000821</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed
COVID-19 cases in China</title><author><name sortKey="Maier, Benjamin F" sort="Maier, Benjamin F" uniqKey="Maier B" first="Benjamin F." last="Maier">Benjamin F. Maier</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brockmann, Dirk" sort="Brockmann, Dirk" uniqKey="Brockmann D" first="Dirk" last="Brockmann">Dirk Brockmann</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.y.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0036-8075</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China was characterized by a distinctive
subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic,
contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show
that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that
effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious
model that captures both, quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals as well as
population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral
changes and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The
insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for
ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent
infectious diseases.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cohen, J" uniqKey="Cohen J">J. Cohen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsu, J" uniqKey="Hsu J">J. Hsu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lewis, T" uniqKey="Lewis T">T. Lewis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, N" uniqKey="Chen N">N. Chen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, M" uniqKey="Zhou M">M. Zhou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dong, X" uniqKey="Dong X">X. Dong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Qu, J" uniqKey="Qu J">J. Qu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gong, F" uniqKey="Gong F">F. Gong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Han, Y" uniqKey="Han Y">Y. Han</name></author><author><name sortKey="Qiu, Y" uniqKey="Qiu Y">Y. Qiu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, J" uniqKey="Wang J">J. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Y" uniqKey="Liu Y">Y. Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wei, Y" uniqKey="Wei Y">Y. Wei</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xia, J" uniqKey="Xia J">J. Xia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, T" uniqKey="Yu T">T. Yu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, X" uniqKey="Zhang X">X. Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, L" uniqKey="Zhang L">L. Zhang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Q" uniqKey="Lin Q">Q. Lin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, J" uniqKey="Ran J">J. Ran</name></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, S S" uniqKey="Musa S">S. S. Musa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, G" uniqKey="Yang G">G. Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, W" uniqKey="Wang W">W. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Y" uniqKey="Lou Y">Y. Lou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, D" uniqKey="Gao D">D. Gao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, L" uniqKey="Yang L">L. Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, D" uniqKey="He D">D. He</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, M H" uniqKey="Wang M">M. H. Wang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dong, E" uniqKey="Dong E">E. Dong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Du, H" uniqKey="Du H">H. Du</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gardner, L" uniqKey="Gardner L">L. Gardner</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="De Picoli Junior, S" uniqKey="De Picoli Junior S">S. de Picoli Junior</name></author><author><name sortKey="Teixeira, J X0a J" uniqKey="Teixeira J">J.
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Science</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Science</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">SCIENCE</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Science (New York, N.y.)</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0036-8075</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1095-9203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>American Association for the Advancement of Science</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32269067</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7164388</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">abb4557</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1126/science.abb4557</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="legacy-article-type"><subject>R-Articles</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="field"><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subject>Medicine</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed
COVID-19 cases in China</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7414-8823</contrib-id><name><surname>Maier</surname><given-names>Benjamin F.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="award" rid="award591535"></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5708-2922</contrib-id><name><surname>Brockmann</surname><given-names>Dirk</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin, Germany.</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>*</label>Corresponding author. Email: <email xlink:href="bfmaier@physik.hu-berlin.de">bfmaier@physik.hu-berlin.de</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>08</day><month>4</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><elocation-id>eabb4557</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>25</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>04</day><month>4</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement> Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive
licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S.
Government Works</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>AAAS</copyright-holder><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><ali:license_ref specific-use="vor" start_date="2020-03-04">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ali:license_ref><license-p>This open access article is distributed under <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY)</ext-link>.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China was characterized by a distinctive
subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic,
contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show
that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that
effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious
model that captures both, quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals as well as
population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral
changes and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The
insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for
ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent
infectious diseases.</p></abstract><funding-group><award-group id="award591535"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="doi">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008662</institution-id><institution>Joachim Herz Stiftung</institution></institution-wrap></funding-source></award-group></funding-group><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>Number-color-figs</meta-name><meta-value>2</meta-value></custom-meta><custom-meta><meta-name>Number-figs</meta-name><meta-value>2</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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