Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.
Identifieur interne : 000653 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000652; suivant : 000654Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.
Auteurs : Helen C. Johnson ; Céline M. Gossner ; Edoardo Colzani ; John Kinsman ; Leonidas Alexakis ; Julien Beauté ; Andrea Würz ; Svetla Tsolova ; Nick Bundle ; Karl EkdahlSource :
- Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [ 1560-7917 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Betacoronavirus (pathogenicity), Comorbidity, Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disaster Planning, Epidemics, Europe (epidemiology), European Union, Forecasting, Health Planning, Humans, Internationality, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Public Health, Risk Factors, Uncertainty.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Europe.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- pathogenicity : Betacoronavirus.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Comorbidity, Disaster Planning, Epidemics, European Union, Forecasting, Health Planning, Humans, Internationality, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Risk Factors, Uncertainty.
Abstract
Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202
PubMed: 32156332
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32156332Le document en format XML
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Gossner</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors contributed equally.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colzani, Edoardo" sort="Colzani, Edoardo" uniqKey="Colzani E" first="Edoardo" last="Colzani">Edoardo Colzani</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinsman, John" sort="Kinsman, John" uniqKey="Kinsman J" first="John" last="Kinsman">John Kinsman</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Alexakis, Leonidas" sort="Alexakis, Leonidas" uniqKey="Alexakis L" first="Leonidas" last="Alexakis">Leonidas Alexakis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Beaute, Julien" sort="Beaute, Julien" uniqKey="Beaute J" first="Julien" last="Beauté">Julien Beauté</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wurz, Andrea" sort="Wurz, Andrea" uniqKey="Wurz A" first="Andrea" last="Würz">Andrea Würz</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsolova, Svetla" sort="Tsolova, Svetla" uniqKey="Tsolova S" first="Svetla" last="Tsolova">Svetla Tsolova</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bundle, Nick" sort="Bundle, Nick" uniqKey="Bundle N" first="Nick" last="Bundle">Nick Bundle</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ekdahl, Karl" sort="Ekdahl, Karl" uniqKey="Ekdahl K" first="Karl" last="Ekdahl">Karl Ekdahl</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32156332</idno><idno type="pmid">32156332</idno><idno type="doi">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000653</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000653</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.</title><author><name sortKey="Johnson, Helen C" sort="Johnson, Helen C" uniqKey="Johnson H" first="Helen C" last="Johnson">Helen C. Johnson</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors contributed equally.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gossner, Celine M" sort="Gossner, Celine M" uniqKey="Gossner C" first="Céline M" last="Gossner">Céline M. Gossner</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>These authors contributed equally.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colzani, Edoardo" sort="Colzani, Edoardo" uniqKey="Colzani E" first="Edoardo" last="Colzani">Edoardo Colzani</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinsman, John" sort="Kinsman, John" uniqKey="Kinsman J" first="John" last="Kinsman">John Kinsman</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Alexakis, Leonidas" sort="Alexakis, Leonidas" uniqKey="Alexakis L" first="Leonidas" last="Alexakis">Leonidas Alexakis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Beaute, Julien" sort="Beaute, Julien" uniqKey="Beaute J" first="Julien" last="Beauté">Julien Beauté</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wurz, Andrea" sort="Wurz, Andrea" uniqKey="Wurz A" first="Andrea" last="Würz">Andrea Würz</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsolova, Svetla" sort="Tsolova, Svetla" uniqKey="Tsolova S" first="Svetla" last="Tsolova">Svetla Tsolova</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bundle, Nick" sort="Bundle, Nick" uniqKey="Bundle N" first="Nick" last="Bundle">Nick Bundle</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ekdahl, Karl" sort="Ekdahl, Karl" uniqKey="Ekdahl K" first="Karl" last="Ekdahl">Karl Ekdahl</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</title><idno type="eISSN">1560-7917</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Betacoronavirus (pathogenicity)</term><term>Comorbidity</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disaster Planning</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Europe (epidemiology)</term><term>European Union</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Health Planning</term><term>Humans</term><term>Internationality</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>Uncertainty</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Europe</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Comorbidity</term><term>Disaster Planning</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>European Union</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Health Planning</term><term>Humans</term><term>Internationality</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Risk Factors</term><term>Uncertainty</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32156332</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>20</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1560-7917</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>25</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Euro Surveill.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Johnson</LastName><ForeName>Helen C</ForeName><Initials>HC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>These authors contributed equally.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gossner</LastName><ForeName>Céline M</ForeName><Initials>CM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>These authors contributed equally.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Colzani</LastName><ForeName>Edoardo</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kinsman</LastName><ForeName>John</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Alexakis</LastName><ForeName>Leonidas</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Beauté</LastName><ForeName>Julien</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Würz</LastName><ForeName>Andrea</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tsolova</LastName><ForeName>Svetla</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bundle</LastName><ForeName>Nick</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ekdahl</LastName><ForeName>Karl</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Sweden</Country><MedlineTA>Euro 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MajorTopicYN="N">Internationality</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011634" MajorTopicYN="N">Public Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012307" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D035501" MajorTopicYN="N">Uncertainty</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Europe</Keyword><Keyword 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IdType="pubmed">32003551</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32014114</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(6):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32046815</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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