The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis☆
Identifieur interne : 001871 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 001870; suivant : 001872The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis☆
Auteurs : Johannes Antonie Bogaards [Pays-Bas] ; Hein Putter [Pays-Bas] ; Gerrit Jan Weverling [Pays-Bas] ; Jan Ter Meulen [Pays-Bas] ; Jaap Goudsmit [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease [ 1477-8939 ] ; 2006.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Admission du patient (), Anticorps (usage thérapeutique), Flambées de maladies (), Humains, Lutte contre l'infection (), Mathématiques, Modèles statistiques, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (étiologie), Virus du SRAS (immunologie).
- MESH :
- immunologie : Virus du SRAS.
- usage thérapeutique : Anticorps.
- épidémiologie : Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- étiologie : Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- Admission du patient, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Lutte contre l'infection, Mathématiques, Modèles statistiques, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Antibodies (therapeutic use), Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Humans, Infection Control (methods), Mathematics, Models, Statistical, Patient Admission (statistics & numerical data), SARS Virus (immunology), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (etiology), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control).
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antibodies.
- epidemiology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- etiology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- immunology : SARS Virus.
- methods : Infection Control.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- statistics & numerical data : Patient Admission.
- Humans, Mathematics, Models, Statistical.
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak.
We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number
Assuming a basic reproduction number
Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2006.01.007
PubMed: 17298911
PubMed Central: 7106269
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PMC:7106269Le document en format XML
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Bogaards</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>2301 CA Leiden</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Putter, Hein" sort="Putter, Hein" uniqKey="Putter H" first="Hein" last="Putter">Hein Putter</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Leyde</settlement><region nuts="2" type="province">Hollande-Méridionale</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jan Weverling, Gerrit" sort="Jan Weverling, Gerrit" uniqKey="Jan Weverling G" first="Gerrit" last="Jan Weverling">Gerrit Jan Weverling</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>2301 CA Leiden</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ter Meulen, Jan" sort="Ter Meulen, Jan" uniqKey="Ter Meulen J" first="Jan" last="Ter Meulen">Jan Ter Meulen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>2301 CA Leiden</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goudsmit, Jaap" sort="Goudsmit, Jaap" uniqKey="Goudsmit J" first="Jaap" last="Goudsmit">Jaap Goudsmit</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>2301 CA Leiden</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Center for Poverty-related Communicable Diseases, Amsterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Poverty-related Communicable Diseases, Amsterdam</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Amsterdam</settlement><region nuts="2" type="province">Hollande-Septentrionale</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease</title><idno type="ISSN">1477-8939</idno><idno type="eISSN">1873-0442</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Antibodies (therapeutic use)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infection Control (methods)</term><term>Mathematics</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Patient Admission (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>SARS Virus (immunology)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (etiology)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Admission du patient ()</term><term>Anticorps (usage thérapeutique)</term><term>Flambées de maladies ()</term><term>Humains</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection ()</term><term>Mathématiques</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère ()</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie)</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (étiologie)</term><term>Virus du SRAS (immunologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="therapeutic use" xml:lang="en"><term>Antibodies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="etiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="immunologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Virus du SRAS</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="immunology" xml:lang="en"><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Infection Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Patient Admission</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="usage thérapeutique" xml:lang="fr"><term>Anticorps</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="étiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Mathematics</term><term>Models, Statistical</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Admission du patient</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection</term><term>Mathématiques</term><term>Modèles statistiques</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Background</title><p>Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak.</p></sec><sec><title>Method</title><p>We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number <italic>R</italic>, defined as the number of secondary cases generated by an index case, during different SARS outbreak scenarios.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Assuming a basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>=3, admission of patients to hospital within 4.3 days of symptom onset is necessary to achieve outbreak control without the need to further reduce community-based transmission. Control may be enhanced by providing pre-exposure prophylaxis to contacts of hospitalized patients, and through contact tracing and provision of post-exposure prophylaxis. Antibody prophylaxis may also be employed to reduce <italic>R</italic> below one and thereby restrict outbreak size and duration.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> values and restricts both the size and duration of an outbreak.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A C" uniqKey="Ghani A">A.C. Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G.M. Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, A J" uniqKey="Hedley A">A.J. Hedley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. 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