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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Bayesian modelling of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome</title><author><name sortKey="Mcbryde, E S" sort="Mcbryde, E S" uniqKey="Mcbryde E" first="E. S." last="Mcbryde">E. S. Mcbryde</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.1024.7</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000089150953</institution-id><institution>School of Mathematical Sciences,</institution><institution>Queensland University of Technology,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416100.2</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000106884634</institution-id><institution>Department of Infectious Diseases,</institution><institution>Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff5"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.467229.c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2227 6516</institution-id><institution>Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute,</institution></institution-wrap>111 Barry Street, Carlton, Melbourne Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gibson, G" sort="Gibson, G" uniqKey="Gibson G" first="G." last="Gibson">G. Gibson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9531.e</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000106567444</institution-id><institution>Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences,</institution><institution>Heriot-Watt University,</institution></institution-wrap>Edinburgh, Scotland</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pettitt, A N" sort="Pettitt, A N" uniqKey="Pettitt A" first="A. N." last="Pettitt">A. N. Pettitt</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.1024.7</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000089150953</institution-id><institution>School of Mathematical Sciences,</institution><institution>Queensland University of Technology,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Y" sort="Zhang, Y" uniqKey="Zhang Y" first="Y." last="Zhang">Y. Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff4">Taiyuan Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Taiyuan, Shanxi P.R. China</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, B" sort="Zhao, B" uniqKey="Zhao B" first="B." last="Zhao">B. Zhao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff4">Taiyuan Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Taiyuan, Shanxi P.R. China</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcelwain, D L S" sort="Mcelwain, D L S" uniqKey="Mcelwain D" first="D. L. S." last="Mcelwain">D. L. S. Mcelwain</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.1024.7</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000089150953</institution-id><institution>School of Mathematical Sciences,</institution><institution>Queensland University of Technology,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">16802088</idno><idno type="pmc">7089340</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089340</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7089340</idno><idno type="doi">10.1007/s11538-005-9005-4</idno><date when="2006">2006</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000331</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000331</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Bayesian modelling of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome</title><author><name sortKey="Mcbryde, E S" sort="Mcbryde, E S" uniqKey="Mcbryde E" first="E. S." last="Mcbryde">E. S. Mcbryde</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.1024.7</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000089150953</institution-id><institution>School of Mathematical Sciences,</institution><institution>Queensland University of Technology,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416100.2</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000106884634</institution-id><institution>Department of Infectious Diseases,</institution><institution>Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff5"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.467229.c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2227 6516</institution-id><institution>Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute,</institution></institution-wrap>111 Barry Street, Carlton, Melbourne Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gibson, G" sort="Gibson, G" uniqKey="Gibson G" first="G." last="Gibson">G. Gibson</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9531.e</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000106567444</institution-id><institution>Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences,</institution><institution>Heriot-Watt University,</institution></institution-wrap>Edinburgh, Scotland</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pettitt, A N" sort="Pettitt, A N" uniqKey="Pettitt A" first="A. N." last="Pettitt">A. N. Pettitt</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.1024.7</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000089150953</institution-id><institution>School of Mathematical Sciences,</institution><institution>Queensland University of Technology,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Y" sort="Zhang, Y" uniqKey="Zhang Y" first="Y." last="Zhang">Y. Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff4">Taiyuan Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Taiyuan, Shanxi P.R. China</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, B" sort="Zhao, B" uniqKey="Zhao B" first="B." last="Zhao">B. Zhao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff4">Taiyuan Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Taiyuan, Shanxi P.R. China</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcelwain, D L S" sort="Mcelwain, D L S" uniqKey="Mcelwain D" first="D. L. S." last="Mcelwain">D. L. S. Mcelwain</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.1024.7</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000089150953</institution-id><institution>School of Mathematical Sciences,</institution><institution>Queensland University of Technology,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Bulletin of Mathematical Biology</title><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno><idno type="eISSN">1522-9602</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>This paper analyses data arising from a SARS epidemic in Shanxi province of China involving a total of 354 people infected with SARS-CoV between late February and late May 2003. Using Bayesian inference, we have estimated critical epidemiological determinants. The estimated mean incubation period was 5.3 days (95% CI 4.2–6.8 days), mean time to hospitalisation was 3.5 days (95% CI 2.8–3.6 days), mean time from symptom onset to recovery was 26 days (95% CI 25–27 days) and mean time from symptom onset to death was 21 days (95% CI 16–26 days). The reproduction ratio was estimated to be 4.8 (95% CI 2.2–8.8) in the early part of the epidemic (February and March 2003) reducing to 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.85) in the later part of the epidemic (April and May 2003). The infectivity of symptomatic SARS cases in hospital and in the community was estimated. <italic>Community</italic> SARS cases caused transmission to others at an estimated rate of 0.4 per infective per day during the early part of the epidemic, reducing to 0.2 in the later part of the epidemic. For <italic>hospitalised</italic> patients, the daily infectivity was approximately 0.15 early in the epidemic, but fell to 0.0006 in the later part of the epidemic. Despite the lower daily infectivity level for <italic>hospitalised</italic> patients, the long duration of the hospitalisation led to a greater number of transmissions within hospitals compared with the community in the early part of the epidemic, as estimated by this study. This study investigated the individual infectivity profile during the symptomatic period, with an estimated peak infectivity on the ninth symptomatic day.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Akaike, H" uniqKey="Akaike H">H. Akaike</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, R M" uniqKey="Anderson R">R.M. Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="May, R M" uniqKey="May R">R.M. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Bull Math Biol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Bull. Math. Biol</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Bulletin of Mathematical Biology</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0092-8240</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1522-9602</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Springer-Verlag</publisher-name><publisher-loc>New York</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">16802088</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7089340</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">9005</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1007/s11538-005-9005-4</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Bayesian modelling of an epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>McBryde</surname><given-names>E. S.</given-names></name><address><phone>+613-8344-1785</phone></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff5">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gibson</surname><given-names>G.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff3">3</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pettitt</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhang</surname><given-names>Y.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff4">4</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhao</surname><given-names>B.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff4">4</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>McElwain</surname><given-names>D. L. S.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref></contrib><aff id="Aff1"><label>1</label><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.1024.7</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000089150953</institution-id><institution>School of Mathematical Sciences,</institution><institution>Queensland University of Technology,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</aff><aff id="Aff2"><label>2</label><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.416100.2</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000106884634</institution-id><institution>Department of Infectious Diseases,</institution><institution>Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital,</institution></institution-wrap>Brisbane, Australia</aff><aff id="Aff3"><label>3</label><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.9531.e</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000106567444</institution-id><institution>Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences,</institution><institution>Heriot-Watt University,</institution></institution-wrap>Edinburgh, Scotland</aff><aff id="Aff4"><label>4</label>Taiyuan Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Taiyuan, Shanxi P.R. China</aff><aff id="Aff5"><label>5</label><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.467229.c</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2227 6516</institution-id><institution>Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute,</institution></institution-wrap>111 Barry Street, Carlton, Melbourne Australia</aff></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>8</day><month>4</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2006</year></pub-date><volume>68</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>889</fpage><lpage>917</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>4</day><month>1</month><year>2005</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>13</day><month>6</month><year>2005</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© Society for Mathematical Biology 2006</copyright-statement><license><license-p>This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract id="Abs1"><p>This paper analyses data arising from a SARS epidemic in Shanxi province of China involving a total of 354 people infected with SARS-CoV between late February and late May 2003. Using Bayesian inference, we have estimated critical epidemiological determinants. The estimated mean incubation period was 5.3 days (95% CI 4.2–6.8 days), mean time to hospitalisation was 3.5 days (95% CI 2.8–3.6 days), mean time from symptom onset to recovery was 26 days (95% CI 25–27 days) and mean time from symptom onset to death was 21 days (95% CI 16–26 days). The reproduction ratio was estimated to be 4.8 (95% CI 2.2–8.8) in the early part of the epidemic (February and March 2003) reducing to 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.85) in the later part of the epidemic (April and May 2003). The infectivity of symptomatic SARS cases in hospital and in the community was estimated. <italic>Community</italic> SARS cases caused transmission to others at an estimated rate of 0.4 per infective per day during the early part of the epidemic, reducing to 0.2 in the later part of the epidemic. For <italic>hospitalised</italic> patients, the daily infectivity was approximately 0.15 early in the epidemic, but fell to 0.0006 in the later part of the epidemic. Despite the lower daily infectivity level for <italic>hospitalised</italic> patients, the long duration of the hospitalisation led to a greater number of transmissions within hospitals compared with the community in the early part of the epidemic, as estimated by this study. This study investigated the individual infectivity profile during the symptomatic period, with an estimated peak infectivity on the ninth symptomatic day.</p></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>SARS</kwd><kwd>Bayesian</kwd><kwd>Modelling</kwd><kwd>Infectious disease</kwd><kwd>Viral transmission</kwd></kwd-group><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>issue-copyright-statement</meta-name><meta-value>© Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list id="Bib1"><title>References</title><ref id="CR1"><element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Akaike</surname><given-names>H.</given-names></name></person-group><article-title>A new look at the statistical model identification</article-title><source>IEEE Trans. Automat. 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Infect. Dis.</source><year>2004</year><volume>10</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>269</fpage><lpage>276</lpage><pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">15030696</pub-id></element-citation></ref></ref-list></back></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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