Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.
Identifieur interne : 000426 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000425; suivant : 000427Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.
Auteurs : Xin Miao Rong ; Liu Yang ; Hui Di Chu ; Meng FanSource :
- Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE [ 1551-0018 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Computer Simulation, Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Delayed Diagnosis, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral (diagnosis), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- diagnosis : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, Computer Simulation, Delayed Diagnosis, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics.
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities of China is a growing global concern. Delay in diagnosis and limited hospital resources lead to a rapid spread of COVID-19. In this study, we investigate the effect of delay in diagnosis on the disease transmission with a new formulated dynamic model. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations reveal that, improving the proportion of timely diagnosis and shortening the waiting time for diagnosis can not eliminate COVID-19 but can effectively decrease the basic reproduction number, significantly reduce the transmission risk, and effectively prevent the endemic of COVID-19, e.g., shorten the peak time and reduce the peak value of new confirmed cases and new infection, decrease the cumulative number of confirmed cases and total infection. More rigorous prevention measures and better treatment of patients are needed to control its further spread, e.g., increasing available hospital beds, shortening the period from symptom onset to isolation of patients, quarantining and isolating the suspected cases as well as all confirmed patients.
DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2020149
PubMed: 32233563
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32233563Le document en format XML
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School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fan, Meng" sort="Fan, Meng" uniqKey="Fan M" first="Meng" last="Fan">Meng Fan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32233563</idno><idno type="pmid">32233563</idno><idno type="doi">10.3934/mbe.2020149</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000426</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000426</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.</title><author><name sortKey="Rong, Xin Miao" sort="Rong, Xin Miao" uniqKey="Rong X" first="Xin Miao" last="Rong">Xin Miao Rong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Liu" sort="Yang, Liu" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Liu" last="Yang">Liu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chu, Hui Di" sort="Chu, Hui Di" uniqKey="Chu H" first="Hui Di" last="Chu">Hui Di Chu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fan, Meng" sort="Fan, Meng" uniqKey="Fan M" first="Meng" last="Fan">Meng Fan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE</title><idno type="eISSN">1551-0018</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (diagnosis)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Delayed 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Theoretical</term><term>Pandemics</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities of China is a growing global concern. Delay in diagnosis and limited hospital resources lead to a rapid spread of COVID-19. In this study, we investigate the effect of delay in diagnosis on the disease transmission with a new formulated dynamic model. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations reveal that, improving the proportion of timely diagnosis and shortening the waiting time for diagnosis can not eliminate COVID-19 but can effectively decrease the basic reproduction number, significantly reduce the transmission risk, and effectively prevent the endemic of COVID-19, e.g., shorten the peak time and reduce the peak value of new confirmed cases and new infection, decrease the cumulative number of confirmed cases and total infection. More rigorous prevention measures and better treatment of patients are needed to control its further spread, e.g., increasing available hospital beds, shortening the period from symptom onset to isolation of patients, quarantining and isolating the suspected cases as well as all confirmed patients.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32233563</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>09</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>09</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1551-0018</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>17</Volume><Issue>3</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>11</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Math Biosci Eng</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Effect of delay in diagnosis on transmission of COVID-19.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>2725-2740</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3934/mbe.2020149</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities of China is a growing global concern. Delay in diagnosis and limited hospital resources lead to a rapid spread of COVID-19. In this study, we investigate the effect of delay in diagnosis on the disease transmission with a new formulated dynamic model. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations reveal that, improving the proportion of timely diagnosis and shortening the waiting time for diagnosis can not eliminate COVID-19 but can effectively decrease the basic reproduction number, significantly reduce the transmission risk, and effectively prevent the endemic of COVID-19, e.g., shorten the peak time and reduce the peak value of new confirmed cases and new infection, decrease the cumulative number of confirmed cases and total infection. More rigorous prevention measures and better treatment of patients are needed to control its further spread, e.g., increasing available hospital beds, shortening the period from symptom onset to isolation of patients, quarantining and isolating the suspected cases as well as all confirmed patients.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rong</LastName><ForeName>Xin Miao</ForeName><Initials>XM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Liu</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chu</LastName><ForeName>Hui di</ForeName><Initials>HD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fan</LastName><ForeName>Meng</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Mathematical Biosciences, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Center for Applied Mathematics (Jilin), Northeast Normal University, 5268 Renmin Street, Changchun, Jilin, 130024, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Math Biosci Eng</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101197794</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1547-1063</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D050936" MajorTopicYN="N">Basic Reproduction Number</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000175" MajorTopicYN="Y">diagnosis</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="Y">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D057210" MajorTopicYN="Y">Delayed Diagnosis</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, 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