A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region
Identifieur interne : 001809 ( Istex/Checkpoint ); précédent : 001808; suivant : 001810A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region
Auteurs : M. G Roberts [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; M. Baker [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; L. C Jennings [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; G. Sertsou [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; N. Wilson [Nouvelle-Zélande]Source :
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface [ 1742-5689 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
In the event of an influenza pandemic, the most probable way in which the virus would be introduced to an isolated geographical area is by an infected traveller. We use a mathematical model, structured on the location at which infection occurs and based on published parameters for influenza, to describe an epidemic in a community of one million people. The model is then modified to reflect a variety of control strategies based on social distancing measures, targeted antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis and home quarantine, and the effectiveness of the strategies is compared. The results suggest that the only single strategy that would be successful in preventing an epidemic (with 02.0) is targeted antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, and that closing schools combined with either closing work places or home quarantine would only prevent such an epidemic if these strategies were combined with a modest level of antiviral coverage.
Url:
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0176
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:4AF55F93C64140115BE92CCED61779639466B7ACLe document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region</title>
<author><name sortKey="Roberts, M G" sort="Roberts, M G" uniqKey="Roberts M" first="M. G" last="Roberts">M. G Roberts</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baker, M" sort="Baker, M" uniqKey="Baker M" first="M" last="Baker">M. Baker</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jennings, L C" sort="Jennings, L C" uniqKey="Jennings L" first="L. C" last="Jennings">L. C Jennings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sertsou, G" sort="Sertsou, G" uniqKey="Sertsou G" first="G" last="Sertsou">G. Sertsou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wilson, N" sort="Wilson, N" uniqKey="Wilson N" first="N" last="Wilson">N. Wilson</name>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno>
<idno type="RBID">ISTEX:4AF55F93C64140115BE92CCED61779639466B7AC</idno>
<date when="2006" year="2006">2006</date>
<idno type="doi">10.1098/rsif.2006.0176</idno>
<idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/V84-J8L152ZP-4/fulltext.pdf</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001601</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001601</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">001601</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Checkpoint">001809</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001809</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main">A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region</title>
<author><name sortKey="Roberts, M G" sort="Roberts, M G" uniqKey="Roberts M" first="M. G" last="Roberts">M. G Roberts</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information & Mathematical Sciences, Massey UniversityPrivate Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Auckland</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baker, M" sort="Baker, M" uniqKey="Baker M" first="M" last="Baker">M. Baker</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago UniversityWellington</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Otago UniversityWellington</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jennings, L C" sort="Jennings, L C" uniqKey="Jennings L" first="L. C" last="Jennings">L. C Jennings</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Canterbury Health Laboratories, Canterbury District Health BoardPO Box 151, Christchurch</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Christchurch</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sertsou, G" sort="Sertsou, G" uniqKey="Sertsou G" first="G" last="Sertsou">G. Sertsou</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago UniversityWellington</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Otago UniversityWellington</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wilson, N" sort="Wilson, N" uniqKey="Wilson N" first="N" last="Wilson">N. Wilson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Wellington School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Otago UniversityWellington</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Otago UniversityWellington</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<monogr></monogr>
<series><title level="j" type="main">Journal of The Royal Society Interface</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1742-5662</idno>
<imprint><publisher>The Royal Society</publisher>
<pubPlace>London</pubPlace>
<date type="e-published">2006</date>
<date type="published">2007</date>
<biblScope unit="vol">4</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue">13</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" from="325">325</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="page" to="330">330</biblScope>
</imprint>
<idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1742-5689</idno>
</seriesStmt>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In the event of an influenza pandemic, the most probable way in which the virus would be introduced to an isolated geographical area is by an infected traveller. We use a mathematical model, structured on the location at which infection occurs and based on published parameters for influenza, to describe an epidemic in a community of one million people. The model is then modified to reflect a variety of control strategies based on social distancing measures, targeted antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis and home quarantine, and the effectiveness of the strategies is compared. The results suggest that the only single strategy that would be successful in preventing an epidemic (with 02.0) is targeted antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, and that closing schools combined with either closing work places or home quarantine would only prevent such an epidemic if these strategies were combined with a modest level of antiviral coverage.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Nouvelle-Zélande</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><country name="Nouvelle-Zélande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Roberts, M G" sort="Roberts, M G" uniqKey="Roberts M" first="M. G" last="Roberts">M. G Roberts</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Baker, M" sort="Baker, M" uniqKey="Baker M" first="M" last="Baker">M. Baker</name>
<name sortKey="Jennings, L C" sort="Jennings, L C" uniqKey="Jennings L" first="L. C" last="Jennings">L. C Jennings</name>
<name sortKey="Roberts, M G" sort="Roberts, M G" uniqKey="Roberts M" first="M. G" last="Roberts">M. G Roberts</name>
<name sortKey="Sertsou, G" sort="Sertsou, G" uniqKey="Sertsou G" first="G" last="Sertsou">G. Sertsou</name>
<name sortKey="Wilson, N" sort="Wilson, N" uniqKey="Wilson N" first="N" last="Wilson">N. Wilson</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Istex/Checkpoint
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001809 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Istex/Checkpoint/biblio.hfd -nk 001809 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= SrasV1 |flux= Istex |étape= Checkpoint |type= RBID |clé= ISTEX:4AF55F93C64140115BE92CCED61779639466B7AC |texte= A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region }}
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |