Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
Identifieur interne : 000C40 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C39; suivant : 000C41Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
Auteurs : Zoie Shui-Yee Wong [Australie] ; David Goldsman [États-Unis] ; Kwok-Leung Tsui [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.
This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.
The estimated cost of the study’s baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.
This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147052
PubMed: 26820982
PubMed Central: 4731466
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic</title><author><name sortKey="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" sort="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" uniqKey="Wong Z" first="Zoie Shui-Yee" last="Wong">Zoie Shui-Yee Wong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goldsman, David" sort="Goldsman, David" uniqKey="Goldsman D" first="David" last="Goldsman">David Goldsman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsui, Kwok Leung" sort="Tsui, Kwok Leung" uniqKey="Tsui K" first="Kwok-Leung" last="Tsui">Kwok-Leung Tsui</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">26820982</idno><idno type="pmc">4731466</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4731466</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:4731466</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0147052</idno><date when="2016">2016</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000C40</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000C40</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000C40</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000C40</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic</title><author><name sortKey="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" sort="Wong, Zoie Shui Yee" uniqKey="Wong Z" first="Zoie Shui-Yee" last="Wong">Zoie Shui-Yee Wong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goldsman, David" sort="Goldsman, David" uniqKey="Goldsman D" first="David" last="Goldsman">David Goldsman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsui, Kwok Leung" sort="Tsui, Kwok Leung" uniqKey="Tsui K" first="Kwok-Leung" last="Tsui">Kwok-Leung Tsui</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title><p>School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.</p></sec><sec id="sec002"><title>Methodology</title><p>This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.</p></sec><sec id="sec003"><title>Findings</title><p>The estimated cost of the study’s baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.</p></sec><sec id="sec004"><title>Conclusion</title><p>This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, CA USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26820982</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4731466</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0147052</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-15-21861</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subj-group><subject>School Closures</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Sociology</subject><subj-group><subject>Education</subject><subj-group><subject>Schools</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>People and Places</subject><subj-group><subject>Population Groupings</subject><subj-group><subject>Age Groups</subject><subj-group><subject>Children</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>People and Places</subject><subj-group><subject>Population Groupings</subject><subj-group><subject>Families</subject><subj-group><subject>Children</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Social Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Economics</subject><subj-group><subject>Economic Analysis</subject><subj-group><subject>Cost-Effectiveness Analysis</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and life sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Organisms</subject><subj-group><subject>Viruses</subject><subj-group><subject>RNA viruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Orthomyxoviruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza viruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza A virus</subject><subj-group><subject>H1N1</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and life sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Microbiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Medical microbiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Microbial pathogens</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral pathogens</subject><subj-group><subject>Orthomyxoviruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza viruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza A virus</subject><subj-group><subject>H1N1</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and health sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Pathology and laboratory medicine</subject><subj-group><subject>Pathogens</subject><subj-group><subject>Microbial pathogens</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral pathogens</subject><subj-group><subject>Orthomyxoviruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza viruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza A virus</subject><subj-group><subject>H1N1</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Biology and life sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Organisms</subject><subj-group><subject>Viruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral pathogens</subject><subj-group><subject>Orthomyxoviruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza viruses</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza A virus</subject><subj-group><subject>H1N1</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Viral Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Influenza</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject><subj-group><subject>Infectious Disease Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>Medicine and Health Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subj-group><subject>Infectious Disease Epidemiology</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v3"><subject>People and places</subject><subj-group><subject>Geographical locations</subject><subj-group><subject>Asia</subject><subj-group><subject>Hong Kong</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure: The HK H1N1 Pandemic</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wong</surname><given-names>Zoie Shui-Yee</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Goldsman</surname><given-names>David</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tsui</surname><given-names>Kwok-Leung</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff003"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff001"><label>1</label><addr-line>School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff002"><label>2</label><addr-line>School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff003"><label>3</label><addr-line>Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Munayco</surname><given-names>Cesar V</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, UNITED STATES</addr-line></aff><author-notes><fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="coi001"><p><bold>Competing Interests: </bold>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con" id="contrib001"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: ZSYW DG KLT. Performed the experiments: ZSYW. Analyzed the data: ZSYW DG. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: ZSYW DG KLT. Wrote the paper: ZSYW DG KLT.</p></fn><corresp id="cor001">* E-mail: <email>zoiesywong@gmail.com</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>1</month><year>2016</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2016</year></pub-date><volume>11</volume><issue>1</issue><elocation-id>e0147052</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>20</day><month>5</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>28</day><month>12</month><year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2016 Wong et al</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2016</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Wong et al</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link>, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="pone.0147052.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title><p>School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.</p></sec><sec id="sec002"><title>Methodology</title><p>This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.</p></sec><sec id="sec003"><title>Findings</title><p>The estimated cost of the study’s baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases), and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.</p></sec><sec id="sec004"><title>Conclusion</title><p>This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.</p></sec></abstract><funding-group><funding-statement>This research was supported by the Research Grants Council Collaborative Research Fund (Ref. CityU8/CRF/12G), Theme-Based Research Scheme (Ref.: T32-102/14N) and The National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. 71420107023). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><fig-count count="9"></fig-count><table-count count="3"></table-count><page-count count="18"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta id="data-availability"><meta-name>Data Availability</meta-name><meta-value>Data from the Census and Statistics Department HKSAR are publicly available and can be found in the following URL: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11200552011XXXXB0100.pdf">http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11200552011XXXXB0100.pdf</ext-link>.</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta><notes><title>Data Availability</title><p>Data from the Census and Statistics Department HKSAR are publicly available and can be found in the following URL: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11200552011XXXXB0100.pdf">http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11200552011XXXXB0100.pdf</ext-link>.</p></notes></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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