Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS.
Identifieur interne : 002345 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 002344; suivant : 002346Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS.
Auteurs : K. Glass ; N G BeckerSource :
- Epidemiology and infection [ 0950-2688 ] ; 2006.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Australia (epidemiology), Communicable Disease Control (methods), Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Humans, Mass Screening (organization & administration), Models, Statistical, SARS Virus (isolation & purification), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control), Travel.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Australia.
- epidemiology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- isolation & purification : SARS Virus.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- organization & administration : Mass Screening.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- Humans, Models, Statistical, Travel.
Abstract
Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3-23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2-17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268806005863
PubMed: 16476169
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:16476169Le document en format XML
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Glass</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Becker, N G" sort="Becker, N G" uniqKey="Becker N" first="N G" last="Becker">N G Becker</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2006">2006</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:16476169</idno><idno type="pmid">16476169</idno><idno type="doi">10.1017/S0950268806005863</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">002345</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">002345</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS.</title><author><name sortKey="Glass, K" sort="Glass, K" uniqKey="Glass K" first="K" last="Glass">K. Glass</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Becker, N G" sort="Becker, N G" uniqKey="Becker N" first="N G" last="Becker">N G Becker</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemiology and infection</title><idno type="ISSN">0950-2688</idno><imprint><date when="2006" type="published">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Australia (epidemiology)</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (methods)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Mass Screening (organization & administration)</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>SARS Virus (isolation & purification)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control)</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Australia</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="organization & administration" xml:lang="en"><term>Mass Screening</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Travel</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3-23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2-17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">16476169</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2006</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>09</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2019</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>10</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0950-2688</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>134</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2006</Year><Month>Oct</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Epidemiology and infection</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Epidemiol. Infect.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1092-101</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText>Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3-23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2-17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. 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