The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights
Identifieur interne : 002047 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 002046; suivant : 002048The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights
Auteurs : Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon] ; Tetsuro Kobayashi ; Yichi Yang ; Katsuma Hayashi ; Takeshi Miyama ; Ryo Kinoshita ; Natalie M. Linton ; Sung-Mok Jung ; Baoyin Yuan ; Ayako Suzuki ; Andrei R. AkhmetzhanovSource :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)—the actual risk of death among all infected individuals—is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958.
Url:
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020419
PubMed: 32033064
PubMed Central: 7074297
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000479
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000479
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000002
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: 000051
- to stream PubMed, to step Curation: 000051
- to stream PubMed, to step Checkpoint: 000005
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 002047
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 002047
Links to Exploration step
PMC:7074297Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights</title><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00419">Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00419">Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan;<email>takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32033064</idno><idno type="pmc">7074297</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074297</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7074297</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020419</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000479</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000479</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000479</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000479</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000002</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000002</idno><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32033064</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000051</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000051</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000051</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000051</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000005</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000005</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">002047</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">002047</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">002047</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights</title><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00419">Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00419">Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan;<email>takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00419">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>katsuma5miffy@gmail.com</email> (K.H.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email> (N.M.L.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.);</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)—the actual risk of death among all infected individuals—is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H. Nishiura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, S M" uniqKey="Jung S">S.-M. Jung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, N M" uniqKey="Linton N">N.M. Linton</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, R" uniqKey="Kinoshita R">R. Kinoshita</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y. Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, K" uniqKey="Hayashi K">K. Hayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, T" uniqKey="Kobayashi T">T. Kobayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, B" uniqKey="Yuan B">B. Yuan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, A R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A">A.R. Akhmetzhanov</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Li, Q" uniqKey="Li Q">Q. Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, X" uniqKey="Guan X">X. Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, L" uniqKey="Zhou L">L. Zhou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tong, Y" uniqKey="Tong Y">Y. Tong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ren, R" uniqKey="Ren R">R. Ren</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, K S M" uniqKey="Leung K">K.S.M. Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, E H Y" uniqKey="Lau E">E.H.Y. Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, J Y" uniqKey="Wong J">J.Y. Wong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Read, J M" uniqKey="Read J">J.M. Read</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bridgen, J R E" uniqKey="Bridgen J">J.R.E. Bridgen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, D A T" uniqKey="Cummings D">D.A.T. Cummings</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, A" uniqKey="Ho A">A. Ho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jewell, C P" uniqKey="Jewell C">C.P. Jewell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jung, S M" uniqKey="Jung S">S.-M. Jung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, A R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A">A.R. Akhmetzhanov</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, K" uniqKey="Hayashi K">K. Hayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, N M" uniqKey="Linton N">N.M. Linton</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y. Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, B" uniqKey="Yuan B">B. Yuan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, T" uniqKey="Kobayashi T">T. Kobayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, R" uniqKey="Kinoshita R">R. Kinoshita</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H. Nishiura</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, J Y" uniqKey="Wong J">J.Y. Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H. Nishiura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goldstein, E" uniqKey="Goldstein E">E. Goldstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, E H" uniqKey="Lau E">E.H. Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, L" uniqKey="Yang L">L. Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chuang, S K" uniqKey="Chuang S">S.K. Chuang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsang, T" uniqKey="Tsang T">T. Tsang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Peiris, J S" uniqKey="Peiris J">J.S. Peiris</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J T" uniqKey="Wu J">J.T. Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name></noCountry><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/PandemieGrippaleV1/Data/Ncbi/Checkpoint
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 002047 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Checkpoint/biblio.hfd -nk 002047 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= PandemieGrippaleV1
|flux= Ncbi
|étape= Checkpoint
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:7074297
|texte= The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Checkpoint/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32033064" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Checkpoint/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34. |  |