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A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment

Identifieur interne : 000223 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 000222; suivant : 000224

A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment

Auteurs : Murray E. Alexander ; Seyed M. Moghadas ; Gergely Röst ; Jianhong Wu

Source :

RBID : PMC:7088798

Abstract

The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the density of infected individuals in terms of the time elapsed since the onset of symptoms. We show that such a model can be expressed by a system of delay differential equations with both discrete and distributed delays. The model is analyzed to derive the criterion for disease control based on two critical factors: (i) the profile of treatment rate; and (ii) the level of treatment as a function of time lag in commencing therapy. Numerical results are also obtained to illustrate the feasible region of disease control. Our findings show that due to uncertainty in the attack rate of a pandemic strain, initiating therapy immediately upon diagnosis can significantly increase the likelihood of disease control and substantially reduce the required community-level of treatment. This suggests that reliable diagnostic methods for influenza cases should be rapidly implemented within an antiviral treatment strategy.


Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-007-9257-2
PubMed: 17701376
PubMed Central: 7088798

Links to Exploration step

PMC:7088798

Le document en format XML

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<p>The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the density of infected individuals in terms of the time elapsed since the onset of symptoms. We show that such a model can be expressed by a system of delay differential equations with both discrete and distributed delays. The model is analyzed to derive the criterion for disease control based on two critical factors: (i) the profile of treatment rate; and (ii) the level of treatment as a function of time lag in commencing therapy. Numerical results are also obtained to illustrate the feasible region of disease control. Our findings show that due to uncertainty in the attack rate of a pandemic strain, initiating therapy immediately upon diagnosis can significantly increase the likelihood of disease control and substantially reduce the required community-level of treatment. This suggests that reliable diagnostic methods for influenza cases should be rapidly implemented within an antiviral treatment strategy. </p>
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<institution>Institute for Biodiagnostics,</institution>
<institution>National Research Council Canada,</institution>
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Winnipeg, MB Canada R3B 1Y6</aff>
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<label>2</label>
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<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000117034731</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Mathematics and Statistics,</institution>
<institution>The University of Winnipeg,</institution>
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Winnipeg, MB Canada R3B 2E9</aff>
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<institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.267457.5</institution-id>
<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000117034731</institution-id>
<institution>Department of Physics,</institution>
<institution>The University of Winnipeg,</institution>
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Winnipeg, MB Canada R3B 2E9</aff>
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<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000110169625</institution-id>
<institution>Analysis and Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bolyai Institute,</institution>
<institution>University of Szeged,</institution>
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Aradi vértanúk tere 1, 6720 Szeged, Hungary</aff>
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<institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000419369430</institution-id>
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<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>16</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2007</year>
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<pub-date pub-type="ppub">
<year>2008</year>
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<volume>70</volume>
<issue>2</issue>
<fpage>382</fpage>
<lpage>397</lpage>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>30</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2007</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>22</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2007</year>
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<permissions>
<copyright-statement>© Society for Mathematical Biology 2007</copyright-statement>
<license>
<license-p>This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.</license-p>
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<abstract id="Abs1">
<p>The use of antiviral drugs has been recognized as the primary public health strategy for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic strain. However, the success of this strategy requires the prompt onset of therapy within 48 hours of the appearance of clinical symptoms. This requirement may be captured by a compartmental model that monitors the density of infected individuals in terms of the time elapsed since the onset of symptoms. We show that such a model can be expressed by a system of delay differential equations with both discrete and distributed delays. The model is analyzed to derive the criterion for disease control based on two critical factors: (i) the profile of treatment rate; and (ii) the level of treatment as a function of time lag in commencing therapy. Numerical results are also obtained to illustrate the feasible region of disease control. Our findings show that due to uncertainty in the attack rate of a pandemic strain, initiating therapy immediately upon diagnosis can significantly increase the likelihood of disease control and substantially reduce the required community-level of treatment. This suggests that reliable diagnostic methods for influenza cases should be rapidly implemented within an antiviral treatment strategy. </p>
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<kwd-group xml:lang="en">
<title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Influenza pandemic</kwd>
<kwd>Antiviral treatment</kwd>
<kwd>Delay equations</kwd>
<kwd>Epidemic model</kwd>
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Ou

HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 000223 | SxmlIndent | more

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

{{Explor lien
   |wiki=    Sante
   |area=    PandemieGrippaleV1
   |flux=    Pmc
   |étape=   Corpus
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     PMC:7088798
   |texte=   A Delay Differential Model for Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Treatment
}}

Pour générer des pages wiki

HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/RBID.i   -Sk "pubmed:17701376" \
       | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/biblio.hfd   \
       | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a PandemieGrippaleV1 

Wicri

This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.34.
Data generation: Wed Jun 10 11:04:28 2020. Site generation: Sun Mar 28 09:10:28 2021