A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment
Identifieur interne : 000567 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000566; suivant : 000568A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment
Auteurs : Murray E. Alexander ; Seyed M. Moghadas ; Gergely Röst [Hongrie] ; Jianhong WuSource :
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology [ 0092-8240 ] ; 2007.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Acceptation des soins par le patient, Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique), Attitude envers la santé, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (), Diagnostic précoce, Facteurs temps, Flambées de maladies (), Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Incidence, Modèles logistiques, Orthomyxoviridae (pathogénicité), Prise en charge de la maladie, Transmission de maladie infectieuse ().
- MESH :
- pathogénicité : Orthomyxoviridae.
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Acceptation des soins par le patient, Attitude envers la santé, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses, Diagnostic précoce, Facteurs temps, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Humains, Incidence, Modèles logistiques, Prise en charge de la maladie, Transmission de maladie infectieuse.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use), Attitude to Health, Communicable Disease Control (statistics & numerical data), Disease Management, Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data), Disease Transmission, Infectious (prevention & control), Disease Transmission, Infectious (statistics & numerical data), Early Diagnosis, Humans, Incidence, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (therapy), Logistic Models, Orthomyxoviridae (pathogenicity), Patient Acceptance of Health Care, Time Factors.
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- pathogenicity : Orthomyxoviridae.
- prevention & control : Disease Transmission, Infectious.
- statistics & numerical data : Communicable Disease Control, Disease Outbreaks, Disease Transmission, Infectious.
- therapy : Influenza, Human.
- Attitude to Health, Disease Management, Early Diagnosis, Humans, Incidence, Logistic Models, Patient Acceptance of Health Care, Time Factors.
Abstract
The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the density of infected individuals in terms of the time elapsed since the onset of symptoms. We show that such a model can be expressed by a system of delay differential equations with both discrete and distributed delays. The model is analyzed to derive the criterion for disease control based on two critical factors: (i) the profile of treatment rate; and (ii) the level of treatment as a function of time lag in commencing therapy. Numerical results are also obtained to illustrate the feasible region of disease control. Our findings show that due to uncertainty in the attack rate of a pandemic strain, initiating therapy immediately upon diagnosis can significantly increase the likelihood of disease control and substantially reduce the required community-level of treatment. This suggests that reliable diagnostic methods for influenza cases should be rapidly implemented within an antiviral treatment strategy.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-007-9257-2
PubMed: 17701376
PubMed Central: 7088798
Affiliations:
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PMC:7088798Le document en format XML
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when="2007">2007</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use)</term><term>Attitude to Health</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Disease Management</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious (prevention & control)</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Early Diagnosis</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (therapy)</term><term>Logistic Models</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae (pathogenicity)</term><term>Patient Acceptance of Health Care</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Acceptation des soins par le patient</term><term>Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique)</term><term>Attitude envers la santé</term><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses ()</term><term>Diagnostic précoce</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Flambées de maladies ()</term><term>Grippe humaine ()</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Modèles logistiques</term><term>Orthomyxoviridae (pathogénicité)</term><term>Prise en charge de la maladie</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse ()</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="therapeutic use" xml:lang="en"><term>Antiviral Agents</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Orthomyxoviridae</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogénicité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Orthomyxoviridae</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Disease Transmission, Infectious</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="therapy" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="usage thérapeutique" xml:lang="fr"><term>Antiviraux</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Attitude to Health</term><term>Disease Management</term><term>Early Diagnosis</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Logistic Models</term><term>Patient Acceptance of Health Care</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Acceptation des soins par le patient</term><term>Attitude envers la santé</term><term>Contrôle des maladies contagieuses</term><term>Diagnostic précoce</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Modèles logistiques</term><term>Prise en charge de la maladie</term><term>Transmission de maladie infectieuse</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the density of infected individuals in terms of the time elapsed since the onset of symptoms. We show that such a model can be expressed by a system of delay differential equations with both discrete and distributed delays. The model is analyzed to derive the criterion for disease control based on two critical factors: (i) the profile of treatment rate; and (ii) the level of treatment as a function of time lag in commencing therapy. Numerical results are also obtained to illustrate the feasible region of disease control. Our findings show that due to uncertainty in the attack rate of a pandemic strain, initiating therapy immediately upon diagnosis can significantly increase the likelihood of disease control and substantially reduce the required community-level of treatment. This suggests that reliable diagnostic methods for influenza cases should be rapidly implemented within an antiviral treatment strategy.
</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Arino, J" uniqKey="Arino J">J. Arino</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brauer, F" uniqKey="Brauer F">F. Brauer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Den Driessche, P" uniqKey="Van Den Driessche P">P. van den Driessche</name></author><author><name sortKey="Watmough, J" uniqKey="Watmough J">J. Watmough</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J. Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Baccam, P" uniqKey="Baccam P">P. Baccam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Beauchemin, C" uniqKey="Beauchemin C">C. Beauchemin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Macken, C A" uniqKey="Macken C">C.A. Macken</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hayden, F G" uniqKey="Hayden F">F.G. Hayden</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perelson, A S" uniqKey="Perelson A">A.S. 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Cummings</name></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M E" uniqKey="Halloran M">M.E. Halloran</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Metz, J A J" uniqKey="Metz J">J.A.J. Metz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O. Diekmann</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Smith, H L" uniqKey="Smith H">H.L. Smith</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Stilianakis, N I" uniqKey="Stilianakis N">N.I. Stilianakis</name></author><author><name sortKey="Perelson, A S" uniqKey="Perelson A">A.S. Perelson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hayden, F G" uniqKey="Hayden F">F.G. Hayden</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Taubenberger, J K" uniqKey="Taubenberger J">J.K. Taubenberger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Morens, D M" uniqKey="Morens D">D.M. Morens</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Webb, G F" uniqKey="Webb G">G.F. Webb</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Hongrie</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Alexander, Murray E" sort="Alexander, Murray E" uniqKey="Alexander M" first="Murray E." last="Alexander">Murray E. Alexander</name><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M." last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name></noCountry><country name="Hongrie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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