[Short-term predictability of influenza AH1N1 cases based on deterministic models].
Identifieur interne : 000384 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000383; suivant : 000385[Short-term predictability of influenza AH1N1 cases based on deterministic models].
Auteurs : Mauricio Canals L [Chili]Source :
- Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia [ 0716-1018 ] ; 2010.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Chili, Grippe humaine.
- Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Prévision, Santé mondiale, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Chili.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Chile.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Disease Outbreaks, Forecasting, Global Health, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
Influenza AH1N1 severely affected the population of Chile. It has high transmissibility, which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of cases from April to Jun 2009 were analyzed in this study. We developed a simple methodology for short-term forecast of case number, based on deterministic models. Predicted and observed values were compared with regression analyses and Bland-Altman diagrams. We found that the intrinsic rate of increase of the number of cases in the world and in Chile, after an initial high instability, decreases to stable valúes, allowing a relatively accurate forecasting the next day and for a serial period. The estimators obtained are over-estimators, which allow an adequate safety factor for the estimations. The method is easy to implement in software for routine use and can be useful in monitoring this epidemic and others in the future.
DOI: /S0716-10182010000200003
PubMed: 20556312
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pubmed:20556312Le document en format XML
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It has high transmissibility, which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of cases from April to Jun 2009 were analyzed in this study. We developed a simple methodology for short-term forecast of case number, based on deterministic models. Predicted and observed values were compared with regression analyses and Bland-Altman diagrams. We found that the intrinsic rate of increase of the number of cases in the world and in Chile, after an initial high instability, decreases to stable valúes, allowing a relatively accurate forecasting the next day and for a serial period. The estimators obtained are over-estimators, which allow an adequate safety factor for the estimations. The method is easy to implement in software for routine use and can be useful in monitoring this epidemic and others in the future.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">20556312</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2010</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>12</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2014</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>20</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0716-1018</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>27</Volume><Issue>2</Issue><PubDate><Year>2010</Year><Month>Apr</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Revista chilena de infectologia : organo oficial de la Sociedad Chilena de Infectologia</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Rev Chilena Infectol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>[Short-term predictability of influenza AH1N1 cases based on deterministic models].</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>119-25</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">/S0716-10182010000200003</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Influenza AH1N1 severely affected the population of Chile. It has high transmissibility, which may stress the health system capacity. An adequate prediction of number of cases and frequency of complications is needed. Chilean and OMS dialy reports of cases from April to Jun 2009 were analyzed in this study. We developed a simple methodology for short-term forecast of case number, based on deterministic models. Predicted and observed values were compared with regression analyses and Bland-Altman diagrams. We found that the intrinsic rate of increase of the number of cases in the world and in Chile, after an initial high instability, decreases to stable valúes, allowing a relatively accurate forecasting the next day and for a serial period. The estimators obtained are over-estimators, which allow an adequate safety factor for the estimations. The method is easy to implement in software for routine use and can be useful in monitoring this epidemic and others in the future.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Canals L</LastName><ForeName>Mauricio</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile. mcanals@uchile.cl</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>spa</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D004740">English Abstract</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><VernacularTitle>Predictibilidad a corto plazo del número de casos de la influenza pandémica AH1N1 basada en modelos determinísticos.</VernacularTitle><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2010</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>13</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Chile</Country><MedlineTA>Rev Chilena Infectol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9305754</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0716-1018</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002677" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Chile</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="Y">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014943" MajorTopicYN="N">Global Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053118" MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="N">virology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2010</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>18</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2010</Year><Month>6</Month><Day>18</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2010</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>13</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20556312</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0716-10182010000200003</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">/S0716-10182010000200003</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Chili</li></country></list><tree><country name="Chili"><noRegion><name sortKey="Canals L, Mauricio" sort="Canals L, Mauricio" uniqKey="Canals L M" first="Mauricio" last="Canals L">Mauricio Canals L</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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