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An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation

Identifieur interne : 004C80 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 004C79; suivant : 004C81

An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation

Auteurs : Jianguo Tan [République populaire de Chine] ; Lina Mu [République populaire de Chine] ; Jiaxin Huang [République populaire de Chine] ; Shunzhang Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Bingheng Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Jun Yin [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health [ 0143-005X ] ; 2005-03.

RBID : ISTEX:8F5A9A4509418C7C10BB3CF9551EAC60DD11A320

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Concepts météorologiques, Facteurs de risque, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Réplication virale, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (virologie), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (épidémiologie), Taïwan (épidémiologie), Température.
MESH :
- virologie : Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère, Taïwan.
- Concepts météorologiques, Facteurs de risque, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Réplication virale, Température.
Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine, Taïwan.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- China (epidemiology), Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Meteorological Concepts, Risk Factors, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (epidemiology), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (virology), Taiwan (epidemiology), Temperature, Virus Replication, severe acute respiratory syndrome, temperature, weather.
MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China, Taiwan.
- epidemiology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- virology : Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
Teeft :
- April, Average number, Beijing, Climatic possibility, Correlation coefficients, Cumulative deviation, Daily number, Daily numbers, Disease Outbreaks, Environmental factors, Environmental temperature, Epidemic curve, Epidemiol, Epidemiol community health, February, Further investigation, Guangdong province, Guangzhou, Hong kong, Humans, Incubation period, January, Long term, Maximum temperature, Maximum temperature index, Meteorological Concepts, Meteorological factors, Meteorological variables, Minimum temperature, Occurrence frequency, Outbreak, Peak period, Probable sars patients, Relative humidity, Respiratory syndrome, Risk Factors, Sars, Sars cases, Sars epidemic, Sars onset, Sars outbreak, Sars outbreaks, Sars patients, Sars prevalence, Sars virus, Seasonal variation, Significant correlation, Simple correlation, Syndrome, Taiyuan, Temperature, Time series distribution, Tmax, Virus Replication.

Abstract

Objective: To understand the association between the SARS outbreak and the environmental temperature, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against it. Methods: The daily numbers of the probable SARS patients and the daily meteorological factors during the SARS outbreak period in Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Taiyuan were used in the data analysis. Ecological analysis was conducted to explore the association between the daily numbers of probable SARS patients and the environmental temperature and its variations. Results: There was a significant correlation between the SARS cases and the environmental temperature seven days before the onset and the seven day time lag corresponds well with the known incubation period for SARS. The optimum environmental temperature associated with the SARS cases was between 16°C to 28°C, which may encourage virus growth. A sharp rise or decrease in the environmental temperature related to the cold spell led to an increase of the SARS cases because of the possible influence of the weather on the human immune system. This study provided some evidence that there is a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than that in autumn and winter. Conclusion: Current knowledge based on case studies of the SARS outbreak in the four cities suggested that the SARS outbreaks were significantly associated with the temperature and its variations. However, because the fallacy and the uncontrolled confounding effects might have biased the results, the possibility of other meteorological factors having an affect on the SARS outbreaks deserves further investigation.

Url:

DOI: 10.1136/jech.2004.020180

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Objective: To understand the association between the SARS outbreak and the environmental temperature, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against it. Methods: The daily numbers of the probable SARS patients and the daily meteorological factors during the SARS outbreak period in Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Taiyuan were used in the data analysis. Ecological analysis was conducted to explore the association between the daily numbers of probable SARS patients and the environmental temperature and its variations. Results: There was a significant correlation between the SARS cases and the environmental temperature seven days before the onset and the seven day time lag corresponds well with the known incubation period for SARS. The optimum environmental temperature associated with the SARS cases was between 16°C to 28°C, which may encourage virus growth. A sharp rise or decrease in the environmental temperature related to the cold spell led to an increase of the SARS cases because of the possible influence of the weather on the human immune system. This study provided some evidence that there is a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than that in autumn and winter. Conclusion: Current knowledge based on case studies of the SARS outbreak in the four cities suggested that the SARS outbreaks were significantly associated with the temperature and its variations. However, because the fallacy and the uncontrolled confounding effects might have biased the results, the possibility of other meteorological factors having an affect on the SARS outbreaks deserves further investigation.</div>
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An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation

An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation

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Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

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