Serveur d'exploration sur les pandémies grippales

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Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention

Identifieur interne : 000C53 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C52; suivant : 000C54

Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention

Auteurs : Matt Boyd [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Michael G. Baker [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Osman D. Mansoor [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Giorgi Kvizhinadze [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Nick Wilson [Nouvelle-Zélande]

Source :

RBID : PMC:5473559

Abstract

Background

Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations.

Objective

To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country.

Methods

An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses).

Results

For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial).

Conclusions

This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0178732
PubMed: 28622344
PubMed Central: 5473559

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PMC:5473559

Le document en format XML

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<p>Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations.</p>
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<p>For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial).</p>
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<name>
<surname>Boyd</surname>
<given-names>Matt</given-names>
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<sup>1</sup>
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<name>
<surname>Baker</surname>
<given-names>Michael G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Mansoor</surname>
<given-names>Osman D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Kvizhinadze</surname>
<given-names>Giorgi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002">
<sup>2</sup>
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<name>
<surname>Wilson</surname>
<given-names>Nick</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002">
<sup>2</sup>
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<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref>
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</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff001">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Adapt Research Ltd, Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff002">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff003">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>39 Mortimer Tce, Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="editor">
<name>
<surname>Hutton</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<role>Editor</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="edit1">
<addr-line>University of Michigan, UNITED STATES</addr-line>
</aff>
<author-notes>
<fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="coi001">
<p>
<bold>Competing Interests: </bold>
The first author (MB) is the sole employee (and owner) of Adapt Research Ltd. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="con">
<p>
<list list-type="simple">
<list-item>
<p>
<bold>Conceptualization:</bold>
NW M. Boyd M. Baker OM.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<bold>Formal analysis:</bold>
M. Boyd GK.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<bold>Investigation:</bold>
M. Boyd GK.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<bold>Resources:</bold>
NW.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<bold>Visualization:</bold>
M. Boyd NW GK.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<bold>Writing – original draft:</bold>
M. Boyd NW.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p>
<bold>Writing – review & editing:</bold>
NW M. Boyd M. Baker OM GK.</p>
</list-item>
</list>
</p>
</fn>
<corresp id="cor001">* E-mail:
<email>nick.wilson@otago.ac.nz</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>16</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>12</volume>
<issue>6</issue>
<elocation-id>e0178732</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>11</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>18</day>
<month>5</month>
<year>2017</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>© 2017 Boyd et al</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2017</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>Boyd et al</copyright-holder>
<license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link>
, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="pone.0178732.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract>
<sec id="sec001">
<title>Background</title>
<p>Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec002">
<title>Objective</title>
<p>To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec003">
<title>Methods</title>
<p>An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec004">
<title>Results</title>
<p>For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec005">
<title>Conclusions</title>
<p>This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<funding-group>
<funding-statement>The first author (MB) is the sole employee (and owner) of Adapt Research Ltd. Adapt Research Ltd provided support in the form of salary for MB, but the study was otherwise self-funded by the authors. The authors received no additional university or external funding. Adapt Research Ltd had no additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of the authors are articulated in the 'author contributions' section.</funding-statement>
</funding-group>
<counts>
<fig-count count="0"></fig-count>
<table-count count="3"></table-count>
<page-count count="12"></page-count>
</counts>
<custom-meta-group>
<custom-meta id="data-availability">
<meta-name>Data Availability</meta-name>
<meta-value>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
<notes>
<title>Data Availability</title>
<p>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</p>
</notes>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>

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