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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013</title>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Haidong" sort="Wang, Haidong" uniqKey="Wang H" first="Haidong" last="Wang">Haidong Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liddell, Chelsea A" sort="Liddell, Chelsea A" uniqKey="Liddell C" first="Chelsea A" last="Liddell">Chelsea A. Liddell</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Coates, Matthew M" sort="Coates, Matthew M" uniqKey="Coates M" first="Matthew M" last="Coates">Matthew M. Coates</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Mooney, Meghan D" sort="Mooney, Meghan D" uniqKey="Mooney M" first="Meghan D" last="Mooney">Meghan D. Mooney</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Levitz, Carly E" sort="Levitz, Carly E" uniqKey="Levitz C" first="Carly E" last="Levitz">Carly E. Levitz</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Schumacher, Austin E" sort="Schumacher, Austin E" uniqKey="Schumacher A" first="Austin E" last="Schumacher">Austin E. Schumacher</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Apfel, Henry" sort="Apfel, Henry" uniqKey="Apfel H" first="Henry" last="Apfel">Henry Apfel</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Iannarone, Marissa" sort="Iannarone, Marissa" uniqKey="Iannarone M" first="Marissa" last="Iannarone">Marissa Iannarone</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Phillips, Bryan" sort="Phillips, Bryan" uniqKey="Phillips B" first="Bryan" last="Phillips">Bryan Phillips</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lofgren, Katherine T" sort="Lofgren, Katherine T" uniqKey="Lofgren K" first="Katherine T" last="Lofgren">Katherine T. Lofgren</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sandar, Logan" sort="Sandar, Logan" uniqKey="Sandar L" first="Logan" last="Sandar">Logan Sandar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dorrington, Rob E" sort="Dorrington, Rob E" uniqKey="Dorrington R" first="Rob E" last="Dorrington">Rob E. Dorrington</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rakovac, Ivo" sort="Rakovac, Ivo" uniqKey="Rakovac I" first="Ivo" last="Rakovac">Ivo Rakovac</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Jacobs, Troy A" sort="Jacobs, Troy A" uniqKey="Jacobs T" first="Troy A" last="Jacobs">Troy A. Jacobs</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Liang, Xiaofeng" sort="Liang, Xiaofeng" uniqKey="Liang X" first="Xiaofeng" last="Liang">Xiaofeng Liang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, Maigeng" sort="Zhou, Maigeng" uniqKey="Zhou M" first="Maigeng" last="Zhou">Maigeng Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhu, Jun" sort="Zhu, Jun" uniqKey="Zhu J" first="Jun" last="Zhu">Jun Zhu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Gonghuan" sort="Yang, Gonghuan" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Gonghuan" last="Yang">Gonghuan Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Yanping" sort="Wang, Yanping" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yanping" last="Wang">Yanping Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, Shiwei" sort="Liu, Shiwei" uniqKey="Liu S" first="Shiwei" last="Liu">Shiwei Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, Yichong" sort="Li, Yichong" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yichong" last="Li">Yichong Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu" sort="Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu" uniqKey="Ozgoren A" first="Ayse Abbasoglu" last="Ozgoren">Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Abera, Semaw Ferede" sort="Abera, Semaw Ferede" uniqKey="Abera S" first="Semaw Ferede" last="Abera">Semaw Ferede Abera</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Abubakar, Ibrahim" sort="Abubakar, Ibrahim" uniqKey="Abubakar I" first="Ibrahim" last="Abubakar">Ibrahim Abubakar</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Achoki, Tom" sort="Achoki, Tom" uniqKey="Achoki T" first="Tom" last="Achoki">Tom Achoki</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Adelekan, Ademola" sort="Adelekan, Ademola" uniqKey="Adelekan A" first="Ademola" last="Adelekan">Ademola Adelekan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ademi, Zanfina" sort="Ademi, Zanfina" uniqKey="Ademi Z" first="Zanfina" last="Ademi">Zanfina Ademi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw" sort="Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw" uniqKey="Alemu Z" first="Zewdie Aderaw" last="Alemu">Zewdie Aderaw Alemu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Allen, Peter J" sort="Allen, Peter J" uniqKey="Allen P" first="Peter J" last="Allen">Peter J. Allen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Almazroa, Mohammad Abdulaziz" sort="Almazroa, Mohammad Abdulaziz" uniqKey="Almazroa M" first="Mohammad Abdulaziz" last="Almazroa">Mohammad Abdulaziz Almazroa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alvarez, Elena" sort="Alvarez, Elena" uniqKey="Alvarez E" first="Elena" last="Alvarez">Elena Alvarez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Amankwaa, Adansi A" sort="Amankwaa, Adansi A" uniqKey="Amankwaa A" first="Adansi A" last="Amankwaa">Adansi A. Amankwaa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Amare, Azmeraw T" sort="Amare, Azmeraw T" uniqKey="Amare A" first="Azmeraw T" last="Amare">Azmeraw T. Amare</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ammar, Walid" sort="Ammar, Walid" uniqKey="Ammar W" first="Walid" last="Ammar">Walid Ammar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Anwari, Palwasha" sort="Anwari, Palwasha" uniqKey="Anwari P" first="Palwasha" last="Anwari">Palwasha Anwari</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu" sort="Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu" uniqKey="Cunningham S" first="Solveig Argeseanu" last="Cunningham">Solveig Argeseanu Cunningham</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Asad, Majed Masoud" sort="Asad, Majed Masoud" uniqKey="Asad M" first="Majed Masoud" last="Asad">Majed Masoud Asad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Assadi, Reza" sort="Assadi, Reza" uniqKey="Assadi R" first="Reza" last="Assadi">Reza Assadi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Banerjee, Amitava" sort="Banerjee, Amitava" uniqKey="Banerjee A" first="Amitava" last="Banerjee">Amitava Banerjee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Basu, Sanjay" sort="Basu, Sanjay" uniqKey="Basu S" first="Sanjay" last="Basu">Sanjay Basu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bedi, Neeraj" sort="Bedi, Neeraj" uniqKey="Bedi N" first="Neeraj" last="Bedi">Neeraj Bedi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bekele, Tolesa" sort="Bekele, Tolesa" uniqKey="Bekele T" first="Tolesa" last="Bekele">Tolesa Bekele</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bell, Michelle L" sort="Bell, Michelle L" uniqKey="Bell M" first="Michelle L" last="Bell">Michelle L. Bell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bhutta, Zulfiqar" sort="Bhutta, Zulfiqar" uniqKey="Bhutta Z" first="Zulfiqar" last="Bhutta">Zulfiqar Bhutta</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Blore, Jed" sort="Blore, Jed" uniqKey="Blore J" first="Jed" last="Blore">Jed Blore</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Basara, Berrak Bora" sort="Basara, Berrak Bora" uniqKey="Basara B" first="Berrak Bora" last="Basara">Berrak Bora Basara</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boufous, Soufiane" sort="Boufous, Soufiane" uniqKey="Boufous S" first="Soufiane" last="Boufous">Soufiane Boufous</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Breitborde, Nicholas" sort="Breitborde, Nicholas" uniqKey="Breitborde N" first="Nicholas" last="Breitborde">Nicholas Breitborde</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bruce, Nigel G" sort="Bruce, Nigel G" uniqKey="Bruce N" first="Nigel G" last="Bruce">Nigel G. Bruce</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bui, Linh Ngoc" sort="Bui, Linh Ngoc" uniqKey="Bui L" first="Linh Ngoc" last="Bui">Linh Ngoc Bui</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Carapetis, Jonathan R" sort="Carapetis, Jonathan R" uniqKey="Carapetis J" first="Jonathan R" last="Carapetis">Jonathan R. Carapetis</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cardenas, Rosario" sort="Cardenas, Rosario" uniqKey="Cardenas R" first="Rosario" last="Cárdenas">Rosario Cárdenas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Carpenter, David O" sort="Carpenter, David O" uniqKey="Carpenter D" first="David O" last="Carpenter">David O. Carpenter</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Caso, Valeria" sort="Caso, Valeria" uniqKey="Caso V" first="Valeria" last="Caso">Valeria Caso</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Castro, Ruben Estanislao" sort="Castro, Ruben Estanislao" uniqKey="Castro R" first="Ruben Estanislao" last="Castro">Ruben Estanislao Castro</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Catala Lopez, Ferran" sort="Catala Lopez, Ferran" uniqKey="Catala Lopez F" first="Ferrán" last="Catalá-Lopéz">Ferrán Catalá-Lopéz</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cavlin, Alanur" sort="Cavlin, Alanur" uniqKey="Cavlin A" first="Alanur" last="Cavlin">Alanur Cavlin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Che, Xuan" sort="Che, Xuan" uniqKey="Che X" first="Xuan" last="Che">Xuan Che</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia" sort="Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia" uniqKey="Chiang P" first="Peggy Pei-Chia" last="Chiang">Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowdhury, Rajiv" sort="Chowdhury, Rajiv" uniqKey="Chowdhury R" first="Rajiv" last="Chowdhury">Rajiv Chowdhury</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Christophi, Costas A" sort="Christophi, Costas A" uniqKey="Christophi C" first="Costas A" last="Christophi">Costas A. Christophi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chuang, Ting Wu" sort="Chuang, Ting Wu" uniqKey="Chuang T" first="Ting-Wu" last="Chuang">Ting-Wu Chuang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cirillo, Massimo" sort="Cirillo, Massimo" uniqKey="Cirillo M" first="Massimo" last="Cirillo">Massimo Cirillo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leite, Iuri Da Costa" sort="Leite, Iuri Da Costa" uniqKey="Leite I" first="Iuri Da Costa" last="Leite">Iuri Da Costa Leite</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Courville, Karen J" sort="Courville, Karen J" uniqKey="Courville K" first="Karen J" last="Courville">Karen J. Courville</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dandona, Lalit" sort="Dandona, Lalit" uniqKey="Dandona L" first="Lalit" last="Dandona">Lalit Dandona</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dandona, Rakhi" sort="Dandona, Rakhi" uniqKey="Dandona R" first="Rakhi" last="Dandona">Rakhi Dandona</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Davis, Adrian" sort="Davis, Adrian" uniqKey="Davis A" first="Adrian" last="Davis">Adrian Davis</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dayama, Anand" sort="Dayama, Anand" uniqKey="Dayama A" first="Anand" last="Dayama">Anand Dayama</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Deribe, Kebede" sort="Deribe, Kebede" uniqKey="Deribe K" first="Kebede" last="Deribe">Kebede Deribe</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dharmaratne, Samath D" sort="Dharmaratne, Samath D" uniqKey="Dharmaratne S" first="Samath D" last="Dharmaratne">Samath D. Dharmaratne</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dherani, Mukesh K" sort="Dherani, Mukesh K" uniqKey="Dherani M" first="Mukesh K" last="Dherani">Mukesh K. Dherani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dilmen, U Ur" sort="Dilmen, U Ur" uniqKey="Dilmen U" first="U Ur" last="Dilmen">U Ur Dilmen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ding, Eric L" sort="Ding, Eric L" uniqKey="Ding E" first="Eric L" last="Ding">Eric L. Ding</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Edmond, Karen M" sort="Edmond, Karen M" uniqKey="Edmond K" first="Karen M" last="Edmond">Karen M. Edmond</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich" sort="Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich" uniqKey="Ermakov S" first="Sergei Petrovich" last="Ermakov">Sergei Petrovich Ermakov</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Farzadfar, Farshad" sort="Farzadfar, Farshad" uniqKey="Farzadfar F" first="Farshad" last="Farzadfar">Farshad Farzadfar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad" sort="Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad" uniqKey="Fereshtehnejad S" first="Seyed-Mohammad" last="Fereshtehnejad">Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fijabi, Daniel Obadare" sort="Fijabi, Daniel Obadare" uniqKey="Fijabi D" first="Daniel Obadare" last="Fijabi">Daniel Obadare Fijabi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Foigt, Nataliya" sort="Foigt, Nataliya" uniqKey="Foigt N" first="Nataliya" last="Foigt">Nataliya Foigt</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Forouzanfar, Mohammad H" sort="Forouzanfar, Mohammad H" uniqKey="Forouzanfar M" first="Mohammad H" last="Forouzanfar">Mohammad H. Forouzanfar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Garcia, Ana C" sort="Garcia, Ana C" uniqKey="Garcia A" first="Ana C" last="Garcia">Ana C. Garcia</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Geleijnse, Johanna M" sort="Geleijnse, Johanna M" uniqKey="Geleijnse J" first="Johanna M" last="Geleijnse">Johanna M. Geleijnse</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gessner, Bradford D" sort="Gessner, Bradford D" uniqKey="Gessner B" first="Bradford D" last="Gessner">Bradford D. Gessner</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Goginashvili, Ketevan" sort="Goginashvili, Ketevan" uniqKey="Goginashvili K" first="Ketevan" last="Goginashvili">Ketevan Goginashvili</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gona, Philimon" sort="Gona, Philimon" uniqKey="Gona P" first="Philimon" last="Gona">Philimon Gona</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Goto, Atsushi" sort="Goto, Atsushi" uniqKey="Goto A" first="Atsushi" last="Goto">Atsushi Goto</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gouda, Hebe N" sort="Gouda, Hebe N" uniqKey="Gouda H" first="Hebe N" last="Gouda">Hebe N. Gouda</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Green, Mark A" sort="Green, Mark A" uniqKey="Green M" first="Mark A" last="Green">Mark A. Green</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Greenwell, Karen Fern" sort="Greenwell, Karen Fern" uniqKey="Greenwell K" first="Karen Fern" last="Greenwell">Karen Fern Greenwell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gugnani, Harish Chander" sort="Gugnani, Harish Chander" uniqKey="Gugnani H" first="Harish Chander" last="Gugnani">Harish Chander Gugnani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gupta, Rahul" sort="Gupta, Rahul" uniqKey="Gupta R" first="Rahul" last="Gupta">Rahul Gupta</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi" sort="Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi" uniqKey="Hamadeh R" first="Randah Ribhi" last="Hamadeh">Randah Ribhi Hamadeh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hammami, Mouhanad" sort="Hammami, Mouhanad" uniqKey="Hammami M" first="Mouhanad" last="Hammami">Mouhanad Hammami</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Harb, Hilda L" sort="Harb, Hilda L" uniqKey="Harb H" first="Hilda L" last="Harb">Hilda L. Harb</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hay, Simon" sort="Hay, Simon" uniqKey="Hay S" first="Simon" last="Hay">Simon Hay</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hedayati, Mohammad T" sort="Hedayati, Mohammad T" uniqKey="Hedayati M" first="Mohammad T" last="Hedayati">Mohammad T. Hedayati</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hosgood, H Dean" sort="Hosgood, H Dean" uniqKey="Hosgood H" first="H Dean" last="Hosgood">H Dean Hosgood</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hoy, Damian G" sort="Hoy, Damian G" uniqKey="Hoy D" first="Damian G" last="Hoy">Damian G. Hoy</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Idrisov, Bulat T" sort="Idrisov, Bulat T" uniqKey="Idrisov B" first="Bulat T" last="Idrisov">Bulat T. Idrisov</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Islami, Farhad" sort="Islami, Farhad" uniqKey="Islami F" first="Farhad" last="Islami">Farhad Islami</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ismayilova, Samaya" sort="Ismayilova, Samaya" uniqKey="Ismayilova S" first="Samaya" last="Ismayilova">Samaya Ismayilova</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jha, Vivekanand" sort="Jha, Vivekanand" uniqKey="Jha V" first="Vivekanand" last="Jha">Vivekanand Jha</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jiang, Guohong" sort="Jiang, Guohong" uniqKey="Jiang G" first="Guohong" last="Jiang">Guohong Jiang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jonas, Jost B" sort="Jonas, Jost B" uniqKey="Jonas J" first="Jost B" last="Jonas">Jost B. Jonas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Juel, Knud" sort="Juel, Knud" uniqKey="Juel K" first="Knud" last="Juel">Knud Juel</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kabagambe, Edmond Kato" sort="Kabagambe, Edmond Kato" uniqKey="Kabagambe E" first="Edmond Kato" last="Kabagambe">Edmond Kato Kabagambe</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kazi, Dhruv S" sort="Kazi, Dhruv S" uniqKey="Kazi D" first="Dhruv S" last="Kazi">Dhruv S. Kazi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kengne, Andre Pascal" sort="Kengne, Andre Pascal" uniqKey="Kengne A" first="Andre Pascal" last="Kengne">Andre Pascal Kengne</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kereselidze, Maia" sort="Kereselidze, Maia" uniqKey="Kereselidze M" first="Maia" last="Kereselidze">Maia Kereselidze</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khader, Yousef Saleh" sort="Khader, Yousef Saleh" uniqKey="Khader Y" first="Yousef Saleh" last="Khader">Yousef Saleh Khader</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan" sort="Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan" uniqKey="Khalifa S" first="Shams Eldin Ali Hassan" last="Khalifa">Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khang, Young Ho" sort="Khang, Young Ho" uniqKey="Khang Y" first="Young-Ho" last="Khang">Young-Ho Khang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kim, Daniel" sort="Kim, Daniel" uniqKey="Kim D" first="Daniel" last="Kim">Daniel Kim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kinfu, Yohannes" sort="Kinfu, Yohannes" uniqKey="Kinfu Y" first="Yohannes" last="Kinfu">Yohannes Kinfu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kinge, Jonas M" sort="Kinge, Jonas M" uniqKey="Kinge J" first="Jonas M" last="Kinge">Jonas M. Kinge</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kokubo, Yoshihiro" sort="Kokubo, Yoshihiro" uniqKey="Kokubo Y" first="Yoshihiro" last="Kokubo">Yoshihiro Kokubo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kosen, Soewarta" sort="Kosen, Soewarta" uniqKey="Kosen S" first="Soewarta" last="Kosen">Soewarta Kosen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Defo, Barthelemy Kuate" sort="Defo, Barthelemy Kuate" uniqKey="Defo B" first="Barthelemy Kuate" last="Defo">Barthelemy Kuate Defo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kumar, G Anil" sort="Kumar, G Anil" uniqKey="Kumar G" first="G Anil" last="Kumar">G Anil Kumar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kumar, Kaushalendra" sort="Kumar, Kaushalendra" uniqKey="Kumar K" first="Kaushalendra" last="Kumar">Kaushalendra Kumar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kumar, Ravi B" sort="Kumar, Ravi B" uniqKey="Kumar R" first="Ravi B" last="Kumar">Ravi B. Kumar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lai, Taavi" sort="Lai, Taavi" uniqKey="Lai T" first="Taavi" last="Lai">Taavi Lai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lan, Qing" sort="Lan, Qing" uniqKey="Lan Q" first="Qing" last="Lan">Qing Lan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Larsson, Anders" sort="Larsson, Anders" uniqKey="Larsson A" first="Anders" last="Larsson">Anders Larsson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, Jong Tae" sort="Lee, Jong Tae" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jong-Tae" last="Lee">Jong-Tae Lee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leinsalu, Mall" sort="Leinsalu, Mall" uniqKey="Leinsalu M" first="Mall" last="Leinsalu">Mall Leinsalu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lim, Stephen S" sort="Lim, Stephen S" uniqKey="Lim S" first="Stephen S" last="Lim">Stephen S. Lim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipshultz, Steven E" sort="Lipshultz, Steven E" uniqKey="Lipshultz S" first="Steven E" last="Lipshultz">Steven E. Lipshultz</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Logroscino, Giancarlo" sort="Logroscino, Giancarlo" uniqKey="Logroscino G" first="Giancarlo" last="Logroscino">Giancarlo Logroscino</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lotufo, Paulo A" sort="Lotufo, Paulo A" uniqKey="Lotufo P" first="Paulo A" last="Lotufo">Paulo A. Lotufo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lunevicius, Raimundas" sort="Lunevicius, Raimundas" uniqKey="Lunevicius R" first="Raimundas" last="Lunevicius">Raimundas Lunevicius</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lyons, Ronan Anthony" sort="Lyons, Ronan Anthony" uniqKey="Lyons R" first="Ronan Anthony" last="Lyons">Ronan Anthony Lyons</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ma, Stefan" sort="Ma, Stefan" uniqKey="Ma S" first="Stefan" last="Ma">Stefan Ma</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mahdi, Abbas Ali" sort="Mahdi, Abbas Ali" uniqKey="Mahdi A" first="Abbas Ali" last="Mahdi">Abbas Ali Mahdi</name>
</author>
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</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">24797572</idno>
<idno type="pmc">4165626</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4165626</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:4165626</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9</idno>
<date when="2014">2014</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001B49</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001B49</idno>
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<author><name sortKey="Amare, Azmeraw T" sort="Amare, Azmeraw T" uniqKey="Amare A" first="Azmeraw T" last="Amare">Azmeraw T. Amare</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ammar, Walid" sort="Ammar, Walid" uniqKey="Ammar W" first="Walid" last="Ammar">Walid Ammar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Anwari, Palwasha" sort="Anwari, Palwasha" uniqKey="Anwari P" first="Palwasha" last="Anwari">Palwasha Anwari</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu" sort="Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu" uniqKey="Cunningham S" first="Solveig Argeseanu" last="Cunningham">Solveig Argeseanu Cunningham</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Asad, Majed Masoud" sort="Asad, Majed Masoud" uniqKey="Asad M" first="Majed Masoud" last="Asad">Majed Masoud Asad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Assadi, Reza" sort="Assadi, Reza" uniqKey="Assadi R" first="Reza" last="Assadi">Reza Assadi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Banerjee, Amitava" sort="Banerjee, Amitava" uniqKey="Banerjee A" first="Amitava" last="Banerjee">Amitava Banerjee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Basu, Sanjay" sort="Basu, Sanjay" uniqKey="Basu S" first="Sanjay" last="Basu">Sanjay Basu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bedi, Neeraj" sort="Bedi, Neeraj" uniqKey="Bedi N" first="Neeraj" last="Bedi">Neeraj Bedi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bekele, Tolesa" sort="Bekele, Tolesa" uniqKey="Bekele T" first="Tolesa" last="Bekele">Tolesa Bekele</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bell, Michelle L" sort="Bell, Michelle L" uniqKey="Bell M" first="Michelle L" last="Bell">Michelle L. Bell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bhutta, Zulfiqar" sort="Bhutta, Zulfiqar" uniqKey="Bhutta Z" first="Zulfiqar" last="Bhutta">Zulfiqar Bhutta</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Blore, Jed" sort="Blore, Jed" uniqKey="Blore J" first="Jed" last="Blore">Jed Blore</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Basara, Berrak Bora" sort="Basara, Berrak Bora" uniqKey="Basara B" first="Berrak Bora" last="Basara">Berrak Bora Basara</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boufous, Soufiane" sort="Boufous, Soufiane" uniqKey="Boufous S" first="Soufiane" last="Boufous">Soufiane Boufous</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Breitborde, Nicholas" sort="Breitborde, Nicholas" uniqKey="Breitborde N" first="Nicholas" last="Breitborde">Nicholas Breitborde</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bruce, Nigel G" sort="Bruce, Nigel G" uniqKey="Bruce N" first="Nigel G" last="Bruce">Nigel G. Bruce</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bui, Linh Ngoc" sort="Bui, Linh Ngoc" uniqKey="Bui L" first="Linh Ngoc" last="Bui">Linh Ngoc Bui</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Carapetis, Jonathan R" sort="Carapetis, Jonathan R" uniqKey="Carapetis J" first="Jonathan R" last="Carapetis">Jonathan R. Carapetis</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cardenas, Rosario" sort="Cardenas, Rosario" uniqKey="Cardenas R" first="Rosario" last="Cárdenas">Rosario Cárdenas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Carpenter, David O" sort="Carpenter, David O" uniqKey="Carpenter D" first="David O" last="Carpenter">David O. Carpenter</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Caso, Valeria" sort="Caso, Valeria" uniqKey="Caso V" first="Valeria" last="Caso">Valeria Caso</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Castro, Ruben Estanislao" sort="Castro, Ruben Estanislao" uniqKey="Castro R" first="Ruben Estanislao" last="Castro">Ruben Estanislao Castro</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Catala Lopez, Ferran" sort="Catala Lopez, Ferran" uniqKey="Catala Lopez F" first="Ferrán" last="Catalá-Lopéz">Ferrán Catalá-Lopéz</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cavlin, Alanur" sort="Cavlin, Alanur" uniqKey="Cavlin A" first="Alanur" last="Cavlin">Alanur Cavlin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Che, Xuan" sort="Che, Xuan" uniqKey="Che X" first="Xuan" last="Che">Xuan Che</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia" sort="Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia" uniqKey="Chiang P" first="Peggy Pei-Chia" last="Chiang">Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowdhury, Rajiv" sort="Chowdhury, Rajiv" uniqKey="Chowdhury R" first="Rajiv" last="Chowdhury">Rajiv Chowdhury</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Christophi, Costas A" sort="Christophi, Costas A" uniqKey="Christophi C" first="Costas A" last="Christophi">Costas A. Christophi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chuang, Ting Wu" sort="Chuang, Ting Wu" uniqKey="Chuang T" first="Ting-Wu" last="Chuang">Ting-Wu Chuang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cirillo, Massimo" sort="Cirillo, Massimo" uniqKey="Cirillo M" first="Massimo" last="Cirillo">Massimo Cirillo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leite, Iuri Da Costa" sort="Leite, Iuri Da Costa" uniqKey="Leite I" first="Iuri Da Costa" last="Leite">Iuri Da Costa Leite</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Courville, Karen J" sort="Courville, Karen J" uniqKey="Courville K" first="Karen J" last="Courville">Karen J. Courville</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dandona, Lalit" sort="Dandona, Lalit" uniqKey="Dandona L" first="Lalit" last="Dandona">Lalit Dandona</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dandona, Rakhi" sort="Dandona, Rakhi" uniqKey="Dandona R" first="Rakhi" last="Dandona">Rakhi Dandona</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Davis, Adrian" sort="Davis, Adrian" uniqKey="Davis A" first="Adrian" last="Davis">Adrian Davis</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dayama, Anand" sort="Dayama, Anand" uniqKey="Dayama A" first="Anand" last="Dayama">Anand Dayama</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Deribe, Kebede" sort="Deribe, Kebede" uniqKey="Deribe K" first="Kebede" last="Deribe">Kebede Deribe</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dharmaratne, Samath D" sort="Dharmaratne, Samath D" uniqKey="Dharmaratne S" first="Samath D" last="Dharmaratne">Samath D. Dharmaratne</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dherani, Mukesh K" sort="Dherani, Mukesh K" uniqKey="Dherani M" first="Mukesh K" last="Dherani">Mukesh K. Dherani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dilmen, U Ur" sort="Dilmen, U Ur" uniqKey="Dilmen U" first="U Ur" last="Dilmen">U Ur Dilmen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ding, Eric L" sort="Ding, Eric L" uniqKey="Ding E" first="Eric L" last="Ding">Eric L. Ding</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Edmond, Karen M" sort="Edmond, Karen M" uniqKey="Edmond K" first="Karen M" last="Edmond">Karen M. Edmond</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich" sort="Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich" uniqKey="Ermakov S" first="Sergei Petrovich" last="Ermakov">Sergei Petrovich Ermakov</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Farzadfar, Farshad" sort="Farzadfar, Farshad" uniqKey="Farzadfar F" first="Farshad" last="Farzadfar">Farshad Farzadfar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad" sort="Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad" uniqKey="Fereshtehnejad S" first="Seyed-Mohammad" last="Fereshtehnejad">Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fijabi, Daniel Obadare" sort="Fijabi, Daniel Obadare" uniqKey="Fijabi D" first="Daniel Obadare" last="Fijabi">Daniel Obadare Fijabi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Foigt, Nataliya" sort="Foigt, Nataliya" uniqKey="Foigt N" first="Nataliya" last="Foigt">Nataliya Foigt</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Forouzanfar, Mohammad H" sort="Forouzanfar, Mohammad H" uniqKey="Forouzanfar M" first="Mohammad H" last="Forouzanfar">Mohammad H. Forouzanfar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Garcia, Ana C" sort="Garcia, Ana C" uniqKey="Garcia A" first="Ana C" last="Garcia">Ana C. Garcia</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Geleijnse, Johanna M" sort="Geleijnse, Johanna M" uniqKey="Geleijnse J" first="Johanna M" last="Geleijnse">Johanna M. Geleijnse</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gessner, Bradford D" sort="Gessner, Bradford D" uniqKey="Gessner B" first="Bradford D" last="Gessner">Bradford D. Gessner</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Goginashvili, Ketevan" sort="Goginashvili, Ketevan" uniqKey="Goginashvili K" first="Ketevan" last="Goginashvili">Ketevan Goginashvili</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gona, Philimon" sort="Gona, Philimon" uniqKey="Gona P" first="Philimon" last="Gona">Philimon Gona</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Goto, Atsushi" sort="Goto, Atsushi" uniqKey="Goto A" first="Atsushi" last="Goto">Atsushi Goto</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gouda, Hebe N" sort="Gouda, Hebe N" uniqKey="Gouda H" first="Hebe N" last="Gouda">Hebe N. Gouda</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Green, Mark A" sort="Green, Mark A" uniqKey="Green M" first="Mark A" last="Green">Mark A. Green</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Greenwell, Karen Fern" sort="Greenwell, Karen Fern" uniqKey="Greenwell K" first="Karen Fern" last="Greenwell">Karen Fern Greenwell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gugnani, Harish Chander" sort="Gugnani, Harish Chander" uniqKey="Gugnani H" first="Harish Chander" last="Gugnani">Harish Chander Gugnani</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gupta, Rahul" sort="Gupta, Rahul" uniqKey="Gupta R" first="Rahul" last="Gupta">Rahul Gupta</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi" sort="Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi" uniqKey="Hamadeh R" first="Randah Ribhi" last="Hamadeh">Randah Ribhi Hamadeh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hammami, Mouhanad" sort="Hammami, Mouhanad" uniqKey="Hammami M" first="Mouhanad" last="Hammami">Mouhanad Hammami</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Harb, Hilda L" sort="Harb, Hilda L" uniqKey="Harb H" first="Hilda L" last="Harb">Hilda L. Harb</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hay, Simon" sort="Hay, Simon" uniqKey="Hay S" first="Simon" last="Hay">Simon Hay</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hedayati, Mohammad T" sort="Hedayati, Mohammad T" uniqKey="Hedayati M" first="Mohammad T" last="Hedayati">Mohammad T. Hedayati</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hosgood, H Dean" sort="Hosgood, H Dean" uniqKey="Hosgood H" first="H Dean" last="Hosgood">H Dean Hosgood</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hoy, Damian G" sort="Hoy, Damian G" uniqKey="Hoy D" first="Damian G" last="Hoy">Damian G. Hoy</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Idrisov, Bulat T" sort="Idrisov, Bulat T" uniqKey="Idrisov B" first="Bulat T" last="Idrisov">Bulat T. Idrisov</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Islami, Farhad" sort="Islami, Farhad" uniqKey="Islami F" first="Farhad" last="Islami">Farhad Islami</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ismayilova, Samaya" sort="Ismayilova, Samaya" uniqKey="Ismayilova S" first="Samaya" last="Ismayilova">Samaya Ismayilova</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jha, Vivekanand" sort="Jha, Vivekanand" uniqKey="Jha V" first="Vivekanand" last="Jha">Vivekanand Jha</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jiang, Guohong" sort="Jiang, Guohong" uniqKey="Jiang G" first="Guohong" last="Jiang">Guohong Jiang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jonas, Jost B" sort="Jonas, Jost B" uniqKey="Jonas J" first="Jost B" last="Jonas">Jost B. Jonas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Juel, Knud" sort="Juel, Knud" uniqKey="Juel K" first="Knud" last="Juel">Knud Juel</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kabagambe, Edmond Kato" sort="Kabagambe, Edmond Kato" uniqKey="Kabagambe E" first="Edmond Kato" last="Kabagambe">Edmond Kato Kabagambe</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kazi, Dhruv S" sort="Kazi, Dhruv S" uniqKey="Kazi D" first="Dhruv S" last="Kazi">Dhruv S. Kazi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kengne, Andre Pascal" sort="Kengne, Andre Pascal" uniqKey="Kengne A" first="Andre Pascal" last="Kengne">Andre Pascal Kengne</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kereselidze, Maia" sort="Kereselidze, Maia" uniqKey="Kereselidze M" first="Maia" last="Kereselidze">Maia Kereselidze</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khader, Yousef Saleh" sort="Khader, Yousef Saleh" uniqKey="Khader Y" first="Yousef Saleh" last="Khader">Yousef Saleh Khader</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan" sort="Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan" uniqKey="Khalifa S" first="Shams Eldin Ali Hassan" last="Khalifa">Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Khang, Young Ho" sort="Khang, Young Ho" uniqKey="Khang Y" first="Young-Ho" last="Khang">Young-Ho Khang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kim, Daniel" sort="Kim, Daniel" uniqKey="Kim D" first="Daniel" last="Kim">Daniel Kim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kinfu, Yohannes" sort="Kinfu, Yohannes" uniqKey="Kinfu Y" first="Yohannes" last="Kinfu">Yohannes Kinfu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kinge, Jonas M" sort="Kinge, Jonas M" uniqKey="Kinge J" first="Jonas M" last="Kinge">Jonas M. Kinge</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kokubo, Yoshihiro" sort="Kokubo, Yoshihiro" uniqKey="Kokubo Y" first="Yoshihiro" last="Kokubo">Yoshihiro Kokubo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kosen, Soewarta" sort="Kosen, Soewarta" uniqKey="Kosen S" first="Soewarta" last="Kosen">Soewarta Kosen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Defo, Barthelemy Kuate" sort="Defo, Barthelemy Kuate" uniqKey="Defo B" first="Barthelemy Kuate" last="Defo">Barthelemy Kuate Defo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kumar, G Anil" sort="Kumar, G Anil" uniqKey="Kumar G" first="G Anil" last="Kumar">G Anil Kumar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kumar, Kaushalendra" sort="Kumar, Kaushalendra" uniqKey="Kumar K" first="Kaushalendra" last="Kumar">Kaushalendra Kumar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kumar, Ravi B" sort="Kumar, Ravi B" uniqKey="Kumar R" first="Ravi B" last="Kumar">Ravi B. Kumar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lai, Taavi" sort="Lai, Taavi" uniqKey="Lai T" first="Taavi" last="Lai">Taavi Lai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lan, Qing" sort="Lan, Qing" uniqKey="Lan Q" first="Qing" last="Lan">Qing Lan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Larsson, Anders" sort="Larsson, Anders" uniqKey="Larsson A" first="Anders" last="Larsson">Anders Larsson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, Jong Tae" sort="Lee, Jong Tae" uniqKey="Lee J" first="Jong-Tae" last="Lee">Jong-Tae Lee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leinsalu, Mall" sort="Leinsalu, Mall" uniqKey="Leinsalu M" first="Mall" last="Leinsalu">Mall Leinsalu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lim, Stephen S" sort="Lim, Stephen S" uniqKey="Lim S" first="Stephen S" last="Lim">Stephen S. Lim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipshultz, Steven E" sort="Lipshultz, Steven E" uniqKey="Lipshultz S" first="Steven E" last="Lipshultz">Steven E. Lipshultz</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Logroscino, Giancarlo" sort="Logroscino, Giancarlo" uniqKey="Logroscino G" first="Giancarlo" last="Logroscino">Giancarlo Logroscino</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lotufo, Paulo A" sort="Lotufo, Paulo A" uniqKey="Lotufo P" first="Paulo A" last="Lotufo">Paulo A. Lotufo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lunevicius, Raimundas" sort="Lunevicius, Raimundas" uniqKey="Lunevicius R" first="Raimundas" last="Lunevicius">Raimundas Lunevicius</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lyons, Ronan Anthony" sort="Lyons, Ronan Anthony" uniqKey="Lyons R" first="Ronan Anthony" last="Lyons">Ronan Anthony Lyons</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ma, Stefan" sort="Ma, Stefan" uniqKey="Ma S" first="Stefan" last="Ma">Stefan Ma</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mahdi, Abbas Ali" sort="Mahdi, Abbas Ali" uniqKey="Mahdi A" first="Abbas Ali" last="Mahdi">Abbas Ali Mahdi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Marzan, Melvin Barrientos" sort="Marzan, Melvin Barrientos" uniqKey="Marzan M" first="Melvin Barrientos" last="Marzan">Melvin Barrientos Marzan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq" sort="Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq" uniqKey="Mashal M" first="Mohammad Taufiq" last="Mashal">Mohammad Taufiq Mashal</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mazorodze, Tasara T" sort="Mazorodze, Tasara T" uniqKey="Mazorodze T" first="Tasara T" last="Mazorodze">Tasara T. Mazorodze</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcgrath, John J" sort="Mcgrath, John J" uniqKey="Mcgrath J" first="John J" last="Mcgrath">John J. Mcgrath</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Memish, Ziad A" sort="Memish, Ziad A" uniqKey="Memish Z" first="Ziad A" last="Memish">Ziad A. Memish</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendoza, Walter" sort="Mendoza, Walter" uniqKey="Mendoza W" first="Walter" last="Mendoza">Walter Mendoza</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mensah, George A" sort="Mensah, George A" uniqKey="Mensah G" first="George A" last="Mensah">George A. Mensah</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Meretoja, Atte" sort="Meretoja, Atte" uniqKey="Meretoja A" first="Atte" last="Meretoja">Atte Meretoja</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Ted R" sort="Miller, Ted R" uniqKey="Miller T" first="Ted R" last="Miller">Ted R. Miller</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mills, Edward J" sort="Mills, Edward J" uniqKey="Mills E" first="Edward J" last="Mills">Edward J. Mills</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin" sort="Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin" uniqKey="Mohammad K" first="Karzan Abdulmuhsin" last="Mohammad">Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mokdad, Ali H" sort="Mokdad, Ali H" uniqKey="Mokdad A" first="Ali H" last="Mokdad">Ali H. Mokdad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Monasta, Lorenzo" sort="Monasta, Lorenzo" uniqKey="Monasta L" first="Lorenzo" last="Monasta">Lorenzo Monasta</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Montico, Marcella" sort="Montico, Marcella" uniqKey="Montico M" first="Marcella" last="Montico">Marcella Montico</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Moore, Ami R" sort="Moore, Ami R" uniqKey="Moore A" first="Ami R" last="Moore">Ami R. Moore</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Moschandreas, Joanna" sort="Moschandreas, Joanna" uniqKey="Moschandreas J" first="Joanna" last="Moschandreas">Joanna Moschandreas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Msemburi, William T" sort="Msemburi, William T" uniqKey="Msemburi W" first="William T" last="Msemburi">William T. Msemburi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mueller, Ulrich O" sort="Mueller, Ulrich O" uniqKey="Mueller U" first="Ulrich O" last="Mueller">Ulrich O. Mueller</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Muszynska, Magdalena M" sort="Muszynska, Magdalena M" uniqKey="Muszynska M" first="Magdalena M" last="Muszynska">Magdalena M. Muszynska</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Naghavi, Mohsen" sort="Naghavi, Mohsen" uniqKey="Naghavi M" first="Mohsen" last="Naghavi">Mohsen Naghavi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Naidoo, Kovin S" sort="Naidoo, Kovin S" uniqKey="Naidoo K" first="Kovin S" last="Naidoo">Kovin S. Naidoo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Narayan, Km Venkat" sort="Narayan, Km Venkat" uniqKey="Narayan K" first="Km Venkat" last="Narayan">Km Venkat Narayan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nejjari, Chakib" sort="Nejjari, Chakib" uniqKey="Nejjari C" first="Chakib" last="Nejjari">Chakib Nejjari</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ng, Marie" sort="Ng, Marie" uniqKey="Ng M" first="Marie" last="Ng">Marie Ng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ngirabega, Jean De Dieu" sort="Ngirabega, Jean De Dieu" uniqKey="Ngirabega J" first="Jean De Dieu" last="Ngirabega">Jean De Dieu Ngirabega</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J" sort="Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J" uniqKey="Nieuwenhuijsen M" first="Mark J" last="Nieuwenhuijsen">Mark J. Nieuwenhuijsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nyakarahuka, Luke" sort="Nyakarahuka, Luke" uniqKey="Nyakarahuka L" first="Luke" last="Nyakarahuka">Luke Nyakarahuka</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ohkubo, Takayoshi" sort="Ohkubo, Takayoshi" uniqKey="Ohkubo T" first="Takayoshi" last="Ohkubo">Takayoshi Ohkubo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Omer, Saad B" sort="Omer, Saad B" uniqKey="Omer S" first="Saad B" last="Omer">Saad B. Omer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Caicedo, Angel J Paternina" sort="Caicedo, Angel J Paternina" uniqKey="Caicedo A" first="Angel J Paternina" last="Caicedo">Angel J Paternina Caicedo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wyk, Victoria Pillay Van" sort="Wyk, Victoria Pillay Van" uniqKey="Wyk V" first="Victoria Pillay-Van" last="Wyk">Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk</name>
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<series><title level="j">Lancet</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0140-6736</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno>
<imprint><date when="2014">2014</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title>
<sec id="S1"><title>Background</title>
<p id="P4">Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S2"><title>Methods</title>
<p id="P5">We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S3"><title>Findings</title>
<p id="P6">We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S4"><title>Interpretation</title>
<p id="P7">Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S5"><title>Funding</title>
<p id="P8">Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<pmc-dir>properties manuscript</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-journal-id">2985213R</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="pubmed-jr-id">5470</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Lancet</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Lancet</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Lancet</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0140-6736</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1474-547X</issn>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">24797572</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4165626</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="manuscript">EMS60026</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013</article-title>
</title-group>
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<given-names>Haidong</given-names>
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<given-names>Meghan D</given-names>
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<given-names>Carly E</given-names>
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<given-names>Austin E</given-names>
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<given-names>Henry</given-names>
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<given-names>Marissa</given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Phillips</surname>
<given-names>Bryan</given-names>
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</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lofgren</surname>
<given-names>Katherine T</given-names>
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<given-names>Logan</given-names>
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<given-names>Rob E</given-names>
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</contrib>
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<given-names>Ivo</given-names>
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<given-names>Troy A</given-names>
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</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Liang</surname>
<given-names>Xiaofeng</given-names>
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<given-names>Maigeng</given-names>
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<given-names>Jun</given-names>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Gonghuan</given-names>
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<given-names>Yanping</given-names>
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<given-names>Shiwei</given-names>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Yichong</given-names>
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<given-names>Ayse Abbasoglu</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Abera</surname>
<given-names>Semaw Ferede</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Abubakar</surname>
<given-names>Ibrahim</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Achoki</surname>
<given-names>Tom</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Adelekan</surname>
<given-names>Ademola</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ademi</surname>
<given-names>Zanfina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Alemu</surname>
<given-names>Zewdie Aderaw</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<given-names>Mohammad AbdulAziz</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<given-names>Elena</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<given-names>Adansi A</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<given-names>Azmeraw T</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<given-names>Walid</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Anwari</surname>
<given-names>Palwasha</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cunningham</surname>
<given-names>Solveig Argeseanu</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Asad</surname>
<given-names>Majed Masoud</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Assadi</surname>
<given-names>Reza</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Banerjee</surname>
<given-names>Amitava</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Basu</surname>
<given-names>Sanjay</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bedi</surname>
<given-names>Neeraj</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bekele</surname>
<given-names>Tolesa</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bell</surname>
<given-names>Michelle L</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bhutta</surname>
<given-names>Zulfiqar</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Blore</surname>
<given-names>Jed</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Basara</surname>
<given-names>Berrak Bora</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
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</contrib>
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<given-names>Ferrán</given-names>
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<given-names>Alanur</given-names>
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</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Omer</surname>
<given-names>Saad B</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Caicedo</surname>
<given-names>Angel J Paternina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wyk</surname>
<given-names>Victoria Pillay-van</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pope</surname>
<given-names>Dan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Prabhakaran</surname>
<given-names>Dorairaj</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rahman</surname>
<given-names>Sajjad UR</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rana</surname>
<given-names>Saleem M</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Reilly</surname>
<given-names>Robert Quentin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rojas-Rueda</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ronfani</surname>
<given-names>Luca</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rushton</surname>
<given-names>Lesley</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Saeedi</surname>
<given-names>Mohammad Yahya</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Salomon</surname>
<given-names>Joshua</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sampson</surname>
<given-names>Uchechukwu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Santos</surname>
<given-names>Itamar S</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sawhney</surname>
<given-names>Monika</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Schmidt</surname>
<given-names>Jürgen C</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Nazarova</surname>
<given-names>Marina Shakh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>She</surname>
<given-names>Jun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sheikhbahaei</surname>
<given-names>Sara</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Shibuya</surname>
<given-names>Kenji</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Shin</surname>
<given-names>Hwashin Hyun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Shishani</surname>
<given-names>Kawkab</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Shiue</surname>
<given-names>Ivy</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sigfusdottir</surname>
<given-names>Inga Dora</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Singh</surname>
<given-names>Jasvinder A</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Skirbekk</surname>
<given-names>Vegard</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sliwa</surname>
<given-names>Karen</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Soshnikov</surname>
<given-names>Sergey S</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sposato</surname>
<given-names>Luciano A</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Stathopoulou</surname>
<given-names>Vasiliki Kalliopi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Stroumpoulis</surname>
<given-names>Konstantinos</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tabb</surname>
<given-names>Karen M</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Talongwa</surname>
<given-names>Roberto Tchio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Teixeira</surname>
<given-names>Carolina Maria</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Terkawi</surname>
<given-names>Abdullah Sulieman</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Thomson</surname>
<given-names>Alan J</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lyman</surname>
<given-names>Andrew L Thorne</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Toyoshima</surname>
<given-names>Hideaki</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Dimbuene</surname>
<given-names>Zacharie Tsala</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Uwaliraye</surname>
<given-names>Parfait</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Uzun</surname>
<given-names>Selen Begüm</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vasankari</surname>
<given-names>Tommi J</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vasconcelos</surname>
<given-names>Ana Maria Nogales</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vlassov</surname>
<given-names>Vasiliy Victorovich</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vollset</surname>
<given-names>Stein Emil</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vos</surname>
<given-names>Theo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Waller</surname>
<given-names>Stephen</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wan</surname>
<given-names>Xia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Weichenthal</surname>
<given-names>Scott</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Weiderpass</surname>
<given-names>Elisabete</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Weintraub</surname>
<given-names>Robert G</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Westerman</surname>
<given-names>Ronny</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wilkinson</surname>
<given-names>James D</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Williams</surname>
<given-names>Hywel C</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Yang C</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yentur</surname>
<given-names>Gokalp Kadri</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yip</surname>
<given-names>Paul</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yonemoto</surname>
<given-names>Naohiro</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Younis</surname>
<given-names>Mustafa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yu</surname>
<given-names>Chuanhua</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Jin</surname>
<given-names>Kim Yun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zaki</surname>
<given-names>Maysaa El Sayed</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhu</surname>
<given-names>Shankuan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">†</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lopez</surname>
<given-names>Alan D</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN2">‡</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Murray</surname>
<given-names>Christopher J L</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN2">‡</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="A1">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA (H Wang PhD, C A Liddell BE, M M Coates AB, M D Mooney BS, C E Levitz BA, A E Schumacher BS, H Apfel BA, M Iannarone MA, B Phillips BA, K T Lofgren MPH, L Sandar BS, T Achoki PhD, Prof L Dandona PhD, M H Forouzanfar PhD, S S Lim PhD, A H Mokdad PhD, M Naghavi PhD, M Ng PhD, T Vos PhD, Prof C J L Murray DPhil); Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa (Prof K Sliwa PhD), University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa (Prof R E Dorrington MPhil); WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark (I Rakovac PhD); MCH Division, USAID – Global Health Bureau, HIDN, Washington, DC, USA (T A Jacobs MD); National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China (X Liang MPH, Prof M Zhou PhD, S Liu PhD, Y Li MS); National Office for Maternal and Child’s Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China (Prof J Zhu MD, Prof Y Wang BS); Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China (Prof G Jiang MD)<bold>; Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China</bold>
(Prof G Yang MD); Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ankara, Turkey (A Abbasoglu Ozgoren MSc, A Cavlin PhD)<bold>; Mekelle University, Tigray, Ethiopia</bold>
(S F Abera MSc); University College London, London, United Kingdom (Prof I Abubakar PhD)<bold>; Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana</bold>
(T Achoki MD); Public Health Promotion Alliance, Osogpb, Nigeria (A Adelekan PhD); General Practice and Primary Health Care Academic Centre (P P-C Chiang PhD), University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (Z Ademi MPharm, J Blore PhD, A Meretoja PhD, R G Weintraub MB, Prof A D Lopez PhD)<bold>; Debre Markos Univerity, Debre Markos, Ethiopia</bold>
(Z A Alemu MPH)<bold>; Ministry of Health, Belmopan, Cayo, Belize</bold>
(P J Allen DDS); Saudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (M A AlMazroa MD, Prof Z A Memish MD, M Y Saeedi PhD)<bold>; Government, Madrid, Spain</bold>
(E Alvarez PhD)<bold>; Albany State University, Albany, GA, USA</bold>
(Prof A A Amankwaa PhD); Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands (A T Amare MPH)<bold>; Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon</bold>
(Prof W Ammar PhD, H L Harb MPH)<bold>; UNFPA, Kabul, Afghanistan</bold>
(P Anwari MSc)<bold>; School of Medicine</bold>
(A Dayama MD)<bold>, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA</bold>
(S Argeseanu Cunningham PhD, Prof K M V Narayan MD, S B Omer MBBS)<bold>; Ministry of Health, Amman, Jordan</bold>
(M M Asad PhD); Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Khorasan, Iran (R Assadi MD); University of Birmingham, Birmingham, West Midlands, United Kingdom (A Banerjee MA)<bold>; Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA</bold>
(S Basu PhD); College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia (Prof N Bedi MD); Madawalabu University, Bale Goba, Oromia, Ethiopia (T Bekele MPH)<bold>; Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA</bold>
(Prof M L Bell PhD); Aga Khan University Medical Center, Karachi, Pakistan (Prof Z Bhutta PhD); Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey (B Bora Basara PhD, Prof U Dilmen MD, S B Uzun BA, G K Yentur MSc); Transport and Road Safety (TARS) Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia (S Boufous PhD)<bold>; University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA</bold>
(Prof N Breitborde PhD); University of Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom (Prof N G Bruce PhD, M K Dherani PhD, D Pope PhD)<bold>; Hanoi School of Public Health, Hanoi, Vietnam</bold>
(L N Bui MIPH); Telethon Institute for Child Health Research, Subiaco, WA, Australia (Prof J R Carapetis PhD); Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico, DF, Mexico (Prof R Cárdenas ScD)<bold>; University at Albany, Rensselaer, NY, USA</bold>
(D O Carpenter MD); Stroke Unit, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy (V Caso PhD)<bold>; Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile</bold>
(Prof R E Castro PhD); Division of Pharmacology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain (F Catalá-Lopéz PhD); Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science (CTRIS), National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (G A Mensah MD)<bold>, National Cancer Institute</bold>
(Prof Q Lan PhD)<bold>, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA</bold>
(X Che PhD); University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom (R Chowdhury MD); Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus (C A Christophi PhD)<bold>; Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan</bold>
(Prof T-W Chuang PhD)<bold>; University of Salerno, Baronissi, SA, Italy</bold>
(Prof M Cirillo MD); National School of Public Health (ENSP/Fiocruz), Rio De Janeiro, Brazil (I da Costa Leite PhD); Hospital Dr. Gustavo N. Collado, Chitre, Herrera, Panama (K J Courville MD); Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India (Prof L Dandona, R Dandona PhD, G A Kumar PhD, R B Kumar MD)<bold>; Public Health England, London, United Kingdom</bold>
(Prof A Davis PhD, J C Schmidt MSc)<bold>; Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia</bold>
(K Deribe MPH); University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka (S D Dharmaratne MD); Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA (E L Ding ScD, Prof J Salomon PhD); University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia (Prof K M Edmond PhD); The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia (Prof S P Ermakov DSc); Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrine and Metabolic Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran (F Farzadfar MD, S Sheikhbahaei MD); Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (Prof E Weiderpass PhD)<bold>, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden</bold>
(S-M Fereshtehnejad MD)<bold>; Heller Graduate School</bold>
(D O Fijabi MBBS)<bold>, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA</bold>
(B T Idrisov MD); Institute of Gerontology, Academy of Medical Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine (N Foigt PhD); Public Health Unit of Primary Health Care Group of Almada-Seixal (region of Lisbon), Almada, Portugal (A C Garcia MPH); Wageningen University, Division of Human Nutrition, Wageningen, the Netherlands (J M Geleijnse PhD)<bold>; Agence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, France</bold>
(B D Gessner MD); Ministry of Labour, Health, and Social Affairs, Tbilisi, Georgia (K Goginashvili MPH); University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA (Prof P Gona PhD); Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan (A Goto PhD)<bold>; School of Population Health</bold>
(D G Hoy PhD), University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia (H N Gouda PhD, Prof J J McGrath MD); University of Sheffield, Sheffield, South York, United Kingdom (M A Green MSc); Stattis LLC, Chisinau, Moldova (K F Greenwell PhD); Saint James School of Medicine, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles (Prof H C Gugnani PhD); Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA (R Gupta MD)<bold>; Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain</bold>
(Prof R R Hamadeh DPhil); Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA (M Hammami MD)<bold>; University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom</bold>
(Prof S Hay DPhil); Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran (Prof M T Hedayati PhD); Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA (Prof H D Hosgood PhD); Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia (D G Hoy)<bold>; American Cancer Society, New York, NY, USA</bold>
(F Islami PhD)<bold>; Self-Employed, Baku, Azerbaijan</bold>
(S Ismayilova MPH); Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India (Prof V Jha DM); Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany (Prof J B Jonas MD); The National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark (Prof K Juel PhD)<bold>; Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA</bold>
(E K Kabagambe PhD, U Sampson MD); University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA (D S Kazi MD); South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa (A P Kengne PhD, V Pillay-van Wyk PhD, W T Msemburi MPhil); National Centre for Diseases Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia (M Kereselidze PhD, M Shakh-Nazarova MS); Jordan University of Science and Technology, AlRamtha, Irbid, Jordan (Prof Y S Khader ScD)<bold>; Supreme Council of Health, Doha, Qatar</bold>
(S E A H Khalifa MSc); Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea (Prof Y-H Khang PhD)<bold>; Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA</bold>
(Prof D Kim MD)<bold>; University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia</bold>
(Y Kinfu PhD); The Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway (J M Kinge PhD, Prof V Skirbekk PhD, Prof S E Vollset MD); Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, Japan (Y Kokubo PhD); Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy & Humanities, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia (S Kosen MD)<bold>; University of Montreal Montreal, Quebec, Canada</bold>
(Prof B Kuate Defo PhD); International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India (K Kumar MPS)<bold>; Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia</bold>
(T Lai PhD)<bold>; Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden</bold>
(Prof A Larsson PhD)<bold>; Korea University, Seoul, South Korea</bold>
(Prof J-T Lee PhD); The National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia (M Leinsalu PhD)<bold>; Wayne State University, Miami, FL, USA</bold>
(S E Lipshultz MD)<bold>; University of Bari, Bari, Italy</bold>
(Prof G Logroscino PhD)<bold>; University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil</bold>
(Prof P A Lotufo MD, Prof I S Santos PhD); Aintree University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, United Kingdom (R Lunevicius PhD)<bold>; Swansea University, Swansea, United Kingdom</bold>
(Prof R A Lyons MD)<bold>; Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore</bold>
(S Ma PhD); King George’s Medical University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India (Prof A A Mahdi PhD)<bold>; Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan</bold>
(M T Mashal PhD); University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Medical Center, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines (M B Marzan MSc); AIDC EC, Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, South Africa (T T Mazorodze MA)<bold>; UNFPA,Lima, Peru</bold>
(W Mendoza MD); Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, MD, USA (T R Miller PhD)<bold>; University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada</bold>
(E J Mills PhD)<bold>; University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq</bold>
(K A Mohammad PhD); Institute for Maternal and Child Health – IRCCS “Burlo Garofolo,” Trieste, Italy (L Monasta DSc, M Montico MSc, L Ronfani PhD)<bold>; University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA</bold>
(Prof A R Moore PhD)<bold>; University of Crete, Crete, Greece</bold>
(J Moshcandreas PhD); Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Hessia, Germany (Prof U O Mueller PhD, R Westerman PhD)<bold>; Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland</bold>
(M M Muszynska PhD); University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (Prof K S Naidoo PhD); Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah, Fez, Morocco (Prof C Nejjari PhD)<bold>; Rwanda Biomedical Center, Kigali, Rwanda</bold>
(J d D Ngirabega PhD); Centre of Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain (N J Nieuwenhuijsen PhD, D Rojas-Rueda PhD)<bold>; Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda</bold>
(L Nyakarahuka MPH); Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan (Prof T Ohkubo MD); Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena, Bolivar, Colombia (A J Paternina Caicedo MSc); Centre for Chronic Disease Control, New Delhi, Delhi, India (Prof D Prabhakaran MD)<bold>; Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar</bold>
(S U R Rahman FCPS); Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan (S M Rana PhD)<bold>; Private Consultant, Cairns, QLD, Australia</bold>
(R Q Reilly MPH)<bold>; Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom</bold>
(L Rushton PhD)<bold>; Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA</bold>
(M Sawhney PhD); Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan, University, Shanghai, China (J She PhD)<bold>; University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan</bold>
(K Shibuya PhD)<bold>; Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada</bold>
(H H Shin PhD, S Weichenthal PhD)<bold>; Washington State University, Spokane, WA, USA</bold>
(K Shishani PhD); Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom (I Shiue PhD)<bold>; Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland</bold>
(I D Sigfusdottir PhD); University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA (J A Singh MD); Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia (S S Soshnikov PhD); Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada (L A Sposato MD); Centre Hospitalier Nord Deux-Sevres, Bressuire, France (V K Stathopoulou MD); KEELPNO (Center for Disease Control, Greece, dispatched to “Alexandra” General Hospital of Athens), Athens, Greece (K Stroumpoulis PhD)<bold>; University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA</bold>
(K M Tabb PhD)<bold>; Ministry of Health, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon</bold>
(R T Talongwa MD)<bold>; ARS Norte, Porto, Portugal</bold>
(C M Teixeira MD); Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA, and Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (A S Terkawi MD); Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, BC, Canada (A J Thomson PhD); Columbia University and The Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA (A L Thorne-Lyman ScD); Health Care Center of Anjo Kosei Hospital, Anjo City, Aichi Prefecture, Japan (H Toyoshima MD); Department of Population Sciences and Development, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (Z Tsala Dimbuene PhD)<bold>; Ministry of Health, Rwanda, Kigali City, Rwanda</bold>
(P Uwaliraye MD); UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland (Prof T J Vasankari PhD); Universidade de Brasilia, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil (Prof A M N Vasconcelos PhD); National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia (Prof V V Vlassov MD); Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA (S Waller MD); Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China (X Wan PhD); Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (R G Weintraub)<bold>; University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA</bold>
(J D Wilkinson MD); University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom (Prof H C Williams DSc)<bold>; Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China</bold>
(Prof Y Gonghuan MD); University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC. USA (Y C Yang PhD)<bold>; The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</bold>
(Prof P Yip PhD); National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodira, Tokyo, Japan (N Yonemoto MPH)<bold>; Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA</bold>
(Prof M Younis PhD); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, and Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China (Prof C Yu PhD); TCM MEDICAL TK SDN BHD, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia (K Yun Jin PhD)<bold>; Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt</bold>
(Prof M E S Zaki MD); and Zhejiang University School of Public Health, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China (Prof S Zhu PhD)</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes><corresp id="CR1"><label>*</label>
Correspondence to: Dr Haidong Wang, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, USA <email>haidong@uw.edu</email>
</corresp>
<fn id="FN1"><label>†</label>
<p id="P1">Authors listed alphabetically</p>
</fn>
<fn id="FN2"><label>‡</label>
<p id="P2">Joint senior authors</p>
</fn>
<fn id="FN3"><p id="P3"><bold>Contributors:</bold>
CJLM, ADL, and HW conceived of the study and provided overall guidance. HW, CAL, MMC, CEL, AES, HA, MI, and LS analysed child mortality data sources. CJLM, ADL, HW, CAL, and MMC reviewed each cycle of estimation in detail. HW, CAL, MMC, MDM, CEL, AES, BP, CJLM, and ADL prepared the first draft. HW, ADL, CJLM, CAL, MMC, MDM, CEL, and AES finalised the draft based on comments from other authors and reviewer feedback. All other authors reviewed results, provided guidance on the selection of key data sources, and reviewed the paper.</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted"><day>13</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day>
<month>5</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>13</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>16</day>
<month>9</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>384</volume>
<issue>9947</issue>
<fpage>957</fpage>
<lpage>979</lpage>
<pmc-comment>elocation-id from pubmed: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9</pmc-comment>
<abstract><title>Summary</title>
<sec id="S1"><title>Background</title>
<p id="P4">Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S2"><title>Methods</title>
<p id="P5">We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S3"><title>Findings</title>
<p id="P6">We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S4"><title>Interpretation</title>
<p id="P7">Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="S5"><title>Funding</title>
<p id="P8">Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
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