The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis☆
Identifieur interne : 001511 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 001510; suivant : 001512The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis☆
Auteurs : Johannes Antonie Bogaards [Pays-Bas] ; Hein Putter [Pays-Bas] ; Gerrit Jan Weverling [Pays-Bas] ; Jan Ter Meulen [Pays-Bas] ; Jaap Goudsmit [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease [ 1477-8939 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak.
We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number
Assuming a basic reproduction number
Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher
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DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2006.01.007
PubMed: 17298911
PubMed Central: 7106269
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis<sup><xref ref-type="fn" rid="d32e1892">☆</xref></sup></title><author><name sortKey="Bogaards, Johannes Antonie" sort="Bogaards, Johannes Antonie" uniqKey="Bogaards J" first="Johannes Antonie" last="Bogaards">Johannes Antonie Bogaards</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Putter, Hein" sort="Putter, Hein" uniqKey="Putter H" first="Hein" last="Putter">Hein Putter</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jan Weverling, Gerrit" sort="Jan Weverling, Gerrit" uniqKey="Jan Weverling G" first="Gerrit" last="Jan Weverling">Gerrit Jan Weverling</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ter Meulen, Jan" sort="Ter Meulen, Jan" uniqKey="Ter Meulen J" first="Jan" last="Ter Meulen">Jan Ter Meulen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goudsmit, Jaap" sort="Goudsmit, Jaap" uniqKey="Goudsmit J" first="Jaap" last="Goudsmit">Jaap Goudsmit</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Center for Poverty-related Communicable Diseases, Amsterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Poverty-related Communicable Diseases, Amsterdam</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">17298911</idno><idno type="pmc">7106269</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7106269</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7106269</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.tmaid.2006.01.007</idno><date when="2006">2006</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001511</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001511</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001511</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001511</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis<sup><xref ref-type="fn" rid="d32e1892">☆</xref></sup></title><author><name sortKey="Bogaards, Johannes Antonie" sort="Bogaards, Johannes Antonie" uniqKey="Bogaards J" first="Johannes Antonie" last="Bogaards">Johannes Antonie Bogaards</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Putter, Hein" sort="Putter, Hein" uniqKey="Putter H" first="Hein" last="Putter">Hein Putter</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jan Weverling, Gerrit" sort="Jan Weverling, Gerrit" uniqKey="Jan Weverling G" first="Gerrit" last="Jan Weverling">Gerrit Jan Weverling</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ter Meulen, Jan" sort="Ter Meulen, Jan" uniqKey="Ter Meulen J" first="Jan" last="Ter Meulen">Jan Ter Meulen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goudsmit, Jaap" sort="Goudsmit, Jaap" uniqKey="Goudsmit J" first="Jaap" last="Goudsmit">Jaap Goudsmit</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Center for Poverty-related Communicable Diseases, Amsterdam, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Poverty-related Communicable Diseases, Amsterdam</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease</title><idno type="ISSN">1477-8939</idno><idno type="eISSN">1873-0442</idno><imprint><date when="2006">2006</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Background</title><p>Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak.</p></sec><sec><title>Method</title><p>We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number <italic>R</italic>, defined as the number of secondary cases generated by an index case, during different SARS outbreak scenarios.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Assuming a basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>=3, admission of patients to hospital within 4.3 days of symptom onset is necessary to achieve outbreak control without the need to further reduce community-based transmission. Control may be enhanced by providing pre-exposure prophylaxis to contacts of hospitalized patients, and through contact tracing and provision of post-exposure prophylaxis. Antibody prophylaxis may also be employed to reduce <italic>R</italic> below one and thereby restrict outbreak size and duration.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> values and restricts both the size and duration of an outbreak.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A C" uniqKey="Ghani A">A.C. Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G.M. Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, A J" uniqKey="Hedley A">A.J. Hedley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. 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Nichols</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Travel Med Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Travel Med Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1477-8939</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1873-0442</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Elsevier Ltd.</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">17298911</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7106269</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">S1477-8939(06)00020-2</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.tmaid.2006.01.007</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis<sup><xref ref-type="fn" rid="d32e1892">☆</xref></sup></article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bogaards</surname><given-names>Johannes Antonie</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Putter</surname><given-names>Hein</given-names></name><xref rid="aff2" ref-type="aff">b</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Jan Weverling</surname><given-names>Gerrit</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>ter Meulen</surname><given-names>Jan</given-names></name><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Goudsmit</surname><given-names>Jaap</given-names></name><email>j.goudsmit@crucell.com</email><xref rid="aff1" ref-type="aff">a</xref><xref rid="aff3" ref-type="aff">c</xref><xref rid="cor1" ref-type="corresp">⁎</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>a</label>Crucell Holland BV, PO Box 2048, 2301 CA Leiden, The Netherlands</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>b</label>Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands</aff><aff id="aff3"><label>c</label>Center for Poverty-related Communicable Diseases, Amsterdam, The Netherlands</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>⁎</label>Corresponding author. Tel.: +31 71 5248 753; fax: +31 71 5248 853. <email>j.goudsmit@crucell.com</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>5</day><month>5</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on .</pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>3</month><year>2007</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>5</day><month>5</month><year>2006</year></pub-date><volume>5</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>70</fpage><lpage>78</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>9</day><month>12</month><year>2005</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>16</day><month>1</month><year>2006</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2006</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Elsevier Ltd</copyright-holder><license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><title>Summary</title><sec><title>Background</title><p>Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak.</p></sec><sec><title>Method</title><p>We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number <italic>R</italic>, defined as the number of secondary cases generated by an index case, during different SARS outbreak scenarios.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Assuming a basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>=3, admission of patients to hospital within 4.3 days of symptom onset is necessary to achieve outbreak control without the need to further reduce community-based transmission. Control may be enhanced by providing pre-exposure prophylaxis to contacts of hospitalized patients, and through contact tracing and provision of post-exposure prophylaxis. Antibody prophylaxis may also be employed to reduce <italic>R</italic> below one and thereby restrict outbreak size and duration.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> values and restricts both the size and duration of an outbreak.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group><title>Keywords</title><kwd>SARS</kwd><kwd>Antibody prophylaxis</kwd><kwd>Outbreak control</kwd><kwd>Mathematical model</kwd><kwd>Reproduction number</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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