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Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Identifieur interne : 001B27 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001B26; suivant : 001B28

Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Auteurs : Zoie Shui-Yee Wong [Australie] ; David Goldsman [États-Unis] ; Kwok-Leung Tsui [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

RBID : PMC:4731466

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Background

School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.

Methodology

This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.

Findings

The estimated cost of the study’s baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.

Conclusion

This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147052
PubMed: 26820982
PubMed Central: 4731466

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PMC:4731466

Le document en format XML

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<title>Background</title>
<p>School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.</p>
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<title>Methodology</title>
<p>This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.</p>
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<title>Findings</title>
<p>The estimated cost of the study’s baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.</p>
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<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.</p>
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<title xml:lang="en">Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic</title>
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<name sortKey="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" sort="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" uniqKey="Wong Z" first="Zoie Shui-Yee" last="Wong">Zoie Shui-Yee Wong</name>
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<addr-line>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</addr-line>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>New South Wales</wicri:noRegion>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Goldsman, David" sort="Goldsman, David" uniqKey="Goldsman D" first="David" last="Goldsman">David Goldsman</name>
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<addr-line>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line>
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<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Tsui, Kwok Leung" sort="Tsui, Kwok Leung" uniqKey="Tsui K" first="Kwok-Leung" last="Tsui">Kwok-Leung Tsui</name>
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<nlm:aff id="aff003">
<addr-line>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</addr-line>
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<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion>
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<idno type="RBID">PMC:4731466</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0147052</idno>
<date when="2016">2016</date>
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<title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" sort="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" uniqKey="Wong Z" first="Zoie Shui-Yee" last="Wong">Zoie Shui-Yee Wong</name>
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<addr-line>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>New South Wales</wicri:noRegion>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Goldsman, David" sort="Goldsman, David" uniqKey="Goldsman D" first="David" last="Goldsman">David Goldsman</name>
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<nlm:aff id="aff002">
<addr-line>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea>
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<region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Tsui, Kwok Leung" sort="Tsui, Kwok Leung" uniqKey="Tsui K" first="Kwok-Leung" last="Tsui">Kwok-Leung Tsui</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff003">
<addr-line>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion>
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<series>
<title level="j">PLoS ONE</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2016">2016</date>
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<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<sec id="sec001">
<title>Background</title>
<p>School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec002">
<title>Methodology</title>
<p>This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec003">
<title>Findings</title>
<p>The estimated cost of the study’s baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec004">
<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.</div>
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