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<title xml:lang="en">On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hsu, Sze Bi" sort="Hsu, Sze Bi" uniqKey="Hsu S" first="Sze-Bi" last="Hsu">Sze-Bi Hsu</name>
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<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38348.34</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000405320580</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Mathematics,</institution>
<institution>National Tsing-Hua University,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Hsinchu, Taiwan</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hsieh, Ying Hen" sort="Hsieh, Ying Hen" uniqKey="Hsieh Y" first="Ying-Hen" last="Hsieh">Ying-Hen Hsieh</name>
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<nlm:aff id="Aff2">
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<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.254145.3</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000100836092</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Public Health and Biostatistics Center,</institution>
<institution>China Medical University,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Taichung, Taiwan</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
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<idno type="pmid">17701259</idno>
<idno type="pmc">7089371</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089371</idno>
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<idno type="doi">10.1007/s11538-007-9245-6</idno>
<date when="2007">2007</date>
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<title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hsu, Sze Bi" sort="Hsu, Sze Bi" uniqKey="Hsu S" first="Sze-Bi" last="Hsu">Sze-Bi Hsu</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="Aff1">
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<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38348.34</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000405320580</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Mathematics,</institution>
<institution>National Tsing-Hua University,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Hsinchu, Taiwan</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hsieh, Ying Hen" sort="Hsieh, Ying Hen" uniqKey="Hsieh Y" first="Ying-Hen" last="Hsieh">Ying-Hen Hsieh</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="Aff2">
<institution-wrap>
<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.254145.3</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000100836092</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Public Health and Biostatistics Center,</institution>
<institution>China Medical University,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Taichung, Taiwan</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
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<series>
<title level="j">Bulletin of Mathematical Biology</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1522-9602</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2007">2007</date>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>We propose a compartmental disease transmission model with an asymptomatic (or subclinical) infective class to study the role of asymptomatic infection in the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infectives, e.g., influenza. Analytical results are obtained using the respective ratios of susceptible, exposed (incubating), and asymptomatic classes to the clinical symptomatic infective class. Conditions are given for bistability of equilibria to occur, where trajectories with distinct initial values could result in either a major outbreak where the disease spreads to the whole population or a lesser outbreak where some members of the population remain uninfected. This dynamic behavior did not arise in a SARS model without asymptomatic infective class studied by Hsu and Hsieh (SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66(2), 627–647,
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR12">2006</xref>
). Hence, this illustrates that depending on the initial states, control of a disease outbreak with asymptomatic infections may involve more than simply reducing the reproduction number. Moreover, the presence of asymptomatic infections could result in either a positive or negative impact on the outbreak, depending on different sets of conditions on the parameters, as illustrated with numerical simulations. Biological interpretations of the analytical and numerical results are also given. </p>
</div>
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<pmc article-type="research-article">
<pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Bull Math Biol</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Bull. Math. Biol</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Bulletin of Mathematical Biology</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0092-8240</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1522-9602</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>Springer-Verlag</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>New York</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17701259</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7089371</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">9245</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1007/s11538-007-9245-6</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Original Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>On the Role of Asymptomatic Infection in Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Hsu</surname>
<given-names>Sze-Bi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>Ying-Hen</given-names>
</name>
<address>
<phone>886-4-24713907</phone>
<fax>886-4-24713907</fax>
<email>hsieh@amath.nchu.edu.tw</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="Aff1">
<label>1</label>
<institution-wrap>
<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38348.34</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000405320580</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Mathematics,</institution>
<institution>National Tsing-Hua University,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Hsinchu, Taiwan</aff>
<aff id="Aff2">
<label>2</label>
<institution-wrap>
<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.254145.3</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000100836092</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Public Health and Biostatistics Center,</institution>
<institution>China Medical University,</institution>
</institution-wrap>
Taichung, Taiwan</aff>
</contrib-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2007</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub">
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>70</volume>
<issue>1</issue>
<fpage>134</fpage>
<lpage>155</lpage>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>9</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2006</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>24</day>
<month>5</month>
<year>2007</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>© Society for Mathematical Biology 2007</copyright-statement>
<license>
<license-p>This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract id="Abs1">
<p>We propose a compartmental disease transmission model with an asymptomatic (or subclinical) infective class to study the role of asymptomatic infection in the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases with asymptomatic infectives, e.g., influenza. Analytical results are obtained using the respective ratios of susceptible, exposed (incubating), and asymptomatic classes to the clinical symptomatic infective class. Conditions are given for bistability of equilibria to occur, where trajectories with distinct initial values could result in either a major outbreak where the disease spreads to the whole population or a lesser outbreak where some members of the population remain uninfected. This dynamic behavior did not arise in a SARS model without asymptomatic infective class studied by Hsu and Hsieh (SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66(2), 627–647,
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR12">2006</xref>
). Hence, this illustrates that depending on the initial states, control of a disease outbreak with asymptomatic infections may involve more than simply reducing the reproduction number. Moreover, the presence of asymptomatic infections could result in either a positive or negative impact on the outbreak, depending on different sets of conditions on the parameters, as illustrated with numerical simulations. Biological interpretations of the analytical and numerical results are also given. </p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group xml:lang="en">
<title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Influenza</kwd>
<kwd>Asymptomatic infection</kwd>
<kwd>Basic reproduction number</kwd>
<kwd>Bistability</kwd>
<kwd>Threshold asymptomatic fraction</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<custom-meta-group>
<custom-meta>
<meta-name>issue-copyright-statement</meta-name>
<meta-value>© Society for Mathematical Biology 2008</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<back>
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