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The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights.

Identifieur interne : 000005 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000004; suivant : 000006

The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights.

Auteurs : Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon] ; Tetsuro Kobayashi [Japon] ; Yichi Yang [Japon] ; Katsuma Hayashi [Japon] ; Takeshi Miyama [Japon] ; Ryo Kinoshita [Japon] ; Natalie M. Linton [Japon] ; Sung-Mok Jung [Japon] ; Baoyin Yuan [Japon] ; Ayako Suzuki [Japon] ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov [Japon]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32033064

Abstract

From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958.

DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020419
PubMed: 32033064


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Le document en format XML

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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958.</div>
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<Initials>A</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<LastName>Akhmetzhanov</LastName>
<ForeName>Andrei R</ForeName>
<Initials>AR</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
</AuthorList>
<Language>eng</Language>
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<Grant>
<GrantID>JP18fk0108050</GrantID>
<Agency>Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development</Agency>
<Country></Country>
</Grant>
<Grant>
<GrantID>17H04701, 17H05808, 18H04895 and 19H01074; R.K.: 18J21587</GrantID>
<Agency>Japan Society for the Promotion of Science</Agency>
<Country></Country>
</Grant>
<Grant>
<GrantID>NA</GrantID>
<Agency>Inamori Foundation</Agency>
<Country></Country>
</Grant>
<Grant>
<GrantID>JPMJCR1413</GrantID>
<Agency>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology</Agency>
<Country></Country>
</Grant>
<Grant>
<GrantID>NA</GrantID>
<Agency>Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology</Agency>
<Country></Country>
</Grant>
<Grant>
<GrantID>NA</GrantID>
<Agency>China Scholarship Council</Agency>
<Country></Country>
</Grant>
</GrantList>
<PublicationTypeList>
<PublicationType UI="D016421">Editorial</PublicationType>
</PublicationTypeList>
<ArticleDate DateType="Electronic">
<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>02</Month>
<Day>04</Day>
</ArticleDate>
</Article>
<MedlineJournalInfo>
<Country>Switzerland</Country>
<MedlineTA>J Clin Med</MedlineTA>
<NlmUniqueID>101606588</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>2077-0383</ISSNLinking>
</MedlineJournalInfo>
<KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM">
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">ascertainment</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">diagnosis</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">importation</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">statistical inference</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">travel</Keyword>
</KeywordList>
<CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflicts of interest.</CoiStatement>
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<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted">
<Year>2020</Year>
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<Day>03</Day>
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<Month>2</Month>
<Day>9</Day>
<Hour>6</Hour>
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<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed">
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<PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline">
<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>2</Month>
<Day>9</Day>
<Hour>6</Hour>
<Minute>1</Minute>
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</History>
<PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus>
<ArticleIdList>
<ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32033064</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="pii">jcm9020419</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3390/jcm9020419</ArticleId>
<ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7074297</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
<ReferenceList>
<Reference>
<Citation>Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Apr 15;177(8):834-40</Citation>
<ArticleIdList>
<ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23459950</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference>
<Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Jan 24;9(2):</Citation>
<ArticleIdList>
<ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31991628</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference>
<Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Jan 29;:</Citation>
<ArticleIdList>
<ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31995857</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
<Reference>
<Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 14;9(2):</Citation>
<ArticleIdList>
<ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32075152</ArticleId>
</ArticleIdList>
</Reference>
</ReferenceList>
</PubmedData>
</pubmed>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Japon</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="Japon">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
<name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name>
<name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name>
<name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name>
<name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name>
<name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M" last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name>
<name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name>
<name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name>
<name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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